It was a long and strange season that showed just how wild the NFL can be, but the 2022-23 regular season is in the books and the playoffs are on the horizon. There was also a lot of very bad football being played across the league that made such parity possible, so it will be interesting to see if that bleeds over into the postseason.
As a result, it was tough to pick games but I managed to go a respectable 11-5 on Week 18, which is solid, but I had to swap a lot of games around in order to compete in my leagues and got stuck. Christen also went 11-5 while Ridley went 8-8 on the week. I managed to go 11-5 against the spread but 7-9 vs the over/under in my continued struggle. My final record for the year was 174-94-2 for a win percentage of 64.4% which is a slight 0.1% increase from last season. Christen had a good year and also improved on last season’s rate by a small 0.15% margin, finishing at exactly 60% with a record of 162-105-3. Ridley showed that the random control measure can also be a winning strategy as she finished with a record of 147-122-2 for a 54.2% win rate.
| Nick W | Nick L | Nick T | ATS W | ATS L | ATS P | O/U W | O/U L | O/U P | Christen W | Christen L | Christen T | Rids W | Rids L | Rids T |
| 11 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous |
| 163 | 89 | 2 | 124 | 126 | 5 | 108 | 132 | 2 | 151 | 100 | 3 | 139 | 114 | 2 |
| Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall |
| 174 | 94 | 2 | 135 | 131 | 5 | 115 | 141 | 2 | 162 | 105 | 3 | 147 | 122 | 2 |
I don’t remember the format from last season’s regular season wrap up and I could just look it up but would rather barrel ahead recklessly, so let’s do this.
There are 14 total teams who made the playoffs this season, but 7 of the teams who made the tournament last season won’t be dancing again this year. That means 7 teams who didn’t make the postseason last season have a chance to upset/surprise someone.
Only 3 teams from the AFC are back in the playoffs this year which means 4 teams are returning from the NFC, so let’s start with the regular season finale that had a say in whether or not one of those NFC squads was going to make it.
Whether you were cheering for Detroit or Green Bay, the regular season came to a close in a somewhat emotional fashion as the Lions beat the Packers in Lambeau 20-16. That could have been the last time we see Aaron Rodgers in a Packers uniform or maybe in the league at all after what was a colossal disappointment of a season after another underwhelming playoff exit the year prior. He finished the game 17/27 with a TD and the costly interception on Green Bay’s final possession to seal their fate. It’s just too bad that the Lions pulling the upset didn’t get them into the postseason in the process. Both teams head into the offseason with a lot to think about, but I know which locker room I’d rather be a part of and it’s not in Green Bay.
The Dallas Cowboys came out and looked pretty disappointing in their own right, losing 26-6 to Washington and their rookie QB who was starting his first game. Don’t be fooled, this wasn’t entirely meaningless to the Cowboys and they had their starters in there for a reason and still didn’t get anything done. That loss was the difference between hosting a home playoff game and heading on the road to Tampa (where they have lost in back-to-back seasons). It was a bad look for the last game of the season, no matter how you slice it. Washington got to walk out of that game with some upward trajectory as Sam Howell made a strong debut against what is supposed to be a good defense and should pencil in as the new starter after the Carson Wentz disaster.
It took every bit of game there was for the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Rams 19-16 in overtime, but that both eliminated the Lions from contention and then got the Hawks into the postseason when Detroit beat Green Bay. I had initially pegged Seattle as a 9-8 team at the beginning of the season because I thought they were going to be better than people thought and figured they would compete for the last Wild Card spot and that’s exactly what happened. I’m happy for them. The Rams are on the other end of the spectrum as they went from Super Bowl champions to just a 5-win team thanks to losing a couple of key pieces in Von Miller and OBJ, but it was really the offensive line struggles that exacerbated their struggles. Now it looks like Sean McVay might even “retire” for a little bit.
The 49ers handled business vs the Cardinals 38-13 and snagged the #2 seed in the process. Considering all the offseason drama with Jimmy G and then the injury to Trey Lance and Jimmy having to fill in and then him getting hurt and rookie Brock Purdy taking over, it’s a testament to the systems Kyle Shanahan has in place and I would argue it’s his finest season as a head coach. Arizona had the opposite situation as they “secured” Kyler Murray for their future but couldn’t ever find momentum as a group. Kliff Kingsbury was rightly fired as his systems were completely exposed in increasingly dramatic fashion over his tenure with the Cards.
