As suspected, the team I picked wound up losing as the Vikings held on to beat the Steelers 36-28. It turned out to be a wild one too as it was 29-0 Minnesota at one point before Pittsburgh finally woke up and stormed the gates with 20-unanswered points. This is the second time I’ve had Chris Boswell in fantasy with a great matchup and he missed a 49-yarder in the 1st quarter that could have changed the direction of the game. Once they got down by so much, FGs were out of the question so those two extra points were all I got.
Momentum is a hell of a thing. Once the Steelers had snatched it all to make it a 9-point game, the Vikings weren’t done looking for the knockout a caught PIT in a deep 1-on-1. Kirk Cousins made a great throw to K.J. Osborn who cashed in the 62-yard touchdown to stretch it back to a 16-pt game inside the game’s final 11-minutes. Pittsburgh’s punt on the ensuing possession hurt but they still managed to pick off Cousins for a second time and get in the end zone.
Down 8-points with just over 2-minutes left, the Steelers converted a key 4th down conversion but Chase Claypool decided to pose in celebration while 20-seconds ticked off the clock. They got all the way to the MIN 12-yard line with one play left and Big Ben hit Pat Freiermuth right in the hands in the end zone but a bit hit from MIN safety Harrison Smith knocked the ball out to secure the win. Vikings fans must have been clinched tight as it looked like they were about to blow the lead on the last play of the game again.
Ultimately the story of the game for MIN was Dalvin Cook slicing and dicing the Steelers’ non-existent run defense. Cook finished with 27-carries for 205-yards and 2-TDs and Minny still almost found a way to blow that game. Once the Steelers stopped letting Roethlisberger get marked on 3rd down, they gave themselves a chance but they just dug too deep of a hole. The Vikes improved to 5-7 and kept their playoff hopes alive for at least another week while the Steelers fall to 6-6-1 and may have expedited Big Ben’s retirement plans with that game.
If that game was any indication, we’re in for a wild week of games so let’s look at what’s on deck.
(+350) Raiders at (-450) Chiefs (-10, o/u 48)
This AFC West showdown gets the morning slot with the (8-4) Chiefs hosting the (6-6) Raiders. Las Vegas’ last-second loss to Washington last week really hurt their positioning. Kansas City just keeps winning ugly but they’re right where they want to be. The Raiders will be without game-changing tight end Darren Waller and their middle linebacker Denzel Perryman is doubtful. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are getting healthy at the right time. I don’t see much reason why the Raiders would win, but 10-pts is still a lot. However, even with the Chiefs struggling to score lately, the one team they thrashed recently was the Raiders, 41-14. It’s a rivalry game so you’d think it should be competitive to some extent, but I see a bad matchup for Vegas.
Pick: Chiefs | ATS: Chiefs -10 | O/U: Over 48
(-240) Saints at (+200) Jets (+5.5, o/u 43)
The (5-7) are long removed from their 5-2 start, having lost five in a row, but they get a good chance to right the ship and jump back into Wild Card contention against the (3-9) Jets. New Orleans gets RB Alvin Kamara back and it’s no coincidence that his absence has played a large role in their losing streak. Ryan Ramcyzk will be out on the O-line again for NO, and QB Taysom Hill is still going to play with his mallet finger, but they’re more healthy than they have been. Meanwhile, new York doesn’t have either of their top-2 RBs (both out with concussions) against a very strong Saints’ defensive front that gave a good Cowboys’ offense a lot of issues. I’m imagining a long day for Jets’ QB Zach Wilson.
Pick: Saints | ATS: Saints -5.5 | O/U: Under 43
(+350) Jaguars at (-450) Titans (-8.5, 43.5)
Tennessee battled off the injuries for as long as they could but, with AJ Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry all out at the same time, things eventually caught up to them and back-to-back losses saw them lose control of the AFC. Jacksonville had been competing with some solid teams but they’ve lost four in a row after their surprise win over the Bills. Maybe that’s not a surprise with the noise coming out of their locker room regarding head coach Urban Meyer. Given that the Titans have four key defensive starters out (five if you include Bud Dupree on IR), this is no lay-up even with Julio Jones coming back. Similar circumstances led to their loss to the Jets earlier in the season and you know the Jags want to get one here against their division rivals. Tennessee gouged New England on the ground last time out (despite the L) and that kind of run game should be enough to get the job done.
