I ended up with so much on my plate between wedding planning, trying to stay on top of movies, running the film club, and working on the movie podcast stuff that I ran out of time and completely forgot to do the Pick Em Show last week. I even forgot to do Rid’s picks and the whole shebang. Somehow, I remembered the part where I actually had to make picks, but it still wasn’t exactly pretty.
| Nick W | Nick L | Nick T | ATS W | ATS L | ATS P | O/U W | O/U L | O/U P | Christen W | Christen L | Christen T | |||
| 9 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 0 | |||
| Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | |||
| 18 | 14 | 0 | 17 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 19 | 13 | 0 | |||
| Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | |||
| 27 | 21 | 0 | 27 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 1 | 28 | 20 | 0 |
As you can see, it’s still pretty sloppy for me. I have managed not to slip below .500 yet but 9-7 isn’t impressive. I’ll take the 10-6 ATS but the over/under still pains me every week. Christen tied me at 9-7 this week and maintains her one-game lead in the overall. Since I didn’t even get around to this until Thursday, let’s first take a look at this Thursday Night Football game between the Lions and the Packers before I rewind the Week 3 stuff.
With the Vikings decidedly dropping the ball as the heir apparent to the NFC North throne, the Lions have staked their claim as the best team in the division. However, in order to cement that status, they still have to do things like go on the road and win in Green Bay, in primetime, on the national stage. Fortunately for Detroit, they have won their last three games against the Packers including doing all those aforementioned things to close out last season on Sunday Night Football.
The Lions are dealing with a number of injuries along the offensive line and a banged-up David Montgomery, so maybe they can’t dictate the game on the ground or protect Jared Goff as much as they’d like. However, the Packers are dealing with their own O-line issues and, like clockwork, left tackle David Bakhtiari is on injured reserve. Elgton Jenkins is out too with Zach Tom questionable at the other tackle position. So, I’d say that favors the very good Lions’ edge rush.
Offensively, Detroit already had the edge vs. an Aaron Rodgers-led squad last season so the gap should widen here. Factor in a dinged-up Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell out and it could be a long night for the Green Bay defense.
The Lions own a win against their common opponent, the Falcons, and they won that game easily. They also have a better quality of competition overall as the Packers’ win over the Bears has aged poorly. Plus, Green Bay was gifted some bogus pass interference calls that helped them circumvent a 14-point 4th-quarter deficit to the Saints after the Derek Carr injury opened the door to a big momentum swing.
All in all, the Lions absolutely should win this game, but Lambeau is a tough place to play and I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see some questionable calls keep it closer than maybe it should be. That said, Detroit is only favored by 2 points so I am good with them covering in a very close game, and due to the sloppy nature of Thursday football in general I am looking at over 45 total points.
Neither of the Monday double-header games were all that good, and they certainly weren’t worth the double bill as The Bengals continued to struggle but managed to fend off the Rams 19-16 on the back of Ja’Marr Chase getting back in sync with Joe Burrow. Down in Tampa, Baker Mayfield’s run as the only QB without a turnover ended emphatically as the Eagles more or less dominated, 25-11.
The Sunday night game wasn’t without drama, but we all knew going in that both the Raiders and the Steelers are pretty mid-tier teams. Maybe on the high end, one of them can snag the last playoff spot, and that’s looking like it would be the Steelers since they cruised the majority of the way to a 23-18 win. Jimmy G was not thee answer for Vegas, he was just what was available and when he had an elite defense and didn’t turn the ball over, he could win games. Now he has neither of those and we are seeing the results, plus he went into concussion protocol.
The biggest surprise of the week had to be the Cardinals upsetting the Cowboys 28-16. They likely busted a ton of knockout pools with that but they also showed us that inevitable Dallas hype derailment. The Cowboys didn’t lose a close game to a lesser team like the Bills and Chiefs in Week 1, they got absolutely handled on both sides of the ball by the Cards. Dallas will rebound, but they aren’t the top dog anymore.
Speaking of the Chiefs and Bills, they both appear to be hitting their strides. The Chiefs demolished the Bears 41-10 as you would expect of the defending champs playing at home against one of, if not, the worst team(s) in the NFL. In turn, the Bills walloped what was an unbeaten Commanders team, 37-3. Washington is better than Chicago and the Bills did that one the road. If not for a concession FG late, that would have been a shutout.
