(4-7)Detroit Lions vs. (5-6)Chicago Bears (-3, 44.5)
Breakdown: If you’ve been reading my posts, you’ll no my feelings about the Lions. I’ve already made the decision to never pick them to cover again, and they are 3-7-1 ATS this season. I wouldn’t say the Bears are much better than Detroit right now but the Lions are still pretty beat up and the Chicago defense needs a redemption game after getting walloped by the Packers.
Pick: Bears
ATS: Bears
Over/Under: Under 44.5
(2-8-1)Cincinnati Bengals vs. (7-4)Miami Dolphins (-11.5, 42)
Breakdown: Cincy showed they still has some fight left in them after losing Joe Burrow, giving the Giants a good game last week. The Dolphins are the better team and are fighting for their playoff lives right now. With Fitzmagic at the helm, Miami should have the firepower to win the matchup but 11.5-points is a huge spread for a late-season game.
Pick: Dolphins
ATS: Bengals
Over/Under: Under 42
(7-4)Indianapolis Colts vs. (4-7)Houston Texans (+3.5, 51.5)
Breakdown: This isn’t the huge late-season game it was meant to be when the schedule was put together, but it does have plenty of post season implications for both teams. Houston isn’t out of it yet. They were starting to play better, winning their last two, but the suspension of Will Fuller is a killer. David Johnson is back from IR for the Texans but the Colts get Deforest Buckner back too, so I don’t expect the Houston run game to explode like the Titans’ did last week. DeShaun Watson is a playmaker and he’s going to try his best to keep his team in the game but I think Houston is outgunned. I had picked Houston to cover before the Fuller announcement, but I can’t trust that now.
Pick: Colts
ATS: Colts
Over/Under: Under 51.5
(1-10)Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (5-6)Minnesota Vikings (-10, 52)
Breakdown: Jacksonville also refuses to quit and, even with their 3rd string QB under center, gave Cleveland a scare. The Vikes get Adam Thielen back for this one and Dalvin Cook is good to go. Plus this is a must win for Minny if they want to even think about playoffs. Still, 10-pts is a big spread and the Jags should be getting DJ Chark back for this one. The problem is that JAX is super thin on defense right now, so they are going to have to find a way to control the ball and that’s just not what they do. I had picked the Jaguars to cover earlier in the week, but that final injury report is looking mighty concerning.
Pick: Vikes
ATS: Jaguars
Over/Under: Under 52
(6-5)Las Vegas Raiders vs. (0-11)New York Jets (+9, 47)
Breakdown: Right when the Raiders were poised to secure Wild Card positioning, they got humiliated in Atlanta. With Sam Darnold back, the Jets looked awful in their loss to the Fins. They weren’t winning with Joe Flacco either, but they looked better. Raiders have to get the win but Josh Jacobs is out for this one. Despite their winless record, New York has been playing better as of late and covered in three of their last five.
Pick: Raiders
ATS: Jets
Over/Under: Over 47
(9-2)New Orleans Saints vs. (4-7)Atlanta Falcons (+2.5, 46)
Breakdown: The Saints, without Drew Brees, beat the Falcons pretty easily just a couple of weeks ago. However, the Falcons looked good last week and there is tape to study on the Taysom Hill-led offense. New Orleans won a really unfair game against a Broncos team that had no QB, but the defense has been playing well regardless. The 2.5-pt spread is a “come get me bet” for NO but they need to win to stay in 1st and they still have the majority of their top talent available. The Saints’ pass rush ate the Falcons O-line alive last meeting, sacking Matt Ryan something crazy like 9 times and, even with CB Janoris Jenkins out, it’ll be tough sledding for the ATL passing attack. Todd Gurley is questionable but NO completely shut him down last time too.