Pick: Titans | ATS: Jags +8.5 | O/U: Over 43.5
(+130) Ravens at (-150) Browns (-3, o/u 42.5)
Cleveland had their bye in Week 13 while after losing to the Ravens and they get a crack at redemption right away. Baltimore is coming off a loss to the Steelers on the last play of the game and they are going to want to take out their frustrations on a division rival they beat recently. The Ravens got some more bad news last week as CB Marlon Humphrey joined the crowded IR list in Baltimore and RT Patrik Mekari is going to miss this one too. The Browns come in with their own issues, missing TEs David Njoku and Harrison Bryant, WR Anthony Schwartz, and defensive starters MLB Anthony Walker and CB Greg Newsome II. Both teams are in the Top-5 in rushing offense but surprisingly, the Ravens have the #1 ranked rush defense. They also have the better passing attack and the best player on the field in Lamar Jackson. I know Cleveland has to win to extend their playoff hopes, but I haven’t liked what I have seen from them as of late and I’m a bit surprised to see them as favorites.
Pick: Ravens | ATS: Ravens +3 | O/U: Over 42.5
(+125) Falcons at (-145) Panthers (-2.5, o/u 41.5)
You know by now that I do not like picking the (5-7) Falcons. They have a bad habit of blowing 4th-quarter leads and that’s a hard thing to get behind. The (5-7) Panthers are in the same divisional boat as both teams cling to razor-thin playoff hopes. Carolina has two starting O-linemen out and one backup and that could be an issue while Atlanta has returned mostly to full health. Carolina is in a weird spot with Cam Newton after he got benched at the end of the Miami game. They brought him back to be a catalyst but after the one surprise win over the Cardinals, the pendulum has swung back the other direction. The Panthers already beat the Falcons once this season under similar personnel circumstances, but I think the Falcons can get them if they don’t turn the ball over. Picking Atlanta has never been safe for me, and it probably isn’t now either but Cam Newton is 6-9 in his career vs them so I’m going to roll the dice.
Pick: Falcons | ATS: Falcons +2.5 | O/U: Over 41.5
(-200) Cowboys at (+170) Washington (+4.5, o/u 48)
It’s a little crazy to think that it’s Week 14 and these teams haven’t squared off yet. I guess the scheduler had the foresight to think these late-season games would have some potentially big implications. The (8-4) Cowboys escaped New Orleans with a win in what shouldn’t have been a close game last Thursday and they’ve had time to get ready for one of the hottest teams in the league, (6-6) Washington. Winner of four straight, WFT gets five consecutive division games to close out the year and attempt to win the NFC East crown again. They’ve got the 3rd best run defense in the league and we saw how the Saints’ 5th ranked run D limited what the Cowboys want to do. Throw in Tony Pollard’s plantar fasciitis injury and we could see some struggles. Both teams are near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed but the Dallas defense is more opportunistic with turnovers and mostly plays from ahead. Part of WFT’s recent success has come from controlling the clock and they began their streak with a statement win over the Bucs. They only gave up 19-pts to the highest-scoring offense in the league, and while it may have looked like an anomaly then, it doesn’t look that way now.
Pick: Washington | ATS: Washington +4.5 | O/U: Under 48
(-420) Seahawks at (+320) Texans (+8.5, o/u 40.5)
The (4-8) Seahawks finally catch a bit of a break in the matchup department heading to Houston to face the (2-10) Texans. It’s a game Seattle should win, playing against the league’s worst run defense and getting Alex Collins back. Even with injuries to RT Brandon Shell and Jamal Adams being placed on IR, the Hawks are better pretty much everywhere…even while playing below their standards. Their win against SF last week may have been enough of a catalyst for them to make a run at closing out the season. Houston hasn’t had an easy go either playing teams with a combined 65-47 record over their last nine games. They’ve been competitive in some of those games but got shutout 31-0 but the Colts last week and Seattle will take a similar approach.