However, we can’t talk about impressive blowout wins without mentioning the Dolphins throttling the Broncos 70-20. Yeah, you read that right. I think it is the biggest margin of victory in NFL history and it highlighted how good the Fins actually are on offense with a healthy Tua, but it also showed how abysmal the Broncos are. Let’s ride.
Seattle improved to 2-1 with a 37-27 win over the Panthers, but that’s a lot of points to give up at home to a rookie QB with a middling offense. It’s not dissimilar to where the Hawks were last season, but you would like to see them clean that up if you’re a fan.
The Colts and Ravens joined Seattle at 2-1 as the Colts went into Baltimore and hung around long enough for the Ravens to implode. Indy won it in overtime with a FG, even with Anthony Richardson hurt, but the Ravens blew several opportunities with the game in hand before that. Richardson is going to have to learn to protect himself, but on the other sideline, it’s not a good look for Lamar and company given that they have been this for basically eight years now.
The other big surprise in the AFC was the Texans spanking the upstart Jaguars, 37-17. This seemed to happen to Jacksonville last year too where they established they could compete at the highest level but had issues playing down to the competition. It’s worse they lost at home and now have to go to the London game.
New England managed to pick up a division win against the Jets, 15-10, but there is nothing to write home about. Zach Wilson has always struggled against the Pats’ defense and this was no different. What this game did do was show us that the Jets may want to make a play for QB or just tank for next season.
I mentioned Minnesota earlier and they were almost able to win but ultimately fell to the Chargers 28-24. Both teams are big-time underachievers but the Vikings make a habit out of playing from behind. I’m happy to have garbage-time Kirk Cousins activated for fantasy purposes, but I said it when he signed with the Vikings and I’ll say it again now, this team isn’t getting to the next level with him. It’s not even his fault, he plays tough and takes hits to make throws, but the reality is that they are stuck, and their defense stinks. The Bolts aren’t far behind that curve either with Mike Williams now out for the year.
As I also pointed out earlier, the Packers edged the Saints, 18-17, in a game they very much should have lost while the Lions beat the Falcons 20-6. If they both play to their actual level, Detroit has the edge.
The Browns rebounded with a one-sided and dominant win over the Titans, 27-3. Tennessee is now the team I can’t trust. Where is Derrick Henry, where’s the defense, who are these guys?
And then of course, a week ago today, the 49ers scored exactly 30 points again and beat the pesky Giants 30-12. I think it was actually a good loss for the Giants if that means anything, but the 49ers stayed the course and waited for Dallas to Dallas.
The 49ers take over the top spot after Week 3 while the Texans get out of the basement with some help from the Bears, and the Broncos.
| 1. 49ers 3-0 (+1) |
| 2. Eagles 3-0 (+1) |
| 3. Dolphins 3-0 (+1) |
| 4. Bills 2-1 (+6) |
| 5. Chiefs 2-1 (+6) |
| 6. Cowboys 2-1 (-5) |
| 7. Lions 2-1 (+8) |
| 8. Seahawks 2-1 (+6) |
| 9. Steelers 2-1 (+10) |
| 10. Browns 2-1 (+13) |
| 11. Packers 2-1 (+7) |
| 12. Ravens 2-1 (-7) |
| 13. Buccaneers 2-1 (-7) |
| 14. Commanders 2-1 (-7) |
| 15. Saints 2-1 (-7) |
| 16. Falcons 2-1 (-7) |
| 17. Colts 2-1 (+3) |
| 18. Bengals 1-2 +8) |
| 19. Chargers 1-2 (+6) |
| 20. Giants 1-2 (+1) |
| 21. Rams 1-2 (-8) |
| 22. Jaguars 1-2 (-10) |
| 23. Raiders 1-2 (-1) |
| 24. Cardinals 1-2 (+5) |
| 25. Jets 1-2 (-8) |
| 26. Titans 1-2 (-10) |
| 27. Texans 1-2 (+5) |
| 28. Patriots 1-2 (-1) |
| 29. Vikings 0-3 (-5) |
| 30. Panthers 0-3 (=) |
| 31. Bears 0-3 (=) |
| 32. Broncos 0-3 (-4) |
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