Well, I got absolutely shellacked on that Thursday Night Game, so I’m starting off 0-1 this week. I should have just listened to my own breakdown where I said Miami had a better quality of competition and Jacksonville gives up a lot of points. I did get the under right though and had the Jags’ back up kicker made the PAT, I would have had JAX covering 17.5. Credit to Miami who mixed up their coverages and gave Gardner Minshew headaches all night long.
They put constant pressure in his face and the absence of D.J. Chark had a huge impact on the passing game but James Robinson still looked good, scoring twice. However, this was Ryan Fitzpatrick’s night. He started the game 11/11 passing with a pair of touchdowns and sealed the deal with a rushing score (shout out to my buddy Drew who rolled the dice on Fitz in fantasy). Jacksonville played like crap all night long but, on the bright side, I like those color rush uniforms.
So, we’re not off to a great start but here’s the rest of those picks:
(2-0)Las Vegas Raiders at (1-1)New England Patriots (-6, 47.5)
Breakdown: The Raiders looked good in their home opener against the Saints while the Patriots almost beat the Seahawks in Seattle. New England is notoriously tough on QBs, and rest assured the Pats aren’t going to run the same kind of defense New Orleans was. West coast teams headed to the East coast for morning games don’t have it easy, especially when facing Bill Belichick. Vegas is going to show up and I’ll take ‘em to cover 6, but I like NE to edge out a win.
Pick: Patriots
Vs Spread: Raiders
(2-0)Los Angeles Rams at (2-0)Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 48)
Breakdown: This is a hard game to pick as a Bills fan. That early game is rough on West coast teams heading East, but I feel the Rams run the kind of offense that travels well. Linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano were back at practice on Thursday as limited participants so and it’ll be a much different game if they play. It should be fun to watch Stefon Diggs vs Jalen Ramsey all day too. Both teams have shown scoring potential and defensive vulnerability so it has the potential to be a high scoring affair, over 48-pts. This is the first real test of the season for the Bills and Aaron Donald has the potential to wreak havoc so I’m going to take the Rams, that way it’ll be less of a blow if Buffalo loses and more enjoyable if they do win. I want to get it right, but being wrong still benefits me here and I’m not super confident either way.
Pick: Rams
Vs Spread: Rams
(0-2)Houston Texans at (2-0)Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 45)
Breakdown: The Texans have to start improving a little bit, right? They still didn’t look good against the Ravens last week, but when you want to talk about strength of schedule that’s as tough as it gets. It doesn’t get much easier with Steelers. That Pittsburgh defense is going to come after Deshaun Watson and that doesn’t bode well for the Texans. This may be the kind of game where Watson’s athleticism goes a long way but I also don’t have faith in Houston head coach Bill O’Brien either, so I’m going to have to keep picking against them until they show me something. With Ju Ju still not practicing for Pitt, it could be a lower output game. Under 45.
Pick: Steelers
Vs Spread: Steelers
(1-1)San Francisco 49ers at (0-2)New York Giants (+4, 41.5)
Breakdown: Of all the teams to get bitten by the injury bug, the 49ers got eaten alive. No matter how you slice it, San Francisco is banged up coming into this week even if a few of their injured starters do indeed play. The upside is they are play a Giants team that hasn’t performed well at all and also lost their best player, Saquon Barkley, for the season. I imagine the Niners try to get through this game with as little risk as possible. Run the ball, play defense, burn clock. I’ll take SF in a low scoring game. Under 41.5.
Pick: Niners
Vs Spread: Niners
(2-0)Tennessee Titans at (0-2)Minnesota Vikings (+2.5, 49)
Breakdown: The Titans played with the lead most of the game against the Jags last week and the Vikings have played without it for the majority of the season. Minnesota just looks discombobulated on both sides of the ball, giving up 35.5-pts/game while only scoring 42 total, so it’s hard to trust them at all. Tennessee is still bringing Derrick Henry to the party and Minny has given up over 150-yards on the ground in both games so far. I know the Vikings are home but there’s nothing to be enthusiastic about. Titans by 2.5-pts seems like the obvious choice and I’ll take the under.
Pick: Titans
Vs Spread: Titans
(1-1)Washington Football Team at (1-1)Cleveland Browns (-7, 45)
Breakdown: The Browns got into the win column with a win at home over the Bengals while Washington came back down to Earth after a loss at the hands of the Cardinals. Both of these teams have struggled when playing a good defense, but that won’t be the case when they play one another so I’ll take the over at 45. Washington leads the league in sacks (11) but Cleveland has run the ball well this seasons and they’re going to try to lean on that and force 2nd year QB Dwayne Haskins to win the game through the air. However, the Browns have given up the most passing TDs (6) this season and their secondary may be without Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. Cleveland is the slightly more experience team, playing at home, so I’ll take them to win but I’m not so confident they cover the 7 points.