Pick: Seahawks | ATS: Seahawks -8.5 | O/U: Under 40.5
(+360) Lions at (-475) Broncos (-10, o/u 42)
I know the (1-10-1) Lions are feeling better about their season after getting their first victory last week, but there’s a reason it was their lone win. The (6-6) Broncos have put themselves in a better spot than I thought they’d be in. They’ve got some good wins and some not-so-good losses, but they’ve been competitive almost every week. At Mile High, they are going to run the ball and play defense and should be able to beat a seriously undermanned Detroit squad that’s been ravaged by Covid. Guess celebrating the W got around.
Pick: Broncos | ATS: Broncos -10 | O/U: Under 42
(+340) Giants at (-440) Chargers (-9.5, o/u 43)
Who exactly are the (7-5) Chargers? I have no idea. Every time I think they are good, they go out and take a bad loss and vice versa. I know who the (4-8) Giants are though and they have some major injury issues missing their starting QB Daniel Jones, WR Kadarius Toney, and CB Adoree’ Jackson…that’s just from this last week. This is a game the Bolts are supposed to win, so I’m nervous. The G-Men have little riding on this game but pride, so they could be dangerously overlooked. I still have to go with the hometown Chargers.
Pick: Chargers | ATS: Chargers -9.5 | O/U: Under 43
(-125) 49ers at (+105) Bengals (+1.5, o/u 48.5)
This is the closest and potentially most interesting game of the week as both teams are coming off of upset losses. The (6-6) Niners lost on the road to rival Seahawks who just have their number, but the (7-5) Bengals lost at home ugly, 41-22, to the Chargers. Missing starting linebackers in this league is a big problem and Cincy is missing two in Logan Wilson and Markus Bailey. Even without RB Elijah Mitchell, the Niners are still going to run the football and should get Deebo Samuel back. Losing CB Emmanuel Moseley to IR wasn’t good news heading into this one and LB Dre Greenlaw being out doesn’t help. I see why the odds are so close on this one as both teams can play to their opponent’s weakness. I like the kind of power SF can play with a little better.
Pick: 49ers | ATS: 49ers -1.5 | O/U: Over 48.5
(+150) Bills at (-175) Buccaneers (-3.5, o/u 54)
I love my (7-5) Bills and I believe they can win this game if they play right, but this is a bad matchup for them based on what I’ve seen in their other losses. Tampa gets after the QB and they’ve been running the ball well, two things that have been Buffalo’s kryptonite. Tom Brady is 32-3 in his career against the Bills. That’s a staggering number. I’m pretty sure he’s also 4-0 against Josh Allen. The game doesn’t mean a whole lot to the (9-3) Bucs, standings-wise, but it’s basically playoff time for Allen & Co. and they need to come out and make Tampa question if winning this one game is worth it. If they can do that and stay out of their own way, they’ll have a good chance.
Pick: Bucs | ATS: Bills +3.5 | O/U: Under 54
(+475) Bears at (-700) Packers (-12.5, o/u 43)
The Oldest Rivalry in the NFL gets center stage on Sunday Night Football, but it’s not nearly as interesting as it was the first time they met this season. The Bears have lost 5-of-6 but it looks like Justin Fields is coming in at QB for Andy Dalton once again. Akiem Hicks remains out for the (4-8) Bears while David Bakhtiari is still out for the (9-3) Packers. It’ll be the first trip to Lambeau for the Bears’ rookie QB and it’s not going to be welcoming. Green Bay should handle business as they prepare to make a push for the #1 seed in the NFC and home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Pick: Packers | ATS: Bears +12.5 | O/U: Over 43
(+115) Rams at (-135) Cardinals (-2.5, o/u 51.5)
Speaking of #1 seed in the NFC, the conference-leading (10-2) Cardinals look to stay on top with a win over their division rival, the (8-4) Rams. The last time they met in Los Angeles, the Cards dominated 37-20. This new look Rams team is still learning to play together took three straight L before beating the Jags. I don’t know if that win gets them ready for the Cards, but they’ll take what they can get. Unfortunately for LA, they placed RB Darrell Henderson on the Covid list so he’s out while AZ elevated Chase Edmonds to a game-time decision. After getting Kyler Murray and D-Hop back last week, the Cards put up 33-points in some bad conditions and look as dangerous as ever offensively. The Rams are going to need to dominate the ground attack and try to keep Zona’s offense off the field. That’s easier said than done which is why the Cards are favored but it’s a key game at this juncture.
Pick: Cards | ATS: Cards -2.5 | O/U: Over 51.5
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