Pick: Saints
ATS: Saints
Over/Under: Over 46
(8-3)Cleveland Browns vs. (8-3)Tennessee Titans (-5.5, 54)
Breakdown: I would have never thought this would be a premier matchup in 2020, but it’s a welcome surprise. Cleveland has continued to succeed without Odell Beckham Jr. and their play style is pretty similar to Tennessee. I have to think the Titans are just a more refined version of the same style, with more experience at the QB position. The Titans’ defense hasn’t been lights out, but it’s been good enough and they are at home. CB Adoree Jackson and TE Jonnu Smith are still out for TEN but CLE is missing CB Denzel Ward, S Tedrick Thompson, and WRs KhaDarel Hodge and Taywan Taylor. If the Titans find their rhythm early, the Browns don’t play from behind too well. However, I’m feeling a close game.
Pick: Titans
ATS: Browns
Over/Under: Over 54
(4-7)New York Giants vs. (8-3)Seattle Seahawks (-10, 48.5)
Breakdown: The G-Men have won three in a row, but they’ll probably have to go into Seattle without starting QB Daniel Jones who’s dealing with a hamstring injury. The New York defense is still pretty good but point will be at a premium and they weren’t exactly blowing the doors off even with Jones. The Hawks’ defense has been getting better every weekas well but it looks like they’ll be without CB Tre Flowers. Seattle also has a couple pieces missing from their O-line, so they’ll have to treat the Giants’ defense with more respect than they did with Philly. These are the kind of games the Seahawks need to if they want that #1 seed. Even though 10-pts is an inviting Giants’ cover, it’s an uphill battle.
Pick: Seahawks
ATS: Seahawks
Over/Under: Under 48.5
(7-4)Los Angeles Rams vs. (6-5)Arizona Cardinals (+3, 48.5)
Breakdown: These two teams meet twice in the last five weeks of the season with quite a lot on the line. The Cardinals’ playoff hopes hang in the balance after going 1-3 over their last four games. I never had them at the top of the food chain and if not for a couple of last minute wins, they’d be 4-7 right now. The Rams looked like they might be NFC elite after their win over Tampa Bay but got beat by the sub .500 49ers again to fall out of 1st place in their division.Even with a top-5 defensive unit, Los Angeles clearly has edge containment trouble and that’s exactly where the Cards like to attack. However, if Aaron Donald has his way, the pocket will be collapsing on Kyler Murray all day and Jalen Ramsey will be lurking. It’s a little surprising to see Arizona as home underdogs, having already beaten Buffalo and Seattle in the desert, but that says a lot about their weaknesses on both sides of the ball. LA has the experience edge, but I’ll never count out Murray.
Pick: Rams
ATS: Rams
Over/Under: Over 48.5
(3-7-1)Philadelphia Eagles vs. (8-3)Green Bay Packers (-8.5, 46.5)
Breakdown: There’s no way around it, the Eagles suck. However, Doug Pederson is coaching for his job and the Packers have shown more vulnerability than most of the other top NFC squads. The GB defense isn’t what it was a year ago and Philly has shown the ability to score if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot. The Eags’ offensive line gets shredded every week and Carson Wentz is constantly under fire and making mistakes as a result. If they can at least mitigate some of that, the will have a chance. They’ve lost three in a row along with control of the NFC East, so I expect them to go out fighting. That doesn’t mean they are going to win in Lambeau and I need Davante Adams to have a big day.
Pick: Packers
ATS: Eagles
Over/Under: Over 46.5
(5-6)New England Patriots vs. (3-8)Los Angeles Chargers (pick’em, 47)
Breakdown: This is the first time I’ve seen a straight pick ‘em game this season. Bill Belichick is known for giving young QBs nightmares and Justin Herbert hasn’t seen the Patriots’ defense yet. The Chargers offense is far superior but Anthony Lynn’s team commits a ton of unforced errors and their situational awareness isn’t very good. Now that DE Joey Bosa is back for LA, their defense looks a lot better. Everyone on New England is questionable on their injury report, but I wouldn’t rely on that too much. LA should have Casey Hayward Jr. in the secondary which makes them tougher to deal with. At home, late in the season, I’m taking the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers
ATS: Chargers
Over/Under: Over 47
(4-7)Denver Broncos vs. (10-1)Kansas City Chiefs (-14, 50.5)
Breakdown: Drew Lock is back at QB for the Broncos which is good news after doing nothing on offense last week. The Chiefs won their showdown with the Bucs so this is something of a let down game, even as a division battle. There’s no reason Kansas City should lose this game but Denver is capable of putting up points too, so the 14-pt spread is a bit too big for me.
