(4-10)Atlanta Falcons at (13-1)Kansas City Chiefs (-11, 53)
Breakdown: After some big upsets last week, I’d like to pretend that I’m giving the Falcons a chance in this game but they actually blew their shot at one of those upsets so I’m not banking on them here. The Chiefs basically have the #1 seed and best record in football locked up, but I expect them to seal the deal at home against a poor Atlanta defense.
Pick: Chiefs
ATS: Chiefs -11
Over/Under: Under 53
(7-7)Chicago Bears at (1-13)Jacksonville Jaguars (+8, 47)
Breakdown: With the Cardinals’ loss to the Niners on Saturday, the door is open for the Bears to get the final Wild Card spot in the NFC. They couldn’t get a better draw than a Jacksonville team on a 13-game losing streak. There’s no real incentive for the Jags to win now that they have the #1 pick in the draft but Chicago better not mess around.
Pick: Bears
ATS: Bears -8
Over/Under: Under 47
(3-10-1)Cincinnati Bengals at (4-10)Houston Texans (-7, 45)
Breakdown: It’s tough to tell whether the Bengals’ win over the Steelers was a sign of Cincy’s ascension or Pittsburgh’s demise, but they played hard either way. I know Houston hung tough with the Colts and are playing at home, but the 7-pt spread is begging for action. The Texans, even undermanned, are the more experienced squad. Both teams have poor defenses but the Texans do have DeShaun Watson.
Pick: Texans
ATS: Bengals +7
Over/Under: Over 45
(10-4)Cleveland Browns at (1-13)New York Jets (+7, 44)
Breakdown: The Browns get a nice draw even though the Jets are coming off their best performance with their win over the Rams. Cleveland has looked good lately with their two-headed monster at running back and it’ll be a tough test for New York’s 14th ranked rush defense. The Jets’ pass defense, however, is ranked 30th and Baker Mayfield is playing some of his best football right now. The Browns should have learned from some of these other upset games and prepared accordingly.
Pick: Browns
ATS: Browns -7
Over/Under: Over 44
(10-4)Indianapolis Colts at (11-3)Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5, 43)
Breakdown: It’s difficult to know what to make of this game. It should be a huge game but the Colts are playing much better right now and they bring a very good defense to the table. Pittsburgh got embarrassed by Cincy and have now lost three in a row. Something’s gotta give here. Indy is capable of winning this game but you also have to figure the Steelers are going to get another win here at some point. The Steelers’ defense is still good but they’re missing a bunch of linebackers which means the Colts’ should have the middle of the field to attack. I just can’t see a Mike Tomlin team losing four straight.
Pick: Steelers
ATS: Steelers -1.5
Over/Under: Under 43
(5-9)New York Giants at (9-5)Baltimore Ravens (-10, 44)
Breakdown: The G-Men hung in there against Cleveland but without a healthy Daniel Jones, their offense will have a tough time against the Ravens’ defense. It does look like everyone on Baltimore is questionable and if they don’t take the Giants seriously, it could come back to bite them. The New York defense is good and has the kind of edge speed to contain Lamar Jackson. Both teams are still fighting for a playoff berth so it should be a hard fought game.
Pick: Ravens
ATS: Giants +10
Over/Under: Under 44
(4-10)Carolina Panthers at (6-8)Washington Football Team (-1, 41.5)
Breakdown: The Panthers haven’t been good in their first post-Ron Rivera season, but they aren’t as bad as the record suggests either. They usually hang tough until ther defense lets them down but the Washington defense is legit. If Alex Smith plays, it slides things more heavily in favor of Washington at home.
Pick: Washington
ATS: Washington -1
Over/Under: Under 41.5
(5-9)Denver Broncos at (5-9)Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 48.5)
Breakdown: This AFC West matchup should be a good one. Both teams are playing for the future and showcasing young quarterbacks. I know the Chargers remember that last minute road loss to the Broncos earlier in the season and are looking for revenge. Los Angeles played their best game of the season against the Raiders last week while the Broncos got pulverized by the Bills. Joey Bosa is out for LA but Bradley Chubb and Phillip Lindsay are out for DEN. The Chargers have the better defense and should get the home win.
