Even starting Week 11 off with a trifecta win couldn’t rescue a rough week of picks. Christen won the week on straight picks to tighten the season race, while I managed to edge out the ATS picks. Picking games during Vangerville on Thursdays certainly hasn’t helped me, but I gotta do better. Here’s the standings:
| Nick’s Picks | Nick ATS | O/U | Christen’s Picks | Vanger ATS | Toast ATS |
| 7-7 | 6-8 | 6-8 | 8-6 | 5-9 | 4-10 |
| Previous Total | Previous Total | Previous | Previous Total | Previous Total | Previous Total |
| 103-43-1 | 79-65-2 | 43-53-3 | 94-54-1 | 17-23-2 | 21-17-2 |
| Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall |
| 110-50-1 | 85-73-2 | 49-61-3 | 102-60-1 | 22-32-2 | 25-27-2 |
The Steelers mopped the floor with the Jaguars to keep their undefeated season intact and probably cost Jake Luton the starting QB in Jacksonville. He threw 4-INTs and looked terribly inaccurate throughout the game that was surprisingly rainy. The weather didn’t bother Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh sits comfortably atop the league and has all but clinched the AFC North.
Elsewhere in the division, Joe Burrow’s exciting and promising rookie season came to an end when he suffered a devastating knee injury in the 3rd quarter of the Bengals game vs Washington. Cincinnati was winning at the time of Burrow’s injury but WASH would score 13-unanswered points to get their third win and move one step closer to the top of the NFC East.
The Ravens have some serious questions to answer after blowing a 4th quarter lead at home to lose in overtime to the Titans. After a 5-1 start, they’ve lost three of their last four and fall to 3rd in the AFC North behind the Browns who took a W off the Eagles who continue to implode in spectacular fashion. Their plight has transitioned from frustrating to comical as they can’t seem to do anything right, even as players have returned from injury.
Andy Dalton returned for the Cowboys as they surprised the Vikings 31-28. Kirk Cousins had one of his best games as a Vikings, throwing for 314-yards and 3-touchdowns, and Dalvin Cook’s 150 all-purpose yards and a score were seemingly in line for a Minnesota W. However, the recently improved Vikes’ defense didn’t get the memo as they gave up the 4th quarter lead.
Denver and Houston also pulled upsets as underdogs at home, proving that football is still a matchup game. Miami came back down to earth as their five-game win streak was snapped in the altitude of Mile High Stadium. The Broncos are only 2-3 at home, but those losses came to experienced teams with veteran QBs. The Texans may not be very good, but showed they are a tough matchup for New England thanks to the dynamic playmaking of Deshaun Watson. Cam Newton has also started throwing the ball better but couldn’t get it done with the game on the line.
The Chargers kept the Jets’ winless season going, handing them their 10th straight loss, but it wasn’t as easy as advertised. Even with Joey Bosa back in the lineup, the Los Angeles defense continues to have issues. LA dominated the stats but Joe Flacco showed his experience and kept New York in the game, showing off some their young receiving talent.
I’m never picking the Lions to cover again. Detroit squandered a golden opportunity to improve their Wild-Card standing as they got shutout by the Panthers who were without Teddy Bridgewater and Christian McCaffrey. The Lions were were missing a number of their offensive weapons as well, but that’s a game Matthew Stafford has to find a way to win. The loss puts them in last in the NFC North and all but erases their playoff hopes. Perhaps the Staffords don’t have to worry about living in Michigan too much longer.
The Saints took control of the NFC once again with their win over the Falcons as the Packers blew a 14-pt, second half lead to the Colts and fumbled the game away in overtime. Taysom Hill’s debut at QB for New Orleans was a mixed bag, rushing for two TDs but throwing for none and losing a fumble on one of his runs. The continually improving Saints’ defense knew it was going to be on them to control the game and they did just that, stifling the Atlanta offense and sacking Matt Ryan eight times. Green Bay, on the other hand, showed once again they do not respond well to adversity. Holding a 28-14 lead at the half, they didn’t score in the second half until a game tying FG at the end of regulation. Indy continues to improve and although their defense doesn’t look elite againt good offenses, they make the right adjustments in the second half to give their offense a chance to win.
Elsewhere near the top of the NFC, the Rams handed the Buccaneers another primetime loss to close out Week 11 on Monday Night Football. That loss makes Tom Brady and the Bucs 1-3 in primetime this season, with the lone win coming in a game where they needed a ton of referee assistance to beat the Giants. I’ve gotten to watch Tampa Bay play quite a lot this season and, besides the national sports media anointing them as the uncrowned champs, the most annoying thing about them is how they have been officiated. The broadcast team spent a lot of airtime heaping praise on Jerome Boger’s officiating crew, and they certainly didn’t set the curve for the hand-holding the Bucs have gotten this season, but they sure did a piss poor job in this game. I don’t really want to dissect it because it takes more time on my part, but I’m a fan of the game and I hate seeing the referees playing such a large role in all the Bucs’ games I’ve watched. They’re a talented team with the best QB ever at the helm, opposing teams shouldn’t have to play against the officials also. So, let’s get into it.
