When things seem too good to be true, they usually are and the Cowboys found that out as they got tested by a Titans team that really had no designs on winning. That said, I took Dallas at -13.5 and the over at 40 and I hit ’em both, but it didn’t get there the way I expected at all.
The Cowboys sort of snake-bit themselves. They turned the ball over 3 times in the first half and that allowed the Titans to hang around. Dak Prescott fumbled a snap when Dallas was up 10-0 and in a good position to add to that. On their next possession, he threw an interception for all his biggest supporters that bounced right off the numbers of his rookie TE. On their next possession, Dak threw a pick for all of his haters that bounced off nobody and went right into the hand of Kevin Byard (again). No matter how you slice up the blame, three consecutive turnovers to close out the first half is just plain bad.
Obviously, that was a point of emphasis in the locker room at the half and they cleaned that up the rest of the way to secure a 27-13 win and just barely get that cover. However, they were throwing the ball way too much in that first half. Maybe they were experimenting because they didn’t feel threatened by the Titans, but Tennessee plays way too physical of a style of football to be out there trying to do that.
What I found most surprising was, without Tony Pollard in the lineup, the Boys didn’t utilize Zeke as a receiving threat out of the backfield at all. So, it was in some of those moments when trying to throw the ball downfield got risky. When the run game isn’t working, go to the screen or the flat routes to the running backs to extend the run game. Even Malik Davis only had 2 targets, while CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz accounted for nearly 60% of the total targets. If there were ever a game to spread the ball around some, this was likely it and it didn’t really happen. If I were a Dallas fan, I would be concerned with some of the things I saw in that game.
(+205) AZ Cardinals 4-11 @ (-250) ATL Falcons 5-10 (-6, O/U 41)
This game could have had the makings of a fun one, and it still might be pretty fun as both teams are in futures mode, but it’s not one I will be watching in the morning. The spread is moving but 6 points seems like a big spread.
Pick: ATL | ATS: AZ +6 | O/U: Over 41
(+210) CHI Bears 3-12 @ (-260) DET Lions 7-8 (-6, O/U 52.5)
The last time these teams got together, Detroit pulled off a furious late comeback with the help of some egregious non-calls…but still. Chicago plays the kind of football that we just saw Carolina punish the Lions with and the Bears did it to them as well back in Week 10. That’s how Chicago had a 14-point lead to blow in the first place. The Lions have everything on the line this week and do tend to play better at home, so I’ll take it. But I’m not liking that spread.
Pick: DET | ATS: CHI +6 | O/U: Over 52.5
(+550) DEN Broncos 4-11 @ (-800) KC Chiefs 12-3 (-12.5, O/U 45)
Russell Wilson had his best game of the season last time out against the Chiefs, before leaving the game with a concussion that is. He sat out until he returned against the Rams last week and promptly sent the offense right back into the shitter. The bigger problem is that the defense went with them. Kansas City is still in the mix for the #1 seed and even if they don’t go crazy on offense, they showed that they can still win a low-scoring game with a big spread last week.
Pick: KC | ATS: KC -12.5 | O/U: Under 45
(+122) MIA Dolphins 8-7 @ (-145) NE Patriots 7-8 (-2.5, O/U 41)
If there were a way for both teams to lose this game, that would be ideal, so maybe I am rooting for a tie. However, I would prefer Miami to get the win. The problem is their 3-game skid earlier in the season without Tua has now become a 4-game skid with him, albeit to some good teams. New England has lost four of their last five too and to some good teams as well, so this one is tough to nail down.
Pick: NE | ATS: NE -2.5 | O/U: Under 41
(+205) IND Colts 4-10-1 @ (-250) NY Giants 8-6-1 (-5.5, O/U 39)
There is nowhere to go but up for the Colts, but I still have to favor a good and well-rounded Giants team that is good in close games. Yes, they lost a close one to a good Vikings team last week, but I think that says a lot. The Colts barely did anything against the Chargers and Nick Foles was horrible, so I have to trust that.
Pick: NYG | ATS: NYG -5.5 | O/U: Under 39
(+205) NO Saints 6-9 @ (-250) Eagles 13-2 (-5.5, O/U 41.5)
Is it Minshew Mania? Jalen Hurts is doubtful and trending towards out. New Orleans picked up a big win on the road in Cleveland last week, but the Eags are much better everywhere than the Browns. Minshew can hold down the fort enough to get a win, but the Saints are scrappy and have a good defense. It could be interesting as a loss doesn’t exactly hurt Philly. If the Saints sell out to win, they could make the game very uncomfortable.
Pick: PHI | ATS: NO +5.5 | O/U: Over 41.5
(+170) CAR Panthers 6-9 @ (-205) TB Buccaneers 7-8 (-4, O/U 40.5)
You wouldn’t think Tom Brady would be in a position to lose to the Carolina Panthers for the second time in a single season, but here we are. Tampa is still favored but the line has already been bet down a bit just on Saturday and I am glad I got Carolina at +4. This one is for the NFC South, or at least for the inside track to winning it. Carolina isn’t great but all season we’ve been waiting for the Bucs to eventually get into a rhythm and it just hasn’t happened. Not only that, but they have looked outright terrible at times too and that’s very uncommon for Tom Brady teams. Tampa should win if they can slow down the rushing attack but their general lack of scoring ability is problematic in close games.
