I am probably going to pivot on how I do this, but for those who actually enjoy listening to the Pick Em Show, I’ll leave that below.
I thought I had broken the curse last week, but here we are at the start of Week 14 and the Raiders got me again. The only good news is that they got everyone because there is no way they should have lost to the Rams on Thursday night. However, for the second time in two straight games, a 16-3 lead in the 4th quarter just wasn’t enough.
It is one thing to lose to Tom Brady and a team that won the Super Bowl two years ago in that situation, it’s another to lose to a team on a six-game skid who switched to a QB who had been with the team for two days. I am happy for Baker Mayfield to step into a no-lose situation and play the way he did to lead the Rams’ comeback. He made some really good throws when it mattered and did it with only 2 days to learn what he could of the playbook.
Let’s not kid ourselves though. This is on the Raiders. Their playoff hopes essentially hung in the balance and after they looked amazing to start the game, they played absolutely lifeless in the 2nd half. They went 3 & out on back-to-back possession to start the half, and their best drive was 11 plays for a whopping 31 yards that resulted in a FG but, even at that point, it was 16-3. All they needed was a 1st down and the game would likely be over, but they went 3 & out again.
So many things went wrong so quickly for the Raiders, it was hard to keep track. It started with the Rams’ TD drive to cut the lead to 16-10. It was pretty clear that Vegas could not match up with the Rams’ receivers and were relying on Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones to get home, which they did a lot of, right up until the penultimate drive. Crosby gifted the Rams a 3rd down conversion with a neutral zone infraction and then on play after play, Rob Havenstein got away with egregious holding infractions vs Crosby that weren’t called, more or less handing the Rams the TD opportunity.
Then the Raiders could have gone for their own 4th down from their own 34-yard line but opted to punt at the two-minute warning. Los Angeles had no timeouts left, and 1st down ends the game. You have Josh Jacobs who leads the league in rushing and had another very strong night under his belt, but he didn’t pick up the prior 3rd & short and the Raiders balked. I understand punting the Rams down inside their own 2-yard line, but Vegas’ entire season was 1 yard away and the worst-case scenario would have likely left them with time to get into field goal range for Daniel Carlson. Anyway, having to go 98 yards for a TD seemed pretty insurmountable.
First of all, their defense scheme for that part of the game was shit. Remember the part where they couldn’t cover anyone, still true and the refs still weren’t going to call that hold on Crosby on that last drive either, but these jabronis were still playing press man coverage the whole way. That’s when the Raiders Raidered it up.
First, there was an interception by the Raiders that was waved off because Amik Robertson was holding on the play. On the following play, Crosby and Jones come away with the sack on a running clock at the Rams’ 13-yard line, but Jerry Tillery (who the broadcast team had mentioned as a big addition to their defense) was hit with an unsportsmanlike penalty for knocking the ball away after the play. That stopped the clock, and gave the Rams an automatic 1st down and a 15-yard bonus. Seriously, Jerry? On the next play, Mayfield threw a deep ball and Ben Skowronek made an absolutely incredible catch down to the Raiders’ 40.
A couple plays later and the Raiders are still playing press man and once they showed their hand on the safety help, Baker has been in the league long enough to understand the read and he placed a great ball to Van Jefferson for the game-winner. First it was Richard Sherman on the broadcast team exasperated that the Raiders’ defense could be that dumb in that situation, and when they got Baker on the microphone after the game he said, “Honestly, I’m surprised they were in press man there.”
So again, congrats to the Rams, Sean McVay, and Baker who were hanging tough when it counted and found a way to let the Raiders give the game away. There was a stretch earlier in the year when Vegas Coach Josh McDaniels was on the hot seat and his job was in jeopardy, but staying technically in playoff contention helped him. After what I saw on Thursday, now that they are basically eliminated from contention, he and the whole coaching staff need to get fired. That was shameful. I said it last year. and I’ll echo that sentiment now, they should have stuck with Rich Bissacia.
(+400) NY Jets 7-5 @ (-550) BUF Bills 9-3 (-10, O/U 43)
After blowing a double-digit lead, on the road, in the first matchup, the Bills welcome the Jets to Orchard Park in a pivotal late-season AFC showdown. I am pretty sure the Bills are the better team but the Jets’ defense is legit so points will be at a premium. If Buffalo can avoid turning the ball over like they did last time, they should be able to derail the Mike White hype train like they did last season. That spread is worrisome though.
Pick: BUF | ATS: NYJ +10 | O/U: Over 43
(+196) CLE Browns 5-7 @ (-240) CIN Bengals 8-4 (-5.5, O/U 46.5)
This seems like an easy game to pick on paper. Cleveland struggled with the worst team in the league last week and their offense looked terrible after the QB change, and the Bengals are coming off a huge win over the Chiefs. Then you factor in the fact that Joe Burrow is 0-4 against the Browns, including earlier this season and twice last year when Cincy went on to the Super Bowl. Whatever it is, Cleveland has some formula that works. On the podcast, I tried not to overthink it, but now I’m torn. I’ll take the Browns to cover here.
