Why I took the under in this game, I have no idea, but Houston did their part for Texas football, beating the Lions 41-25 in Detroit. I had the Texans covering in this win, so that wasn’t much of a surprise but the Lions did have a 7-0 lead to start the game before J.J. Watt picked off Matthew Stafford and returned it for a touchdown. That was the start of a sloppy, four-turnover sequence in which Houston took control of the game. Even with the lead and control of the game, HOU didn’t take their foot off the accelerator, outscoring Detroit 15-8 in the 4th quarter on a pair of deep TD throws to Will Fuller. David Johnson’s injured reserve stint has allowed Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense to find it’s passing rhythm a little more and Watson tossed 4-touchdowns in the win over the Lions.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, had a catastrophic collapse in the 4th quarter of their game against the Washington Football Team. Dallas was hanging in, trailing 16-20 at the beginning of the 4th quarter, but decided to run a fake punt from their own 24-yard line. The decision was odd but Head Coach Mike McCarthy must’ve felt like his defense wasn’t going to be able to stop Washington but this fake punt was so poorly executed it was laughable. The design was solid, but it didn’t appear that the guys handling the ball knew what they were supposed to do on the play. It blew up for a loss of yards and a turnover on downs. Washington went on to score 21-unanswered-points from that moment and go on to win the game 41-16. I picked WASH to cover but I figured the Cowboys had more to offer. Ezekiel Elliot has fumbled his way out of elite running back status in the NFL and I can’t imagine Jerry Jones is happy with how things are going, so we’ll see how much slack he cuts McCarthy if they do end up missing playoffs.
(6-4)Arizona Cardinals vs. (4-6)New England Patriots (+2.5, 49.5)
Breakdown: Both of these teams are coming off losses last week, but the Cardinals have shown themselves to be the better team this season. That said, it’s always difficult to get a road win in Foxborough and the Patriots are 3-2 at home this season. Arizona does catch a break with the 1pm Eastern start time as it’ll be the warmest part of an otherwise chilly day in New England. The early game is also usually tough on the West coast teams heading East, and I could see the Cards coming out a little sluggish. With the two defenses being very close in all the pertinent categories, I have to roll with the better offense and that’s AZ by a wide margin. Had the spread been significant, I probably would have taken the Pats around +7.
Pick: Cardinals
ATS: Cards -2.5
Over/Under: Under 49.5
(4-7)Carolina Panthers vs. (4-6)Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 51)
Breakdown: The Panthers surprised and shutout the wounded Lions last week, while the Vikings got a surprise of their own as they got beat by the Cowboys. Teddy Bridgewater returns for Carolina but Christian McCaffrey remains sidelined. Seeing what Ronald Jones II did to the Panthers a couple week ago, I have to believe that Dalvin Cook is going to have a pretty dominant day. Even though these teams are only separated by a ½ game, Minny comes across as much more alive in the Wild Card hunt. They have a chance to get into 2nd place in their division if the Bears lose to the Packers, while Carolina already has losses to all three of their division opponents. The Vikes have the slightly better offense, but having the best player on the field goes a long way and the Panthers’ defense is a little better but far from lights out. It’s an important game for Minnesota and I think the loss to Dallas may help them to respect the game that’s in front of them.
Pick: Vikings
ATS: Vikings -3.5
Over/Under: Over 51
(7-3)Cleveland Browns vs. (1-9)Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5, 49)
Breakdown: If the Jaguars were fully healthy this might be a game, but they are far from full strength. Cleveland is down a couple of pieces on defense, including top cornerback Denzel Ward, but the Jags are without receivers DJ Chark Jr. and Chris Conley. The Browns should dominate the ground game and I’m not sure what Jacksonville can bring to the table to help them compete. James Robinson is a workhorse running back but the Browns’ defense has been pretty good against the run (8th best). JAX should look better than they did against the Steelers but this game lines up with Cleveland’s preferred approach.
Pick: Browns
ATS: Browns -6.5
Over/Under: Under 49
(3-7)Los Angeles Chargers vs. (7-3)Buffalo Bills (-5.5, 52.5)
Breakdown: Buffalo had their bye week to help them get over the heart break of the DeAndre Hopkins game-winner in Week 10, but they can’t come out of the break looking stale. The Chargers finally got a long awaited win, albeit barely, against the winless Jets. The Bolts can definitely put up points, but so can the Bills and Buffalo has the better defense. This is a tough road game for a rookie QB, heading to the East coast to play in a cold afternoon game in Orchard Park. Plus, Melvin Ingram and Casey Hayward are out which is going to make it a lot more difficult to contain the BUF offense. WR John Brown is out again and offensive lineman Cody Ford is going to miss the reast of the season for the Bills, but they are mostly healthy coming out of the bye. They need the win to stay in control of their playoff destiny but a lot of teams have looked sluggish coming out of the bye this season. I think the Bills win but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s closer than it should be.
