The (8-6) Colts almost blew a 20-0 lead in the 4th quarter against the (9-5) Patriots but managed to hang on in an important statement game, although that statement wasn’t quite as pronounced by the end.
New England had worked their way back into it and had cut the lead all the way to 20-17 before Jonathan Taylor made his MVP case with a 67-TD run to save the game. It was a huge play as the Pats over-committed to try and stop the run to conserve time. However, the Colts basically invited the comeback.
After picking off Mac Jones for a second time to end NE’s opening drive of the second half, the Colts went into bonehead mode again. They’ve blown a number of leads late in games this season and I totally get it. The interception gave Indy a 1st down at the NE 20-yard line. Give the ball to your best player and let him take you to the promised land, right? Wrong! These weirdos come out throwing three straight plays and win up in a 4th & 18 before kicking the FG to make it 20-0. They took almost no time off the clock playing with a three-score lead and that’s the kind of stuff that results in blown leads.
They stopped the Pats on downs near midfield and then start trying to feature Carson Wentz again, giving him two designed runs and to go with two incompletions. They missed the FG and the Pats finally scored on their next possession. Then, insanely, still featuring Wentz, he throws a pick. Honestly, he had gotten away with a couple of bullshit throws earlier in the game so it was only a matter of time. That led to a Patriots’ FG with about 9-minutes left in the game, which is a situation where Bill Belichick maybe may have wanted to go for it on 4th & Goal, but if the Colts wanted to beat themselves, why get in their way.
They did get the ball back after a Colts’ punt and scored that TD to make it 20-17, but there wasn’t much time left. Then JT happened and it was essentially over. However, it never should have been that close. Credit to the Pats for figuring some things out and making the Colts work but there’s a common denominator in all this mess and it’s Wentz. He went 5/12 for 57-yards with 1-TD and 1-INT yet, with the game and their season hanging in the balance, head coach Frank Reich decides it’s a good time to start featuring him and look what happened.
Overall, Wentz has played mostly well this season but their losses all have his fingerprints all over them. Putting the ball in his hands when they are dominating on the ground doesn’t make much sense, especially when he wasn’t exactly playing well in this game. As I mentioned, he should have picked a couple of times earlier in the game on lazy throws and maybe that would have changed head coach Frank Reich’s approach. Regardless, they escaped with an important win and did the Bills a favor.
Sunday, Dec. 19th
(+450) Panthers at (-650) Bills (-13, o/u 44)
The spread has continued to balloon for this one which is both comforting and concerning. I see the Bills as a much better team and their second half against Tampa last week was the best they’ve played all season. From what I’ve seen, Carolina’s defense isn’t as good as some have said. Even if it is, the Bills’ defense is better across the board. And when it comes to offense, there’s no comparison. Winning a game by two scores in the NFL is hard to do, but I have to believe what I have seen so far.
Pick: Bills | ATS: Bills -13 | O/U: Over 44
(+340) Jets at (-440) Dolphins (-9.5, o/u 41)
The (3-10) Jets might try to play spoiler by attempting to break the (6-7) Dolphins 5-game win streak. Even with WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Phillip Lindsay on the Covid list for the Fins, they still have the personnel advantage here. Miami’s defense has pulled out their second-half-of-the-season magic again. The defense has turned it up, allowing 11-PPG during their win streak and only giving up more than 10-pts once. Losing Waddle for this game stings, but coming out of the bye week, they should be in good shape. Miami should win, but I can see the Jets keeping it close if they don’t turn it over too much.
Pick: Dolphins | ATS: Jets +9.5 | O/U: Under 41
(-600) Cowboys at (+425) Giants (+11.5, o/u 44.5)
The spread moved an extra point in the (9-4) Cowboys’ favor and, while I’m usually not in favor of monstrous spreads, this is a situation where they can cover against a wounded (4-9) Giants’ team. Dallas is 10-3 against the spread this season and with no Kadarius Toney or Daniel Jones for the Giants, it should be hard for them to keep pace like we saw last week vs the Chargers. Rivalry games can be tricky, but Dallas should handle business.