Pick: CIN | ATS: CLE +5.5 | O/U: Over 46.5
(+1150) HOU Texans 1-10-1 @ (-2400) DAL Cowboys 9-3 (17, O/U 44)
The whole “any given Sunday” saying exists for a reason, but it would take a colossal failure on the Cowboys’ part to lose this game.
Pick: DAL | ATS: DAL -17 | O/U: Over 44
(+105) MIN Vikings 10-2 @ (-125) DET Lions 5-7 (-2, O/U 51.5)
This is probably the most exciting matchup of a 10-2 team vs a 5-7 team you could come up with this season. The Lions are favored despite their losing record which says a lot and they almost had the Vikings beat when they played at the beginning of the season. This should be a fun one.
Pick: DET | ATS: DET -2 | O/U: Over 51.5
(+162) JAX Jaguars 4-8 @ (-195) TEN Titans 7-5 (-3.5, O/U 41)
The Titans should win this but the Jags don’t have much to play for except being a spoiler. If the Titans’ run defense can hold up, they should be okay.
Pick: TEN | ATS: JAX +3.5 | O/U: Under 41
(-345) PHI Eagles 11-1 @ (+270) NY Giants 7-4-1 (+7, O/U 45)
Another interesting division rivalry game where we are only getting round 1 this late into the season. The Eagles are a better version of the Giants everywhere, but the game is more valuable to NY than it is to Philly. So, the G-Men have to make the game physically untenable to compete. With Saquon already questionable, that’s asking quite a lot.
Pick: PHI | ATS: PHI -7 | O/U: Under 45
(+110) BAL Ravens 8-4 @ (-130) PIT Steelers 5-7 (-2, O/U 36.5)
It’s looking like Tyler Huntley time in Baltimore. He’s shown that he is a capable starter and he does some things very well. He even led the Ravens on the drive to win the game last week. However, he’ll be going up against T.J. Watt and a Steelers team that has played well as of late. It’s an AFC North rivalry game, it’s going to be physical, and it seems like PIT is in a better spot to win a game that they need more than the Ravens.
Pick: PIT | ATS: PIT -2 | O/U: Under 36.5
(-455) KC Chiefs 9-3 @ (+345) DEN Broncos 3-9 (+9, O/U 44)
If Denver wins this game, then my picks really are cursed. The Chiefs have t be fuming after their loss last week and punching down on a division rival is just what the doctor ordered.
Pick: KC | ATS: KC -9 | O/U: Under 44
(+158) TB Buccaneers 6-6 @ (-190) SF 49ers 8-4 (-3.5, O/U 37)
The Bucs are chewed up and with their win over the Saints last week, this is a game they don’t need. Mike Edwards and Antoine Winfield could be out and their run defense isn’t what it was. The Niners don’t need it, need it, but they’re in a closer division race so they could use the W. However, with the Jimmy G injury, the Bucs’ defense is going to have a chance to make life rough for the Niners’ rookie QB Brock Purdy. This is a tough game to pick. Elite defense vs struggling offense, Tom Brady vs rookie QB. I’m going to be wrong either way.
Pick: SF | ATS: SF -3.5 | O/U: Over 37
(+170) CAR Panthers 4-8 @ (-205) SEA Seahawks 7-5 (-3.5, O/U 44.5)
Kenneth Walker III’s injury status is going to be something to keep an eye on and he and Geno Smith got into it a bit on the Seahawks’ sideline last week. This is a game they should win but, with their porous run defense, Carolina should make a game of it.
Pick: SEA | ATS: CAR +3.5 | O/U: Over 44.5
(-170) MIA Dolphins 8-4 @ (+143) LA Chargers (+3, O/U 53.5)
This is a game that both teams need, but the Chargers need it more. Getting Mike Williams back should help, but I just don’t like what I have seen from them this year. They have battled valiantly through injury and they are at home, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. That goes both ways as the Fins’ defense is pretty bad too. With Derwin James doubtful for the Bolts, that’s a big problem against a team that just learned what it’s like to play against an elite defense.
Pick: MIA | ATS: MIA -3 | O/U: Over 53.5
(-125) NE Patriots 6-6 @ (+105) AZ Cardinals 4-8 (+1.5, O/U 43.5)
Are the Patriots good? Are they bad? It’s tough to tell honestly. I know the Cardinals aren’t very good but they do have a few key matchups that could be an issue for the Pats. I liked seeing the Pats fold to the Bills, but that is not a confidence booster moving forward for them.
Pick: AZ | ATS: AZ +1.5 | O/U: Over 43.5
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