Pick: Bills
ATS: Chargers +5.5
Over/Under: Over 52.5
(6-4)Miami Dolphins vs. (0-10)New York Jets (+7, 44)
Breakdown: The Dolphins learned the hardway about the altitude of Mile High Stadium as their momentum came to a screeching halt in Denver. Tua got injured during the process and is doubtful for this game too. Miami will also be without lead back Salvon Ahmed and starting guard Solomon Kindley. The Jets have played better as of late and they’ll be getting QB Sam Darnold back for this game but I’m still banking on the Fins’ defense to help get me into the fantasy playoffs. Miami needs a win to keep pace in the playoff picture and while losing to the Jets wouldn’t officially eliminate them, it would certainly be a bad look.
Pick: Dolphins
ATS: Dolphins -7
Over/Under: Under 44
(3-7)New York Giants vs. (2-7-1)Cincinnati Bengals (+6, 43)
Breakdown: With Joe Burrow lost for the year, the Bengals don’t look good. In fact, they didn’t score once he left the game against Washington and the Giants are bringing a pretty good defense into this game with the chance to get a share of 1st place in their division. Cincy is at home but I don’t think it’s going to matter much in this one. Despite their record, the G-Men have played well recently and their in a much better position to win right now.
Pick: Giants
ATS: Giants -6
Over/Under: Under 43
(7-3)Tennessee Titans vs. (7-3)Indianapolis Colts (-3, 51.5)
Breakdown: Both of these teams picked up wins against quality competition last week and the AFC South is on the line again as the Titans head to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Colts in a rematch from two weeks ago. Indy ran away with that game in the second half as Tennessee didn’t score a point after halftime. I’m inclined to think the Colts proved their point last time out but they are without a number of key pieces on both sides of the ball, including defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry, linebacker Bobby Okereke, and RB Jonathan Taylor. That’s a lot of key personnel absent from a good defensive group and you can bet the Titans are going to scheme some extra Derrick Henry into the gameplan. The Titans are mostly healthy but CB Adoree’ Jackson will be missed. I’m not sure why, but I’m feeling Tennessee in this game even though they let me down at home in the previous matchup.
Pick: Titans
ATS: Titans +3
Over/Under: Under 51.5
(6-4)Las Vegas Raiders vs. (3-7)Atlanta Falcons (+3, 54)
Breakdown: The Raiders lost a competitive game to the defending champion Chiefs while the Falcons failed to capitalize on a Drew Brees-less Saints team. Atlanta will also be without Todd Gurley II while Julio Jones is still banged up. Jones has been playing hurt for a long time but, in a season that’s mostly a lost cause, I don’t know how much they are going to push him. Vegas is the better team and has had one of the hardest schedules in football, so I expect them to take advantage of a winnable road game.
Pick: Raiders
ATS: Raiders -3
Over/Under: Over 54
(8-2)New Orleans Saints vs. (4-6)Denver Broncos (+6, 43.5)
Breakdown: Who will play QB for the Broncos? That’s the real question in this game with their whole QB group ruled out due to Covid exposure. Without a real QB under center, Denver is going to go through the motions and see what happens rather than forfeit. I imagine a lot of handoffs. Not going to waste time with this one. Saints shouldn’t be able to lose this game.
Pick: Saints
ATS: Saints -6
Over/Under: Under 43.5
(4-6)San Francisco 49ers vs. (7-3)Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 45)
Breakdown: In a tough luck season for the 49ers, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr, and Richard Sherman all came off of injured reserve this week. They’ll all be listed as questionable for this game. Let’s not forget this decimated SF squad already beat the Rams while dealing with a litany of injuries. Los Angeles has found their stride since then with huge wins over some of the NFC’s best. It’s tough to envision a 49ers win in this game, but if the Rams are still high off teh win over Tampa Bay, they could get surprised here. Otherwise, they should likely dominate.