Pick: Browns
Vs Spread: Washington
(0-2)Cincinnati Bengals at (0-2)Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 46.5)
Breakdown: It’s only a matter of time before Cincinnati rookie QB Joe Burrow wins his first game. The Bengals have looked better each week in narrow losses while the Eagles have not. They’ve given up a lot of points and they haven’t scored much either, plus they just lost rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor to injured reserve. The Bengals haven’t been able to stop the run yet so expect Miles Sanders to have a good day for Philly. Burrow can move and throw so he’ll keep Cincy alive and Philly may be without Fletcher Cox. If the Eags can limit the turnovers and control time-of-possession, they should win. However, they’ve burned me twice already so I’m torn. The Bengals have almost won twice, and the Eagles haven’t come close…let’s go with Cincy and the under.
Pick: Bengals
Vs Spread: Bengals
(2-0)Chicago Bears at (0-2)Atlanta Falcons (-3, 48)
Breakdown: This is going to be a weird one. Chicago plays low-scoring defensive games to get wins, Atlanta gets into shootouts and loses. The way the Falcons lost to the Cowboys last week was gutting, but the Bears narrowly avoided losing to the Giants with no Saqoun Barkley. I don’t want to do it, seriously, but I think I have to go with ATL here. They should have beaten Dallas on the road and, while their defense gives up a lot, they should still outpace the Bears. I’m looking at the under here.
Pick: Falcons
Vs Spread: Falcons
(0-2)New York Jets at (1-1)Indianapolis Colts (-11, 44)
Breakdown: This is th biggest spread I’ve seen so far this season, so the real question is: how bad can the Jets be? They are seriously banged up but they were a sub .500 team when healthy. The Colts figured some things out against the Vikings and Lucas Oil Stadium is a shadowy nightmare during the early slot. New York has lost by double digits in both games so I can see why the oddsmakers are leaning that way but it still seems like a huge spread. Colts are the lock of the week in a one-sided, fairly low scoring affair. Under 44.
Pick: Colts
Vs Spread: Colts
(0-2)Carolina Panthers at (1-1)Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 44.5)
Breakdown: The Panthers aren’t as bad as their record indicates and neither are the Chargers. The loss of Christian McCaffrey for a few weeks certainly hurts Carolina’s chances but Mike Davis is a capable running back and the offense remains mostly the same. Justin Herbert looks to be the starter moving forward for Los Angeles. Head Coach Anthony Lynn was never really invested in Tyrod Taylor, but a punctured lung at the hands of the team doctor is a messed up way for T2 to lose his job. The Bolts have played some close games with teams on both ends of the spectrum, so I think the spread is a little robust in this matchup. I like LA to win but I’ll take the Panthers to cover along with the over.
Pick: Chargers
Vs Spread: Panthers
(0-2)Detroit Lions at (2-0)Arizona Cardinals (-6, 55)
Breakdown: Detroit has started strong in both of their games this season but wound up get clobbered down the stretch. Arizona has looked like one of the best teams in the league thus far, so you do the math. The Cards should win with relative ease and I’ll take the under.
Pick: Cardinals
Vs Spread: Cardinals
(1-1)Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (0-2)Denver Broncos (+6, 43.5)
Breakdown: Tom Brady got his first win as a Buccaneer last week and the Saints’ loss has them tied for the division lead. Denver lost their starting QB and No.1 wide receiver last week, so it’ll be a rough week with Tampa Bay coming to town. Wide receiver Chris Godwin was back at practice and will probably play so the only thing TB really has to worry about is fatigue at Mile High Stadium. Even if they do get tired, I expect they’ll be playing with the lead. Brady & Co. to cover and the over at 43.5.
Pick: Bucs
Vs Spread: Bucs
(1-1)Dallas Cowboys at (2-0)Seattle Seahawks (-5, 55.5)
Breakdown: The Cowboys burned me many times last season and already once this year with that miracle against the Falcons. My personal dislike for the organization aside, they should be 0-2. Their defense isn’t good and the offense isn’t much better. Russell Wilson is looking like he may finally win his MVP this season but, unfortunately, the Seahawks defense has been eviscerated while playing with the lead. They are a big play group as we saw against the Patriots, but you don’t want to let the Boys hang around. I’m fairly certain the Hawks are the superior team but the spread here isn’t ideal. I’ll take over on 55.5 though.
Pick: Seahawks
Vs Spread: Cowboys
(2-0)Green Bay Packers at (1-1)New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)
Breakdown: Green Bay has been running a very efficient offense and putting up big numbers as a result. New Orleans struggled on both sides of the ball after getting off to a 17-7 start against the Raiders on Monday night. Michael Thomas’ absence limits what Drew Brees and Sean Payton want to do offensively which doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup. I’m surprised they are favored in this game to be honest and I’ll gladly take the Packers to win, even without Davante Adams. It’ll probably be under 52.5 though.
Pick: Packers
Vs Spread: Packers
(2-0)Kansas City Chiefs at (2-0)Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 54)
Breakdown: The showdown for AFC supremacy came a little earlier than I think any of us would have liked, but here we are in Week 3. Baltimore has looked like the better team so far, winning both of their games with ease and handling their common opponent, the Texans, in a more dominant fashion. Of course, you can never count out Patrick Mahomes but he’s struggled a little with his accuracy this season and the Ravens have an opportunistic defense. Possessions are likely to be at a premium in this game and I expect Baltimore to get out to an early lead and hang on for the home win. I’m hoping we get to see the game we’d expect out of these two teams and I’ll take over 54 on that.
Pick: Ravens
Vs Spread: Ravens