Pick: Cowboys | ATS: Cowboys -11.5 | O/U: Over 44.5
(+105) Titans at (-125) Steelers (-1.5, o/u 43)
With the Colts’ win over the Patriots, this game is of greater consequence to the (9-4) Titans. The No.1 seed in the AFC is up for grabs again and they do hold the tiebreaker over Indy but, if they lose vs Pittsburgh and miss a beat down the stretch, it’s still possible they could lose the division. The (6-6-1) Steelers are in desperation mode the rest of the way. However, that was the case last week when they sleep-walked into Minnesota and didn’t wake up until they were down 29-0. It does, however, say a lot that they were even able to make it a game at any point after that. The Titans get ex-Steeler Bud Dupree back from IR, but they are still without three other defensive starters, LG Rodger Saffold III, and A.J. Brown is still on IR. So, they are far from full strength and they aren’t playing a Jaguars team with an incompetent head coach this week. Pittsburgh is still without nose tackle Isaiah Buggs but they should get Joe Haden back. The biggest thing to keep an eye on is the TEN running game. The Steelers’ run defense gives up the most yards-per-carry and 2nd most yards-per-game. D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard aren’t Derrick Henry but they’ve had their moments. I went with PIT last week and got burned, but I like playing fire apparently.
Pick: Steelers | ATS: Steelers -1.5 | O/U: Over 43
(+190) Texans at (-230) Jaguars (-5, o/u 39.5)
A pair of 2-11 teams square off with the #1 draft pick sweepstakes still on the table. Jaguars’ former head coach Urban Meyer was unceremoniously relieved of duty after a tumultuous season. Rumors coming out of Jacksonville had been terrible all season and apparently, he just ghosted the team after practice one day and that was that. Honestly, it’s good for the Jags. Houston has moved to rookie QB Davis Mills as their starter because it’s the fate of Tyrod Taylor to serve as the predecessor. It looks like Texans have their own Covid issue that nobody seems to care about because I am looking at 12-players currently listed OUT on the depth chart but only one of them is listed with an injury designation. Guess that’s what happens when your game is meaningless. If it is Covid, then it remains to be seen who of those players can actually play come game time, but this is a good opportunity for the Jags to exorcise the ghost of Meyer and start fresh.
Pick: Jaguars | ATS: Jags -5 | O/U: Over 39.5
(-700) Cardinals at (+475) Lions (+13.5, o/u 47.5)
The (10-3) Cardinals should have learned a valuable lesson in their loss to the Rams. You can’t turn the ball over four times and expect to win. The (1-11-1) Lions may have learned that it’s possible to get to Kyler Murray and force him into mistakes. Ace WR DeAndre Hopkins is out for this one as is CB Robert Alford but Arizona is still the more complete team. That said, Detroit has fight in them and that goes a long way. Sure, they’ve been blown out here and there but they’ve also played in seven one-score games. The Lions are, however, still chewed up by injury. Zona needs to win more than the Lions need to make it a game.
Pick: Cards | ATS: Cards -13.5 | O/U: Under 47.5
(+320) Falcons at (-420) 49ers (-9, o/u 46.5)
Regardless of the outcome of this game, Arthur Smith deserves some credit for what he’s been able to do with the (6-7) Falcons. Losing Calvin Ridley after losing Julio Jones in free agency and still being in the NFC Wild Card hunt is impressive. Is it enough to beat the (7-6) Niners? Probably not, but maybe. The problem is Atlanta’s 5th worst point differential. San Francisco will make sure to run the ball with whoever is healthy and they have the better defense, although they have given up their fair share of points too. Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for the Falcons when they went to the Super Bowl so there’s a little extra backstory. Injuries on the SF defense to Dre Greenlaw (out), Maurice Hurst (out), and Azeez Al-Shaair (doubtful) could let Cordarrelle Patterson keep it interesting.
Pick: 49ers | ATS: Falcons +9 | O/U: Over 46.5
(+140) Bengals at (-160) Broncos (-3, o/u 44)
This is one of the more interesting matchups this week as both teams are 7-6 and sitting right in the middle of the AFC Wild Card picture. The Bengals have an outside chance to win their division but they’re a long way from their 5-2 start. Cincy is giving up 27.5-PPG since then and oddly enough scoring 27.5-PPG. The Broncos are 4-6 since starting 3-0 and, over their last six games, they are giving up 18.3-PPG and scoring 22.5-PPG. Both teams have some good wins and rough losses mixed in so there’s no straight line answer here. Cincy has the 4th best rush defense in YPG and both Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams are questionable with Mike Boone out, sitting at 3rd on the depth chart. If the Bengals can force Denver to win through the air, it’ll help. Linebackers Kenny Young and DE Dre’Mont Jones are both doubtful on the Broncos’ defense with DE Shelby Harris and SS Kareen Jackson questionable. The Bengals are without CB Chidobe Awuzie, LB Logan Wilson, and RT Isaiah Prince. Denver is a tough place to play and I usually apply that logic in close games, but some teams are sort of built to play there and I think the Bengals are one of those.
