It’s never fun to start the week off with an L, but I guess it’s time for me to start giving the Colts some credit as they picked up a massive division win on the road against the Titans, 34-17. At halftime, things were going as I expected. It had been a close game but Tennessee had dictated most of the game and Indy was just a step behind.
The Colts got an important field goal at the end of the first half to cut the lead to 4-points because they received the second half kickoff and could have potentially taken the lead and shifted the possession burden onto the Titans. However, they turned the ball over on downs (for the second time in the game) on their opening drive of the second half. Tennessee appeared to have gotten a huge break but the Indy defense tightened up and forced a punt from deep in TEN territory. New Titans’ punter Trevor Daniel pulled out the shank stick and kicked the ball out of bounds at the TEN 27 for a measly 17-yds.
Starting with incredible field position, the 4th down miss suddenly didn’t look so bad and Nyheim Hines scored a fairly quick touchdown to put the Colts on top 20-17. I believe in omens and, if the 4th-down-stop-turned-botch-punt wasn’t convincing enough, Indy forced a quick 3 & out on the Titans’ ensuing possession, blocked the punt, and returned it for a TD to go up 27-17. Before the 3rd quarter had even ended, the game had completely flipped and Tennessee was in freefall.
The Titans had one last effort to cut the lead to 10 at the start of the 4th quarter but, remember what I said about omens, Stephen Gostkowski missed the 44-yd try and that was it for the Titans who didn’t score in the second half. The Colts tacked on another TD for good measure, giving starter-turned-backup Jacoby Brissett the ball on a 2-yd QB sneak.
Indy plays a really good, solid brand of football. And their head coach is a former Buffalo Bills QB so there is reason for me to like them, but I just haven’t come around. I will put respect on their name as they proved that they are going to be problematic for any team that isn’t elite. The defense played really well and bottled up the Titans’ passing attack masterfully, while limiting the damage done by Derrick Henry. How far they can go remains to be seen, but the AFC South is now theirs to lose and they sure made the Titans look pedestrian in the second half.
(2-6)Washington Football Team vs. (3-5)Detroit Lions (-4, 46.5)
Breakdown: This game has more potential meaning for Washington than it does for Detroit, but they are also missing more pieces than the Lions. QB Kyle Allen is still out with the ankle injury and WR Dontrelle Inman will be missing as well. The Lions will be without Kenny Golladay and have a number of other questionables but appear to be the more healthy team. Neither team has a strong offense but Detroit ranks better across the board, but Washington surprisingly has the #1 ranked passing defense. Their 23rd ranked rush defense might have something to do with that but the Lions certainly throw the ball better than they run it, so it will be interesting to see the approach. This game should come down to effectiveness and that means Matthew Stafford and Co. should have the edge. Washington is near the bottom of the league offensively, has the 6th highest turnover rate, and they’re on the road. The smart money is with the Lions.
Pick: Lions
Vs Spread: Lions
Over/Under: Over 46.5
(2-7)Houston Texans vs. (5-3)Cleveland Browns (-3, 49)
Breakdown: Houston has been a conundrum all season, while the Browns have been overachieving. Both of the Texans wins have come against the Jaguars who have a good argument as the NFL’s worst team, but Houston’s schedule has been arduous. Cleveland has only lost to quality competition but the absence of Odell Beckham Jr. could weigh on them in what seems like a shootout kind of game. David Johnson has been moved to the IR for the Texans, so they’ll likely be focused on the passing game. Deshaun Watson has statistically played well this season but Houston often plays from behind and it’s not translating into wins. So, even though I’m tempted to side with him over Baker Mayfield, the Browns have been more consistent. Neither team has a stellar defense. The Texans are last against the run and, so that strongly favors Cleveland at home, but the Browns also have the 9th hughest turnover rate. I’m leaning towards the Browns but wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Texans get the win.
Pick: Browns
Vs Spread: Browns
Over/Under: Over 49
(1-7)Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (6-2)Green Bay Packers (-13.5, 50)
Breakdown: The outcome of this game isn’t as much in question as the spread. Jacksonville has lost seven in a row but rookie QB Jake Luton might permanently take Gardner Minshew’s job with a good showing. The Packers secondary is pretty banged up and their run defense has been very vulnerable, tied for 7th most in yards-per-carry against. That bodes well for DJ Chark and James Robsinson, who has been having an incredible season as the spark plug for the Jacksonville offense. Green Bay can’t afford to lose this game right now with several teams fighting for that top spot in the NFC, but 13.5-pts is a huge spread…as the Steelers found out against Dallas last week. Packers win but the Jags make it interesting.
