I tried to steal an unlikely underdog pick on Thanksgiving with the Patriots and they almost got the job done, but it put me behind the ball for the rest of the week. I gave up a lot of ground on the one week I took from research and now I am playing catch-up. Most of the favorites held their ground but there were a couple of high-profile upsets that I was too afraid to gamble with.
Overall, I still went a respectable 10-6 on the week and tied with Christen but neither of us won the household as Ridley went 11-5 using her patented home team strategy. I broke even against the spread but was able to get a couple of games back vs the over/under going 9-7. Somehow, I am still tied for 1st in one league but I also fell to 3rd in the other. So, it’s going to be crunch time down the stretch and I can’t afford to be as risky.
| Nick W | Nick L | Nick T | ATS W | ATS L | ATS P | O/U W | O/U L | O/U P | Christen W | Christen L | Christen T | Rids W | Rids L | Rids T |
| 10 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous | Previous |
| 101 | 62 | 1 | 83 | 77 | 4 | 69 | 80 | 2 | 96 | 66 | 1 | 84 | 79 | 1 |
| Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall |
| 111 | 68 | 1 | 91 | 85 | 4 | 78 | 87 | 2 | 106 | 72 | 1 | 95 | 84 | 1 |
Since I already covered the Thanksgiving day games, let’s start with the curse that’s attached to me right now. First, it was just the Packers and Raiders that I couldn’t shake. I kept picking them to win and they would lose every time I did and vice versa. That remained true last week as I picked GB to win and Vegas to lose, but that also brought a third team into the mix: the woeful Denver Broncos.
If I had exclusively bet against them this season, I’d be 23-11 in those games. Anyhow, I had picked Denver to beat Vegas last week and, after that disappointment, I took them to beat the Panthers this week. So, following the curse math, the Broncos would lose 23-10 to Carolina who was on their 3rd starting QB in as many weeks. Once again, the offense was inept and this time it boiled over with Mike Purcell screaming at Wilson on the sidelines.
It’s easy to point the finger at Russ and justified considering the financial commitment the Broncos made to him, but their pass protection sucks. Wilson is getting sacked about 10% of the time which is 3rd-highest and he’s 2nd in total sacks behind Justin Fields. It also doesn’t help that their almost-always-consistent run game is gone. Denver has been a historically good franchise when it comes to running the ball, but this year they rank near the bottom in almost every rushing category while they are in the top half of the league in passing attempts. I could (and might) do a whole separate deep dive on them if I have the time but, for now, let’s just say it isn’t only because of Wilson.
Naturally, because of the curse, the Raiders found a way to win in Seattle thanks to a monstrous Josh Jacobs day that included the game-winning 82-yard TD run in overtime. Las Vegas was 1-5 on the road and Seattle has been better all season plus 3-1 at home so, of course, I went with Seattle. The Hawks were up by a TD late, but they couldn’t close it out and their poor run defense got picked on.
I think I broke the curse with the Packers as I picked against them, but they made it closer than I found comfortable. I almost pivoted to take GB as a desperation underdog, but I stuck with Philly and the Eagles held on to win 40-33 on Sunday night. Aaron Rodgers left the game with an injury and Jordan Love looked good in relief. Is it time to move on?
The other Pennsylvania team was the reason I got to 10 wins this week as the Steelers went into Indianapolis and beat the Colts 24-17 on Monday night. I also needed Jonathan Taylor to outscore Najee Harris by 6 points, which probably wouldn’t have happened if Harris was playing in the 2nd half. Pittsburgh looked good early then struggled as the Colts adjusted and even took the lead at one point, but they ran the ball very well even with Najee out.
San Francisco won ugly as they shut out the Saints 13-0. That’s probably a disappointing result for both sides but a win is a win and with the Seattle loss, the Niners have the inside track to win the NFC West.
Kansas City took care of business against an injury-riddled Rams team and covered a 14.5-point spread in a 26-10 victory. Bryce Perkins got his first start for the Rams and it went about how you’d expect. However, with Matthew Stafford going from pre-season elbow issues to in-season concussion issues, the door is more open than many would have thought.