Pick: Chargers
ATS: Chargers -3
Over/Under: Over 48.5
(9-5)Los Angeles Rams at (10-4)Seattle Seahawks (-1, 47.5)
Breakdown: The NFC West is on the line. The Rams embarrassing loss to the Jets signaled that their really not ready to be a next level team just yet, but they’ve already beaten Seattle once this season. The Hawks survived a pretty good Washington team and are were rewarded with the division lead and a chance to lock it up at home. I thought the Rams had a good defense until last week, but I’m sure they’ll be ready to play this time around. I’ve gotta trust Russell Wilson over Jared Goff and expect DK Metcalf to get some chances against Jalen Ramsey.
Pick: Seahawks
ATS: Seahawks -1
Over/Under: Over 47.5
(4-9-1)Philadelphia Eagles at (5-9)Dallas Cowboys (+3, 50)
Breakdown: Even in a loss to the Cardinals, the Eagles look like they have new life with Jalen Hurts under center. The Cowboys got a big rivalry win over the 49ers, but their defense has been really poor against the run this season. Philly is going to run the ball one way or another, so Dallas is going to have their hands full. The NFC East is still technically within reach for both teams too, so it’s not a throw away game. I’d have to give the edge to the Eags just because of the dynamic playmaking.
Pick: Eagles
ATS: Eagles -3
Over/Under: Under 50
(10-4)Tennessee Titans at (11-3)Green Bay Packers (-3, 54)
Breakdown: This is arguably the game of the week and it’s time to find out if my theory is true. From what I’ve seen, the AFC is far better than the NFC this season and, even with their record, Green Bay has looked particularly vulnerable. I know Christmas just passed but Derrick Henry is coming to town and bringing a sack full of rushing yards to Lambeau. The Packers have been a first half team all year and that’s not what you want in a matchup like this. However, Tennessee’s defense has been really poor all season too. Green Bay should be favored at home, but their defense has been spotty too and Henry takes his toll on teams.
Pick: Titans
ATS: Titans +3
Over/Under: Over 54
(11-3)Buffalo Bills at (6-8)New England Patriots (+7, 46)
Breakdown: The Bills get a chance to show off on Monday Night against a wounded Patriots team. Foxborough is always a tough place to win, but a stiff test on the road is much better for sharpening iron than a cushy home game. Buffalo wants to be great, so I think they’ll be ready for this opportunity. As usual, Belichick has basically the whole roster listed as questionable for this game which has been a tactic he’s used all season. Their one big injury was Stephon Gilmore’s quad tear, so he won’t be able to suit up against his old team. New England has nothing to play for for the first time in what seems like forever, so we could see a very different approach on Monday. I’m sure they don’t take kindly to handing over the torch in the AFC East, but it was taken by force. Plus, Buffalo should be getting John Brown back which only makes their passing game that much scarier.
Pick: Bills
ATS: Bills -7
Over/Under: Over 46
| Nick’s Picks | Nick ATS | Over/Under | Christen |
| Bucs | Bucs -10 | Over 54 PUSH | N/A |
| Cards | Niners +5 | Over 48.5 | Cards |
| Fins | Fins -3 | Under 48 | Fins |
| Chiefs | Chiefs -11 | Under 53 | Chiefs |
| Bears | Bears -8 | Under 47 | Bears |
| Texans | Bengals +7 | Over 45 | Texans |
| Steelers | Steelers -1.5 | Under 43 | Steelers |
| Ravens | Giants +10 | Under 44 | Ravens |
| Washington | Washington -1 | Under 41.5 | Panthers |
| Chargers | Chargers -4 | Over 48.5 | Chargers |
| Seahawks | Seahawks -1 | Over 47.5 | Seahawks |
| Eagles | Eagles -3 | Under 50 | Cowboys |
| Browns | Browns -7 | Over 44 | Browns |
| Titans | Titans +3 | Over 54 | Packers |
| Bills | Bills -7 | Over 46 | Bills |