Pick: Chiefs
ATS: Broncos
Over/Under: Over 50.5
(4-7)Washington Football Team vs. (11-0)Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5, 44.5)
Breakdown: With this game moved to Monday, it gives the Steelers a chance to get their routine back in order. They are the best team in the league, but even they looked sloppy in the Wednesday game. Washington is playing their best and can be pesky, but winning in Pittsburgh is a tall order. I think they’ll keep it close in a loss.
Pick: Steelers
ATS: Washington
Over/Under: Over 44.5
(8-3)Buffalo Bills vs. (5-6)San Francisco 49ers (+1, 48)
Breakdown: This is a huge game for both teams on Monday Night Football as the Bills look to hang on to the AFC East lead and the Niners try to get back to .500 ad stay in Wild Card contention. Buffalo looked a little out of sync coming out of their bye week and WR John Brown’s absence will certainly impact their ability to throw against a top-10 SF defense. The Bills’ defense is playing better too and has much better sideline-to-sideline speed than the Rams, so if they can set the edge, limit the run game, and force QB Nick Mullens to win the game with his arm, Buffalo can get the win. This game is also in Arizona due to Covid restriction in Santa Clara, so there’s no real homefield advantage. Make the Bills can exorcise some of the demons left over from that Hopkins game-winner a few weeks ago.
Pick: Bills
ATS: Bills
Over/Under: Under 48
(3-8)Dallas Cowboys vs. (6-5)Baltimore Ravens (-7, 45)
Breakdown: This game got bumped from Thursday to Tuesday thanks to the Covid outbreak that delayed the Steelers’ game. Dallas fell apart against Washington and Baltimore is theoretically much better than that. There’s no official word on QB Lamar Jackson’s game designation yet, but RGIII is out with a thigh injury. If neither is available, it’ll be on Trace McSorely who didn’t look too bad against the Steelers in limited action. The Baltimore is a little banged up from the Wednesday game, but Dallas is still missing two offensive lineman. It’s a tough game to pick without new on Jackson, but the Ravens need this one badly.
Pick: Ravens
ATS: Ravens -7
Over/Under: Under 45
| Nick | Nick ATS | Over/Under | Christen | Vanger ATS | Toast ATS |
| Bears | Bears – 3 | Under 44.5 | Bears | Lions +3 | Lions +3 |
| Dolphins | Cincy +11.5 | Under 42 | Miami | Bengals +11.5 | Miami -11.5 |
| Colts | Colts -3.5 | Under 51.5 | Colts | Colts -3.5 | Houston +3.5 |
| Minny | Jags +10 | Under 52 | Minny | Jags +10 | VIkes -10 |
| Raiders | Jets +9 | Over 47 | Raiders | Jets +9 | Raiders -9 |
| Saints | Saints -2.5 | Over 46 | Saints | Saints -2.5 | Saints -2.5 |
| Titans | Browns -5.5 | Over 54 | Titans | Browns +5.5 | Titans -5.5 |
| Seahawks | Seahawks +10 | Under 48.5 | Seahawks | Seahawks -10 | Giants +10 |
| Rams | Rams -3 | Over 48.5 | Rams | Cards +3 | Rams -3 |
| Packers | Eagles +8.5 | Over 46.5 | Packers | Eagles +8.5 | Packers -8.5 |
| Chargers | Chargers | Over 47 | Chargers | Pats | Pats |
| Chiefs | Broncos +14 | Over 50.5 | Chiefs | Chiefs -14 | Chiefs -14 |
| Steelers | Washington +9.5 | Over 44.5 | Steelers | Wash +9.5 | Wash +9.5 |
| Bills | Bills -1 | Under 48 | Bills | Niners -1 | Bills -1 |
| Ravens | Ravens -7 | Under 45 | Ravens | Ravens -7 | Ravens -7 |