(Photo Credit: Zenfs)
Elsewhere in the AFC West/NFC West matchups, the Chargers pulled a rabbit out of their collective helmets and beat the Cardinals 25-24 with a 2-point conversion. I almost switched to the Cards in this one because of Hopkins and Hollywood but my distrust of Kyler Murray kept me on course. Chargers’ Coach Brandon Staley makes a lot of weird calls but it does take nads to go for it on the 2-pt conversion as a 5-5 team. If they failed and fell to 5-6, that may have meant no playoffs, and they were in a similar situation last season and missed because of the overly aggressive nature of his playcalling. It may bite them in another game but I’ll never say Staley doesn’t have the stones.
Perhaps Staley was watching football in the morning because basically the same thing happened to close out the early slate as the Jags beat the Ravens 28-27 on a 2-pt conversion of their own. Baltimore was up 9 in the 4th quarter and then up by 7 with two minutes left, but the Jags engineered a TD drive without Travis Etienne Jr. who left the game. The Joneses, Marvin and Zay, combined for the TD and 2-pointer to win. I understand the Jags going for the win at home that way because their season is already shot.
I think I may have bucked the Falcons’ curse as well. I relied on them early in the year to pull some upsets but that backfired a few times in the last month, so I got off that train in time for the Commanders to beat them 19-13. Marcus Mariota also rode the bench in my fantasy league and threw the interception on what would have been the game-tying score at the end. Phew.
With Justin Fields down, it looked like Trevor Siemian was in line to start for Chicago but he too was injured, during warm-ups no less, but was able to start. On the other side, Mike White got the start for a benched Zach Wilson and, oh boy, let the hype train get started again. White threw for 315 yards and 3 TDs in the Jets’ 31-10 route of the Bears.
The Dolphins also routed the bottom-feeding Texans 30-15 and covered a massive spread in the process. The win kept the Fins atop the AFC East and 2nd place in the AFC overall as things start to get crowded.
After the Titans lost as the No. 1 seed at home in the playoffs to the Bengals last season, I thought they would be able to get the job done, especially with Ja’Maar Chase and Joe Mixon out of the lineup for Cincy. However, the Bengals hung in there, kept Joe Burrow upright, and didn’t let Derrick Henry run wild. He didn’t even score and Cincy found the go-ahead TD in the 4th quarter to win it 20-16. This was another game where I talked myself into taking the Titans even though I have mostly thought fairly little of them this season.
In the upset of the day, the Browns beat the Buccaneers in overtime 23-17 on a Nick Chubb TD. Tampa was was up 17-10 and Cleveland hadn’t scored since the first quarter but the Browns scored on a David Njoku TD to tie the game inside the final minute of regulation. Tampa got two chances to win it in overtime but it doesn’t look like the bye week fixed any of their offensive concerns as they punted both times and didn’t score. The Browns didn’t waste their second chance to win in OT.
Here are the updated Sheist Power Rankings after Week 12 action. It’s mostly the same on top but the bottom half saw some flux.
| 1. Eagles 10-1 (=) |
| 2. Chiefs 9-2 (=) |
| 3. Vikings 9-2 (=) |
| 4. Cowboys 8-3 (=) |
| 5. Dolphins 8-3 (=) |
| 6. Bills 8-3 (=) |
| 7. 49ers 7-4 (+4) |
| 8. Giants 7-4 (-1) |
| 9. Bengals 7-4 (+1) |
| 10. Ravens 7-4 (-1) |
| 11. Titans 7-4 (-3) |
| 12. Jets 7-4 (+2) |
| 13. Commanders 7-5 (+2) |
| 14. Seahawks 6-5 (-2) |
| 15. Patriots 6-5 (-2) |
| 16. Chargers 6-5 (=) |
| 17. Buccaneers 5-6 (=) |
| 18. Falcons 5-7 (=) |
| 19. Lions 4-7 (+1) |
| 20. Browns 4-7 (+4) |
| 21. Steelers 4-7 (+4) |
| 22. Colts 4-7-1 (-3) |
| 23. Jaguars 4-7 (+6) |
| 24. Raiders 4-7 (+6) |
| 25. Saints 4-8 (-4) |
| 26. Packers 4-8 (-4) |
| 27. Panthers 4-8 (+4) |
| 28. Cardinals 4-8 (-5) |
| 29. Broncos 3-8 (-2) |
| 30. Rams 3-8 (-4) |
| 31. Bears 3-9 (-3) |
| 32. Texans 1-9-1 (=) |
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