Pick: Packers
Vs Spread: Jags
Over/Under: Over 50
(3-4-1)Philadelphia Eagles vs. (2-7)New York Giants (+3, 44.5)
Breakdown: Even though the Eagles can’t lose the division lead with a loss in this game, there is a lot on the line for both teams. Philly has the better offense and is finally starting to get healthy, with Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders returning, and Alshon Jeffrey making his 2020 debut. The Giants are mostly healthy too, with the exception of their running backs but Wayne Gallman Jr. has proven to be effective. The G-Men have the better defense and have been playing well as of late, despite their record. The Eags barely won their matchup three and a half weeks ago but they should be the better team. New York has both of their wins against Washington, but their last three losses are by a combined 6-pts. Everything suggests this game is going to be close but it’s an opportunity for Philly to seize full control of the division and I think they take it.
Pick: Eagles
Vs Spread: Eagles
Over/Under: Over 44.5
(6-3)Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (3-6)Carolina Panthers (+5.5, 50.5)
Breakdown: It was a whole lot of fun watching Tom Brady and the Buccaneers get blasted all night long on national television, but that’s probably not going to happen twice in a row. Even with that stomping, Tampa Bay still has a top-10 defense and Carolina will be without Christian McCaffrey once again. The Panthers will also be without starting tackle Russell Okung which won’t help against the Bucs’ pass rush. Carolina gave it their all against the Chiefs last week and came up just short in a make-or-break kind of game. They’ll now have to go 5-2 down the stretch to have a realistic shot at the wildcard. They aren’t out of it just yet but I have to imagine losing McCaffrey again is deflating, especially since he was initially injured in the Bucs game back in Week 2. It’s a division game and the Panthers have to try to keep it close, but I’m second guessing my pick that they’ll cover now that McCaffrey has been officially ruled out.
Pick: Bucs
Vs Spread: Panthers
Over/Under: Over 50.5
(3-5)Denver Broncos vs. (5-3)Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5, 51)
Breakdown: The Raiders are starting to put it together, going 3-1 in their last four. Denver has found their identity with Drew Lock but they haven’t been consistent enough to string together wins just yet. These teams are very similar in their defensive ranks but Las Vegas has the better offensive group on the ground and through the air. I could see this one being a shootout but I think that favors Vegas. Maybe 4.5-pts is a big spread for this game, but I picked the Raiders to take advantage of their momentum at home.
Pick: Raiders
Vs Spread: Raiders
Over/Under: Over 51
(7-2)Buffalo Bills vs. (5-3)Arizona Cardinals (-2, 56)
Breakdown: This is an interesting game. The Bills looked great in their win over the Seahawks while the Cardinals lost to the Dolphins and their rookie QB. Buffalo performed better against their common opponents so far and has the better yardage defense, but Arizona gives up fewer points per game. Additionally, the Bills placed a number of important secondary players on the Covid-IR list, including Josh Norman, Levi Wallace, and Dean Marlowe. A thin secondary isn’t good in a matchup like this and they’ll be without tight end Tyler Kroft as well. Kenyan Drake and Budda Baker will be game-time decisions for the Cards but they’ll be without defensive end Jordan Phillips and defensive tackle Leki Fotu. All those injuries considered, I feel like AZ gets the better end of it. Plus, they really need this game much more. The Bills offense is intact and they would look great at 8-2 going into their bye week, but they definitely don’t “need” to win this game as the Cards do. Before the Covid suspensions came out, I had Buffalo winning outright, but it’s going to be a lot harder stopping the AZ offense with those missing pieces. I don’t want to but I have to change it and pick against them again and just hope they win. Apologies to Bills Mafia.
Pick: Cards
Vs Spread: Cards
Over/Under: Over 56
(2-6)Los Angeles Chargers vs. (5-3)Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 48.5)
Breakdown: The tough luck Chargers don’t catch a break taking on a hot Miami team. The six losses don’t look good for Los Angeles but their average margin of defeat is only 4-pts. It’s tough to game plan for the Dolphins with Tua at the helm, but the defense is playing inspired. The Chargers are still without DE Joey Bosa and running back Justin Jackson, so it’ll be another Justin Herbert gunslinging kinda game. Problem is, they lost those games. In fact, Herbert’s only win is against the dismal Jags. The data says the Chargers will be in this game all the way, but Miami is definitely playing better right now.
Pick: Dolphins
Vs Spread: Dolphins
Over/Under: Over 48.5
(2-5-1)Cincinnati Bengals vs. (8-0)Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5, 47.5)
Breakdown: It’s tough to stay unbeaten in the NFL and the Steelers saw that up close last week, narrowly edging out the Cowboys. Cincy has been playing better as of late and Joe Burrow has been improving at a rapid pace. They are 2-3 since their tie with Philly and the offense is generally looking good and even put up 27 against a pretty good Colts’ defense. However, they got smashed by the Ravens and the Steelers have a better defense than either of those teams. The Bengals have six guys out including RB Joe Mixon, WR John Ross III, DT Geno Atkins, and CBs LeShaun Sims and Darius Phillips. I still expect them to compete but I have to go with the Steel Curtain and the veterans in Pittsburgh.