Pick: TB | ATS: CAR +4 | O/U: Under 40.5
(+105) CLE Browns 6-9 @ (-125) WSH Commanders 7-7-1 (-2, O/U 41)
A month ago, Washington was one of the hottest teams in the league with 6 wins in 7 games and then they ran into that draw with the Giants heading into their bye week and they have been flat ever since. They lost the rematch to New York and then got hammered in San Francisco. While they are in the hunt in the NFC, Cleveland is eliminated from playoff contention and that might actually be a good thing for their play style as they have the freedom to fail now. Washington’s defense is better under pressure and against the run, so those should be their key to victory. Run the ball, play defense, and force the Browns to get it done through the air where they have struggled to score.
Pick: WSH | ATS: WSH -2 | O/U: Under 41
(-170) JAX Jaguars 7-8 @ (+143) HOU Texans 2-12-1 (+3, O/U 43)
So…the Jaguars have lost 9 straight games to the Texans. It’s just one of those weird matchups. So even though the Jags should 1005 win this game, they might lose. Plus, this game doesn’t matter as much for them as they have the play-in game for the AFC South crown next week vs the Titans. It’s probably in their best interest to win anyway because you don’t want to go in flat to the biggest game of the season next week. There’s no doubt that the Jags are the better team, and now that they have more confidence in who they are, I think they can right the ship and get the W
Pick: JAX | ATS: JAX -3 | O/U: Over 43
(-455) SF 49ers 11-4 @ (+345) LV Raiders (+9.5, O/U 42.5)
Derrick Carr is riding the pine as any injury would guarantee him $33 million next season, so the Raiders said, “you can spend the rest of the year on the sidelines.” I don’t know that it would have helped much against a really damn good 49ers team.
Pick: SF | ATS: SF -9.5 | O/U: Under 42.5
(-120) NY Jets 7-8 @ (+100) SEA Seahawks (+1.5, O/U 42.5)
It’s Geno Smith’s revenge game but, even if he plays fantastic, it’s the defense that I am worried about. They have one of the worst defenses in the league while the Jets have one of the best, and it’s particularly noticeable for the Hawks in their lack of run defense. Seattle gives up the 2nd most rushing yards per game and are tied for the 5th most per carry. That’s not ideal heading into a must-win game against a team that wants to establish the run. While I would like Seattle to get that final NFC Wild Card spot, I think the Jets have just played some very good teams lately and played most of them pretty tough and now they get a QB they actually want in there.
Pick: NYJ | ATS: NYJ -1.5 | O/U: Under 42.5
(+150) MIN Vikings 12-3 @ (-178) GB Packers 7-8 (-3, O/U 47.5)
Minnesota surprised a lot of people right out of the gates to start this season with a win over the Packers and they did it on the ground and through the air. Justin Jefferson feasted on a supposedly good Packer’s secondary and Dalvin Cook kept that clock moving. It’s a rivalry game and both teams have something to play for, and it’s interesting to see Minnesota as underdogs against a team with a losing record for the second time this season. Last time it was Detroit and the Vikes did, in fact, lose on the road in a division rivalry game. However, vanquishing the Packers en route to the NFC North crown has been a long time coming for Minny and they have the opportunity to really put the nail in the coffin this time.
Pick: MIN | ATS: MIN +3 | O/U: Over 47.5
(+228) LA Rams 5-10 @ (-285) LA Chargers 9-6 (-6.5, O/U 42)
With a playoff spot wrapped up and no shot at winning the division, it’s quite possible the Chargers go into hibernation to rest up for the playoffs. That is enough to scare me off the 6.5-point spread. However, Joey Bosa was activated off of injured reserve and you don’t want to go into the playoffs on a down note. Plus, it’s the LA rivalry where the Chargers have been the kid brother and they finally get a chance to stake a claim to the city. I’ll go with the Bolts.
Pick: LAC | ATS: LAR +6.5 | O/U: Over 42
(+118) PIT Steelers 7-8 @ (-140) BAL Ravens 10-5 (-2, O/U 35.5)
A rivalry among rivalries, the Steelers vs Ravens is one of the most physical games on the calendar. Baltimore is in the playoffs, but they hate Pittsburgh so much that I know they are in it to win it. The Steelers are on the outside looking in at the playoffs and they need to win to have a chance to get in and keep Mike Tomlin’s streak of the non-losing season alive. It’s going to be close, because it always is, and the Steelers just have to find a way to put points on the board earlier than they did last time and they’ll have a chance.
Pick: PIT | ATS: PIT +2 | O/U: Over 35.5
(-120) BUF Bills 12-3 @ (+100) CIN Bengals 11-4 (+1.5, O/U 49.5)
It’s the game of the season for me and probably some other Bills fans. I’ve been wanting this one last season because it’s the best litmus test out there against the team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Regardless of what happens, I don’t think this is the last time they meet this year. The Bengals are very dangerous and Ja’Marr Chase is something special, but let’s not forge that the Bills are dangerous too. Buffalo runs the ball better and has the better overall offense and defense, so it’s always Go Bills as usual!
Pick: BUF | ATS: BUF -1.5 | O/U: Over 49.5
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