Just a snapshot of the penalty picture gives you an idea. The Rams were penalized five times for 65-yards while the Bucs were penalized twice for seven-yards…seems a little strange. Three of LA’s penalties were for pass interference and two of those were on 3rd & long to give TB a new set of down, but only one was really legit. The first came as Jalen Ramsey got beaten up the field and grabbed Mike Evans on a route, which looks mostly normal on paper. However, the ball was massively underthrown by Brady (borderline uncatchable) so Ramsey’s contact didn’t affect Evans’ ability to make a play on the ball. That’s illegal contact/defensive holding which is a 5-yard penalty and automatic 1st down, not a spot foul, so that’s 15 bonus yards right there. Tampa scored a TD on that drive. The second PI was correctly enforced on Jordan Fuller who was trying to make a play on the ball but ran over Scotty Miller in the process. The 3rd came as Evans put an inside out move on Ramsey but he had outside position so Evans had to initiate contact and slapped him upside the head in the process. It was a crafty move by Evans that put the official in a spot to only see Ramsey’s arm on the outside. Evans got the position he wanted and made the catch, so that could have easily been a no call but Ramsey wasn’t wrong to complain about the shot to the head. The Bucs would score a TD to tie the game on the next play. Let’s fast fast forward a bit.
At the end of the 3rd quarter, with the Bucs trailing 24-17, it looked like the Rams strip-sacked Brady in his own endzone but the refs blew the play dead as an imcomplete pass immediately. In real-time, it looked like a fumble and close plays are supposed to be ruled as fumbles because turnovers get automatically reviewed. Sean McVay challenged and although the replay was borderline (I’ve seen that play ruled a fumble plenty), it wasn’t enough to overturn the call on the field. Had it been ruled a fumble in real-time, that call would have likely been upheld as well. The quick whistle prevented an LA touchdown on the recovery and allowed TB to punt, force a Rams punt, and get the ball back. On that ensuing possession, on 3rd & 10 from their own 34-yard line, Brady’s pass was tipped at the line but he caught the deflection and threw the ball to Mike Evans for an 8-yard gain. The flag came out for the illegal forward pass but McVay declined the penalty in order to make it 4th down, but the refs awarded the Bucs with the resulting yardage. How on earth an illegal forward pass, by rule, can result in a catch for positive yardage is headache inducing. By definition it’s “illegal” and should result in a loss of downs even if the penalty is declined. I watched Brady intentionally ground the ball on one of TB’s 4th quarter drives as well but there was no flag on the play.
I’m glad the Rams were able to get the job done but Jared Goff damn near threw the game away on a couple of occasions as the Bucs picked him off twice. Brady was pretty innaurate all game and his second INT ultimately sealed the deal. If there’s a ceiling to the joy I get from watching the Buccaneers lose, especially when they’re handed a stacked deck, I haven’t found it yet.
The Steelers have ruled the power rankings for over a month with the Chiefs right behind them, while the Jags and Jets have the two bottom spots locked up.
| 1. Steelers 10-0 (1=) |
| 2. Chiefs 9-1 (2=) |
| 3. Saints 8-2 (4⬆) |
| 5. Bills 7-3 (6⬆) |
| 5. Rams 7-3 (13⬆) |
| 6. Seahawks 7-3 (10⬆) |
| 7. Colts 7-3 (14⬆) |
| 8. Titans 7-3 (12⬆) |
| 9. Packers 7-3 (3⬇) |
| 10. Browns 7-3 (11⬆) |
| 11. Buccaneers 7-4 (5⬇) |
| 12. Raiders 6-4 (7⬇) |
| 13. Cardinals 6-4 (15⬆) |
| 14. Ravens 6-4 (9⬇) |
| 15. Dolphins 6-4 (8⬇) |
| 17. Bears 5-5 (17⬆) |
| 16. Vikings 4-6 (16⬆) |
| 18. 49ers 4-6 (18=) |
| 19. Patriots 4-6 (20⬆) |
| 20. Broncos 4-6 (22⬆) |
| 21. Panthers 4-7 (24⬆) |
| 22. Lions 4-6 (19⬇) |
| 23. Falcons 3-7 (21⬇) |
| 24. Giants 3-7 (25⬆) |
| 25. Eagles 3-6-1 (23⬇) |
| 26. Chargers 3-7 (26=) |
| 27. Texans 3-7 (28⬆) |
| 28. Washington 3-7 (29⬆) |
| 29. Cowboys 3-7 (30⬆) |
| 30. Bengals 2-7-1 (27⬇) |
| 31. Jaguars 1-9 (31=) |
| 32. Jets 0-10 (32=) |