So, I am off to an 0-1 start for Week 16. I can’t believe I talked myself into defending picking the Jets. I went into the game thinking they’d be underdogs and looking to steal a game early in the week. Then when I saw they were actually favored, I used that as a reason to justify my initial pick rather than looking at the things that led me away from picking them last week.
Zach Wilson was atrocious and much of the broadcast focused on that even when they tried to detour and pin it on the Jets’ defense. New York gave up only 19 points to one of the top offenses in the league but the offense couldn’t do anything other than the FG they got off the fumble forced by the defense to start the game. So, yeah, try to pin that on the defense.
At one point after the half, New York pulled Wilson for Chris Streveler and the offense started moving the ball immediately, so what does that tell you? The Jets were finally able to expose some holes in the Jags’ defense but could never really establish the kind of run game that set them up in a good position through the first half of the season.
The Jags are a solid team and I should have just taken them as underdogs but I was worried about the weather, plus I expected them to be favorites after beating Dallas last week. Oh well.
(-400) BUF Bills 11-3 @ (+310) CHI Bears 3-11 (+8, O/U 40.5)
The weather is going to be a real issue in this game and the Bears’ ability to run the ball will likely factor into how the game is paced with physicality. That said, the Bills should win. It’s just a matter of whether or not Buffalo is going to be focused with the key division wins in the rearview and the Bengals on the horizon.
Pick: Bills | ATS: Bears +8 | O/U: Over 40.5
(+135) NO Saints 5-9 @ (-160) CLE Browns 6-8 (-3, O/U 32)
The weather is going to be a factor for a bunch of games around the league on Saturday and playing outdoors in Cleveland won’t be fun. The conditions should favor the Browns as they will want to lean heavily on Nick Chubb and the ground game in the snow. Depending on how bad the conditions are, it could be a very low-scoring affair but I will still take the over.
Pick: Browns | ATS: CLE -3 | O/U: Over 32
(+143) HOU Texans 1-12-1 @ (-170) TEN Titans 7-7 (-3, O/U 35.5)
I know the Texans have been playing very competitive football lately, and Ryan Tannehill is probably done for the year after ankle surgery, but if the Titans can’t find a way to win here they are done. The good news is Malik Willis was able to play pretty well and compete against the Chiefs when he did start, so he just has to not lose this one.
Pick: Titans | ATS: TEN -3 | O/U: Over 35.5
(+360) SEA Seahawks 7-7 @ (-480) KC Chiefs 11-3 (-10, O/U 49.5)
The Hawks seemed to have used up all of their juice in the first half of the season, but this should still be a fun one. Kansas City’s pass defense has been having issues and Seattle can challenge them there. The problem is that the Hawks’ defense is going to be under siege in this one. If it does get into a shootout, I’ll side with the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs | ATS: SEA +10 | O/U: Over 49.5
(+175) NY Giants 8-5-1 @ (-210) MIN Vikings 11-3 (-4, O/U 48)
I don’t remember who I picked on the show, but after last week’s comeback effort it’s hard to ever count the Vikings out. They are 7-1 at home but there’s bound to be a bit of a letdown after last week. The Giants’ defense is pretty good and their mobility at the QB position and Saquon in the backfield gives them some things the Colts didn’t have when they needed it most. I don’t see the G-Men getting up 33-0 here, but I could see a close game. New York’s run defense is going to be an issue when playing the more dynamic offense. If you are looking for a steal, this could be a good spot because New York is coming out of a brutal NFC East.
Pick: Vikings | ATS: MIN -4 | O/U: Under 48
(-160) CIN Bengals 10-4 @ (+135) NE Patriots 7-7 (+3, O/U 41.5)
After the end of last week’s game in Vegas, the Patriots are bleeding out and the Bengals are a team that will test them everywhere. We also saw that even when the Bengals are flat for a half, they adjust better than anybody. The weather is most likely going to suck but that shouldn’t be the biggest issue.
Pick: Bengals | ATS: CIN -3 | O/U: Under 41.5
(-135) DET Lions 7-7 @ (+115) CAR Panthers 5-9 (+2.5, O/U 43.5)
This is a way more interesting game than it was a couple of months ago. Detroit is one of the hottest teams in the league and, up until last week, it looked like Carolina was ready to make a run with Sam Darnold. Then they lost at home to a Steelers team with an anemic offense. The Panthers can win if they play right, but the Lions are playing with a lot of confidence.