Pick: Rams
ATS: Rams -6.5
Over/Under: Under 45
(9-1)Kansas City Chiefs vs. (7-4)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 56)
Breakdown: Tampa needs a win in the worst way afte losing on National TV again, to the Rams, last week. Kansas City looked good and avenged their only loss of the season with road a win over the Raiders. The Bucs’ vaunted defense looks pretty pedestrian against good team in the spotlight and all eyes are going to be on this game. The front seven is very good but the secondary is still getting there Andy Reid knows it. It’s going to be a nightmare covering all those Chiefs’ weapons and CB Jamel Dean is out for TB. You know Patrick Mahomes isn’t too keen on handing the torch back to Tom Brady for one final fairytale season, so this is a statement game for both teams. What I’ve seen so far this season suggests KC wins in a potentially lopsided game.
Pick: Chiefs
ATS: Chiefs -3.5
Over/Under: Over 56
(5-5)Chicago Bears vs. (7-3)Green Bay Packers (-8.5, 45)
Breakdown: Six weeks into the season, this Sunday Night Football matchup was looking pretty juicy. Mitch Trubisky makes his return to the Bears with Nick Foles both struggling and beat up. Their defense is good enough to keep them in most games and the Green Bay defense hasn’t been great, so I could see this being a close game. I just don’t think Chicago has the firepower to win and they are trending in the wrong direction. After a 5-1 start, they’ve lost four in a row and looked increasingly bad on offense each time out. The Packers haven’t responded well to adversity and they’re 2-2 since getting off to a 5-1 start also. However, even with a vulnerable defense, they should have the offensive edge and veteran wherewithal to get a win at home.
Pick: Packers
ATS: Bears +8.5
Over/Under: Under 45
(7-3)Seattle Seahawks vs. (3-6-1)Philadelphia Eagles (+5, 50)
Breakdown: I’m sure this Monday Night Football matchup was supposed to have bigger implications, or at least be a more high profile game, as a rematch of last year’s Wild Card game. However, 1st place in both the NFC East and West are potentially on the line in this matchup. The Eagles have blown their division lead by playing awful repeatedly and settling in as one of the league’s worst teams. This is a must-win game for Philly but they haven’t proven capable of winning any of those games this season. Seattle is basically back at full strength as the offense gets running back Chris Carson and center Ethan Pocic back. The defense has looked better in the last couple of weeks since placing Quinton Dunbar on injured reserve and they’ll get their #1 CB, Shaquille Griffin, back in the fold. Carson Wentz continues to make a case as the NFL’s worst starting QB, leading the league in interceptions and sacks with the 3rd highest INT %. He’s 2nd to last in completion %, and 3rd worst in QB rating. No matter how you slice it, he’s just plain bad this season. The offense is in total shambles so it’s not all his fault, but Philly has no alternatives. It’ll be a miracle if the Eags win this game and the 5-pt spread seems way too low, so Seattle just needs to handle business and give them a reason to fold.
Pick: Seahawks
ATS: Seahawks -5
Over/Under: Over 50
(10-0)Pittsburgh Steelers vs. (6-4)Baltimore Ravens (+4.5, 45)
Breakdown: Now slated for Tuesday, this was going to be a big game in the AFC North. If this game actually happens, the Covid list is far more dire for the Ravens who will be without Lamar Jackson and a mind-blowing 17 other players. Not having James Conner hurts the Steelers, but it’s far from devastating for an offense that’s pretty complete. Baltimore should forfeit but their playoff hopes hang in the balance, so they are going to try to put something on the field that resembles and NFL team and hope it’s good enough to beat the best team in the league. Good Luck.
Pick: Steelers
ATS: Steelers
Over/Under: Under 45
There were no guest picks this week from Vangerville, but here’s the standard picks sheet:
| Nick | Nick ATS | Nick O/U | Christen‘s Picks |
| Texans | Texans -3 | Texans | |
| Washington +3 | Over 46.5 | ||
| Cards | Cards -2.5 | Under 49.5 | Card |
| VIkes | Vikes | Over 51 | Vikings |
| Browns | Browns -6.5 | Under 49.5 | Jags |
| Bills | Chargers +5.5 | Over 52.5 | Bills |
| Fins | Fins -7 | Under 44 | Fins |
| Giants | Giants -6 | Under 43 | Bengals |
| Titans | Titans +3 | Under 51.5 | Titans |
| Raiders | Raiders -3 | Over 54 | Raiders |
| Saints | Saints -6 | Under 43.5 | Saints |
| Rams | Rams -6.5 | Under 45 | Rams |
| Chiefs | Chiefs -3.5 | Over 56 | Steelers |
| Packers | Bears +8.5 | Under 45 | Chiefs |
| Seahawks | Seahawks -5 | Over 50 | Packers |
| Steelers | Steelers -4.5 | Under 45 | Seahwaks |