Jalen Hurts returned for the season finale to help the Eagles secure the No. 1 seed with a 22-16 win over the Giants. Philly basically controlled their spot at the top all season and have improved drastically on both sides of the ball since their playoff loss last season in Tampa. Nick Sirianni deserves a lot of credit for that and should be in the conversation for Coach of the Year. The same should be echoed of Brian Daboll who took the Giants from a 4-win team under Joe Judge, to a very solid playoff team. I’m glad he parlayed his success with the Bills into a head coaching opportunity and even though the Giants were injured much of this season as well, he helped actualize their potential. They almost beat the Vikings in Minnesota last time those two teams played and they’ll have a decent shot to do it when they face them in round one of the playoffs.
Russell Wilson kinda showed up for the second time this season in a 31-28 win over the Chargers who had nothing to play for. Wilson easily had the worst season of his career and the Broncos needed to see something to help them swallow the pill of all that guaranteed money. The Bolts didn’t want to go into the playoffs cold but also got Mike Williams hurt again in the process. The season as a whole was only a moderate improvement over last season, but they did overcome more in the injury department and made the playoffs which likely kept Brandon Staley employed. We’ll see how it goes in the postseason as they head to Jacksonville.
I may as well just congratulate Jacksonville now since they had a great turnaround this season and beat the Titans in the AFC South title game, 20-16. The Jags are one of those underdog teams I can’t help but cheer for and it was especially nice to see them beat Tennessee to get into the playoffs. During the second half of the season, Trevor Lawrence looked like he was living up to the #1 draft pick hype while Ryan Tannehill went back to being slightly above average as the Titans purged all the wide receiver and tight end talent around him. Tennessee got what it deserved, but I feel bad for Derrick Henry.
Pittsburgh found out who they were as a team this season and put it together down the stretch to give themselves a shot at the playoffs and keep Mike Tomlin’s ridiculous string of winning seasons intact with a 28-14 over their AFC North rival, Cleveland. I can’t act like I am not happy that the Browns missed the playoffs. There are a lot of players on the team that I like but they got what they paid for as an organization.
The Panthers refused to go quietly into the night and Sam Darnold going 5/15 with two picks in a 10-7 win over the Saints isn’t the best sales pitch. He also threw the pick that should have ended the game but the Carolina defense stepped up big time to give them a chance. The Saints head into the offseason scratching their heads as they have clearly shown some signs of being a good team with talent, but can’t seem to string them together week to week. I doubt Andy Dalton is in the future plans, but it doesn’t seem like Jameis Winston is either or he would have been out there. Maybe they will make a play for Aaron Rodgers in the offseason.
Miami managed to limp into the playoffs with an equally ugly 11-6 win over the Jets. After back-to-back seasons of blowing similar opportunities, they finally got over that hump with Mike McDaniel and he does deserve credit for showing us that team potential. Now it’s just a matter of whether or not they are going to trot Tua Tagovailoa out there at great risk for yet another concussion this season. The Jets squandered a 7-3 start to their season and lost six-straight games, albeit to good teams, on the way out to finish 7-10 and miss the playoffs. Zach Wilson isn’t the guy and it doesn’t look like Mike White is either, but they have talent on offense, and seeing Breece Hall go down really sucked. Maybe they will be in the Rodgers sweepstakes too.
Lovie Smith messed up the Texans’ plans of getting the #1 draft pick with a 32-31 last-minute win over the equally hapless Colts. He would be fired the next day for winning a game he wasn’t supposed to win, as the Texans finally started playing well at the end of the season. How’s that for a thank you? The Texans organization is a joke and I’m glad Smith isn’t handcuffed there, but head coaching jobs aren’t readily available. Jeff Saturday likely won’t be back as the Colts’ head coach either. He inherited a team that had no idea what they were doing at the QB position and grossly miscalculated the approach. They would have been better off with Phillip Rivers still out there, so I’m sure they will make a play for a short-term Rodgers deal.
The Bengals wrapped up the AFC North with another win over the Ravens, 27-16, that kept Cincy as the #3 seed in the AFC. After a slow start, Zach Taylor, Joe Burrow, and company reminded everyone why they went to the Super Bowl last season. These teams aren’t done yet though as the Ravens will head to Cincy in the first round of the playoffs but Lamar Jackson still isn’t practicing and Tyler Huntley is “on track”…whatever that means. Jackson gives them their best chance but he hasn’t played in some time and may have his sights set on the offseason. It’s not a great spot for the Ravens but they shoulda paid him already with all the bogus QB money we see flying around the league.