Pick: Steelers
Vs Spread: Steelers
Over/Under: Over 47.5
(6-2)Seattle Seahawks vs. (5-3)Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 55.5)
Breakdown: I know the Seahawks defense was savaged by the Bills and these games are always close, but I’m still surprised to see the Rams as the favorites in this game. No Chris Carson or Carlos Hyde will limit the approach for Seattle much like we saw last week against Buffalo, but I think 34-points would get the job done versus the Rams. Jared Goff has had a full two weeks to process that ass-kicking he received at the hand of the Dolphins and come up with a game plan for Seattle. You know Sean McVay watched the Buffalo game closely and will look to attack the Hawks in their secondary. Shaquill Griffin is still out and Quinton Dunbar is dealing with a hamstring injury from trying in vain to keep up with the Bills’ receivers, so the Seattle secondary will still be in trouble. However, if they can pressure Goff like they did Josh Allen, we’ve seen how Goff has responded this season. Plus, Goff and the Rams’ offensive success is predicated on their run game and Seattle still has a solid run defense. Go Hawks!
Pick: Seahawks
Vs Spread: Seahawks
Over/Under: Under 55.5
(4-5)San Francisco 49ers vs. (6-2)New Orleans Saints (-9, 49)
Breakdown: The Niners still aren’t technically out of it but they are not expected to be competitive in this game. Similar to the Green Bay game last week, the defense is good enough to keep it close for a while but the offense lacks the potency to keep pace down the stretch. New Orleans’ huge win over the Bucs doesn’t do much good if they lose to San Francisco and they know it. Look for the Saints to use this game to get Michael Thomas more involved and they’ll lean on Kamara if they need to. Saints all the way.
Pick: Saints
Vs Spread: Saints
Over/Under: Under 49
(6-2)Baltimore Ravens vs. (3-5)New England Patriots (+7, 43.5)
Breakdown: Ravens, good. Patriots, bad. Baltimore has only lost to the elite teams in the AFC and New England isn’t elite anymore. Lamar Jackson is a more lethal running QB than Cam Newton. The Pats somehow have the better passing attack, but their run defense is not good and that’s exactly where the Ravens are at the deadliest. I don’t expect the game to be competitive as BAL is going to go after Newton relentlessly. Both teams need the win but Ravens get it done.
Pick: Ravens
Vs Spread: Ravens
Over/Under: Over 43.5
(3-5)Minnesota Vikings vs. (5-4)Chicago Bears (+2.5, 44)
Breakdown: This is a huge division game in the NFC North for these two teams trending in opposite directions. The Vikings have ridden Dalvin Cook to back-to-back wins while the Bears have lost three in a row. Chicago’s defense is much better than Minny’s but Cook is on another level right now. The Bears held Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara in check on the ground but Kamara torched em on passing yards and Cook definitely qualifies as a dual-threat back. I can see Chicago giving a good effort at home and slowing down the Vikings running back enough to make it a game. The Bears are more beat up right now and missing RB David Montgomery from an offense that already isn’t high octane. It’s going to be chilly on Monday night in Chicago and I’m expecting a close game.
Pick: Vikings
Vs Spread: Bears
Over/Under: Over 44.5
| Nick | Nick ATS | Over/Under | Christen | Vanger ATS | Toast ATS |
| Lions | Lions -4 | Over 46.5 | Lions | Washington +4 | Washington +4 |
| Browns | Browns -3 | Over 49 | Browns | Texans +3 | Browns -3 |
| Green Bay | Jags +13.5 | Over 50 | Packers | Packers -13.5 | Packers -13.5 |
| Eags | Eags -3 | Over 44.5 | Eagles | Eags -3 | Giants +3 |
| Bucs | Panthers +5.5 | Over 50.5 | Bucs | Bucs -5.5 | Bucs -5.5 |
| Raiders | Broncos -4.5 | Over 51 | Raiders | Broncos -4.5 | Broncos -4.5 |
| Cards | Cards -2 | Over 56 | Cards | Cards -2 | Bills +2 |
| Dolphins | Dolphins -2.5 | Over 48.5 | Dolphins | Fins -2.5 | Chargers +2.5 |
| Steelers | Steelers -7.5 | Over 47.5 | Steelers | Bengals +7.5 | Bengals +7.5 |
| Seahawks | Seahawks +1.5 | Under 55.5 | Seahawks | Hawks +1.5 | Rams -1.5 |
| Saints | Saints -9 | Under 49 | Saints | Saints -9 | Saints -9 |
| Ravens | Ravens -7 | Over 43.5 | Ravens | Ravens -7 | Ravens -7 |
| Vikings | Bears +2.5 | Over 44.5 | Vikings | Bears +2.5 | Vikings -2.5 |