Pick: Bengals | ATS: Bengals +3 | O/U: Over 44
(-320) Packers at (+250) Ravens (-7, o/u 43.5)
The line has moved 2.5-pts in the Packers’ favor since I first saw it. It looks like (10-3) Green Bay will be without LT David Bakhtiari, RT Billy Turner, and NT Kenny Clark but the (8-5) Ravens have it worse. They have WR Sammy Watkins, LG Ben Powers, SS Chuck Clark, and CB Chris Westry out, DE Calais Campbell doubtful. More importantly, QB Lamar Jackson didn’t practice and is questionable alone with starters WR Marquise Brown, FR Patrick Ricard, LT Alejandro Villanueva, and RT Patrick Mekari. They weren’t looking good even before the Jackson injury last week, so it’s a good thing I was going to pick the Packers even if both teams were at full strength.
Pick: Packers | ATS: Packers -7 | O/U: Over 43.5
(+425) Saints at (-600) Buccaneers (-11, o/u 45.5)
Tom Brady is 0-3 in the regular season against the Saints since he took over at QB for the Buccaneers, but this is a favorable situation to rectify that. New Orleans finally got Alvin Kamara back last week and snapped the 5-game losing streak that came with his absence. Sean Payton clearly knows how to deal with the Bucs, but it’s an uphill battle this time playing in Tampa against a team that’s finding their stride. The NO defense continues to be one of the better units in the league and ranks above the Bucs both against the pass and the run. The bigger issue is the Saints’ offense capabilities with Taysom Hill and his mallet finger under center. Josh Allen showed what a mobile QB could do against the Bucs defense last week, so Hill could maneuver a bit but there’s a reason the Bucs are favored by 11-points. Payton is a good coach and this is a more important game to the Saints than it is to the Bucs, so I think they’ll keep it close.
Pick: Bucs | ATS: Saints +11 | O/U: Over 45.5
Monday, Dec. 20
(6-7) Raiders at (7-6) Browns (-3, 0/u 40.5)
Two teams in the hunt for the AFC Wild Card square off early Monday evening thanks to a Covid postponement. The (6-7) Raiders are pissed and rightfully so after Covid decimated the Browns roster (21 players) and nearly forced a forfeit. Naturally, the league caved and moved the game to Monday. So, you know the Raiders want to take out their frustrations. It’s nearly impossible to determine which of those Browns players can actually clear protocols by game time Monday, so I have to roll with the Raiders based on the available information.
Pick: Raiders | ATS: Raider +3 | O/U: Over 40.5
(-270) Vikings at (+220) Bears (+6, o/u 44.5)
This NFC North showdown was slated to be the only game on Monday, but things change. The (6-7) Vikings are still in the playoff hunt and coming off a big win (that they almost blew) so they need to win. They cut starting CB and prized free-agent acquisition Bashaud Breeland this week after he got into a verbal altercation with coaches and teammates. He wasn’t playing well anyway since he can’t get away with holding anymore, so maybe it’s for the best. The Vikings are mostly healthy but the (4–9) Bears are chewed up. Starters WR Allen Robinson, LT Jason Peters, RT Larry Borom, FS Eddie Jackson, and CB Artie Burns are all out. They do get Akiem Hicks back to anchor the D-line, but they have a number of other issues at the second level of depth. It’s a must-win for the Vikes and a winnable game, so they gotta get it done.
Pick: Vikings | ATS: Bears +6 | O/U: Under 44.5
Tuesday, Dec. 21st
(+235) Seahawks at (-290) Rams (-6.5, o/u 45.5)
Covid once again gives us Tuesday football. The line moved a couple of extra points in the (9-4) Rams favor after getting moved back and I know the (5-8) Seahawks are pissed. It gave LA enough room to get OBJ and Darrell Henderson off the Covid list but they still have 18 players listed as out. Russell Wilson’s favorite target, Tyler Lockett, and RB Alex Collins are currently in the Covid protocol for Seattle but will have a chance to play. A lot is going to change because the Rams could be missing four defensive starters including CB Jalen Ramsey and LB Von Miller. It’s a rivalry that’s always close no matter the teams’ trajectories, so I’ll go with the Hawks.
Pick: Seahawks | ATS: Hawks +6.5 | O/U: Over 45.5
(+230) Washington at (+230) Eagles (-6, o/u 44.5)
The last game of the week is also brought to us by the Covid delay. The (6-7) Eags only have Quez Watkins listed as out while Washington is ravaged by the virus. Their #1 and #2 QBs are out along with two starters in the secondary, two starters on the O-line, and 11 others. I was already leaning towards Philly and the extra time actually gives their RBs a little extra time. If only half of Washington’s players clear the protocol they are still severely short-handed. It’s a mess.
Pick: Eagles | ATS: Washington +6 | O/U: Over 44.5
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