Pick: Lions | ATS: DET -2.5 | O/U: Over 43.5
(+235) ATL Falcons 5-9 @ (-292) BAL Ravens 9-5 (-6.5, O/U 34.5)
Lamar Jackson is still out and Tyler Huntley is questionable, so it could be a tough spot for the Ravens but they have the superior defense and will be facing a rookie Qb in Desmond Ridder for Atlanta. Then you factor in a dome team going to play in the freezing cold and the Ravens should be able to get the W.
Pick: Ravens | ATS: ATL +6.5 | O/U: Under 34.5
(+250) WSH Commanders 7-6-1 @ (-320) SF 49ers 10-4 (-6.5, O/U 37.5)
Washington shit the bed last week, at home, coming out of their bye week against the Giants and their reward is playing the best defense in the NFL on the road in San Francisco. Good luck.
Pick: 49ers | ATS: SF -6.5 | O/U: Over 37.5
(+175) PHI Eagles 13-1 @ (-210) DAL Cowboys 10-4 (-4.5, O/U 46.5)
The first time these teams met, there was no Dak for the Cowboys and now Jalen Hurts is out for the rematch. That’s a significant blow to the intrigue of this game but it’s still a heated rivalry. Philly would still have a 2 game lead in the division with a loss so the motivation may not be there, but it’s going to be Minshew Mania time in Dallas. Seeing how the Cowboys have struggled the last couple of weeks would suggest the Eagles have a good chance even without Hurts. I’m tempted.
Pick: Cowboys | ATS: DAL -4 | O/U: Under 46.5
(+115) LV Raiders 6-8 @ (-135) PIT Steelers 6-8 (-2.5, O/U 38.5)
Both the Steelers and the Raiders are in the same boat and fighting over the last life vest. The winner gets to “stay alive” in the playoff hunt for another week, but this one has to be about pride. Kenny Pickett is back and it’s going to be frigid outside, so we’ll see if the Raiders’ style translates. It looks like the moneyline moved a bit toward the Raiders but they got insanely lucky against the Patriots last week and I know Mike Tomlin’s team is going to be playing in memory of Franco Harris too.
Pick: Steelers | ATS: PIT -2.5 | O/U: Under 38.5
(+162) GB Packers 6-8 @ (-195) MIA Dolphins 8-6 (-4, O/U 50)
This one would be more interesting if the Packers were near the top of the food chain in the NFC, but it’s still an interesting one that has a lot riding on it. Green Bay is capable of exploiting the weaknesses in the Miami defense. The question is can they stop the Fins’ offense? The GB corners can play physically and maybe cause some timing issues as we saw with Miami vs the Chargers and 49ers. I may float Green Bay in a couple of spots where I need to pick up games but I’m trying not to let my desire to see Miami lose be the reason.
Pick: GB | ATS: GB +4 | O/U: Under 50
(-155) DEN Broncos 4-10 @ (+130) LA Rams 4-10 (+2.5, O/U 36.5)
Russell Wilson watch his team win from the sidelines as he sat out with a concussion, so, naturally, he’ll be back out there vs the Rams to get Denver back on the losing track. I kid…kinda…but the upside is Russ knows the Rams and won’t have to deal with Aaron Donald. Denver also has a much better defense and that should be enough to win a narrow game.
Pick: Broncos | ATS: DEN -2.5 | O/U: Under 36.5
(-385) TB Bucs 6-8 @ (+300) AZ Cardinals 4-10 (+7.5, O/U 40.5)
Because the NFC South is so tight, the Bucs have to play seriously and they are in a good spot to get a win with the Cards on their 3rd string QB. That’s a beefy spread for a team that doesn’t really score though.
Pick: Bucs | ATS: AZ +7.5 | O/U: Under 40.5
(-220) LA Chargers 8-6 @ (+180) IND Colts 4-9-1 (+4.5, O/U 45.5)
Week 16 comes to an end in Indianapolis as the Colts try to recover from the biggest bad beat in NFL history last week. Nick Foles is back under center for Indy because F it, they’ve got nothing to lose. Jonathan Taylor is on injured reserve and playoffs are dead in the water. The Chargers do have incentive though and they are going to be all in on trying to win.
Pick: Chargers | ATS: LAC -4 | O/U: Under 45.5
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