The Vikings did what they were supposed to against the Bears and won 29-13 and hung on to the #3 spot in the NFC. It was the best season of the Kirk Cousins era, but if a 13-4 team could limp into the playoffs, it would certainly be this Vikings team getting smacked up by a mediocre Packers team in Week 17 and then beating the team with the worst record in the league to close out the season. The Bears were handed that #1 pick in the draft by Lovie Smith on his way out of Houston and they are going to need to probably spend that on defense. They found an offense that works and brought in receiving help, which they can add in free agency, but the defense was dead last in points allowed and 29th in yardage allowed. It’s hard to win that way.
Buffalo came home to a palpable atmosphere and overcame quite a bit of emotion to beat the Patriots 35-23. That gave the Bills the No. 2 seed, kinda, and the opportunity to potentially play an AFC title game at a neutral site. Considering what the town and the team went through this season, what they have accomplished is nothing short of incredible and Sean McDermott should be at the top of the COTY candidates. The Patriots narrowly missed out on the postseason with that loss and now have to really examine if Mac Jones is going to be the future, especially if free-agent talent isn’t interested in going there.
Rumors were swirling that Tom Brady may go back to New England after this season and with the way things have gone in Tampa, you never know. The Bucs lost 30-17 to the Falcons to close out the season. It was a mostly meaningless game to the Bucs but they don’t really have any momentum to hang their hats on heading into the playoff game where they will be hosting the Cowboys. They have beaten Dallas in Tampa in back-to-back seasons, and I don’t really bet against Tom Brady in the playoffs, but still. Arthur Smith had the Falcons competitive almost right up until the end, but it’s clear Marcus Mariota was merely a placeholder. They let Desmond Ritter have the reigns toward the end of the season but they still have some work to do heading into next season. Still, it’s basically a push as I don’t think they got worse.
Last but not least, the Chiefs found their way back to the No. 1 seed again despite losing to both the Bills and the Bengals. I was hoping that the Raiders would show up for that game, but it got ugly fast en route to a 31-13 win for KC. I don’t think they are better than either Buffalo or Cincy, but they have the experience on their side. The Raiders had an incredibly disappointing season and how Josh McDaniels saw the end of it, I don’t know. Even Derek Carr had to sit out the last couple of games as a contingency against some guaranteed money on his contract. It seems like he is bound to leave but what was the point of bringing in Davante Adams then? They weren’t going to win the Super Bowl this season. Raiders gonna Raider, what can you do? Whatever happens, I hope Carr gets a defense for a change.
The Eagles earned the top spot on the year but the whole Top 5 is formidable and the Super Bowl winner will come from that group.
| 1. Eagles 14-3 (=) |
| 2. Bills 13-3 (+1) |
| 3. Bengals 12-4 (+1) |
| 4. Chiefs 14-3 (-1) |
| 5. 49ers 13-4 (+1) |
| 6. Vikings 13-4 (-4) |
| 7. Cowboys 12-5 (=) |
| 8. Chargers 10-7 (+1) |
| 9. Ravens 10-7 (-1) |
| 10. Giants 9-7-1 (=) |
| 11. Jaguars 9-8 (+2) |
| 12. Buccaneers 8-9 (+3) |
| 13. Seahawks 9-8 (+8) |
| 14. Dolphins 9-8 (-3) |
| 15. Lions 9-8 (-3) |
| 16. Steelers 8-9 (=) |
| 17. Patriots 8-9 (+3) |
| 18. Packers 8-9 (-1) |
| 19. Commanders 8-8-1 (-5) |
| 20. Titans 7-10 (-2) |
| 21. Jets 7-10 (-2) |
| 22. Panthers 7-10 (=) |
| 23. Saints 7-10 (=) |
| 24. Browns 7-10 (+1) |
| 25. Falcons 7-10 (+1) |
| 26. Raiders 6-11 (-2) |
| 27. Rams 5-12 (=) |
| 28. Broncos 5-12 (+3) |
| 29. Colts 4-12-1 (-1) |
| 30. Cardinals 4-13 (-1) |
| 31. Texans 3-13-1 (+1) |
| 32. Bears 3-14 (-1) |
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