With the season opener between the Chiefs and the Texans in the books, the first full Sunday of the football season is upon us. Here’s a brief look at the matchups and my picks for week one.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (NE -7)
Breakdown: Brady might be gone but Cam Newton is in town and the Pats still have a solid defense and the best coach in the game, so they should still cover at home vs a young Dolphins squad.
Pick: Patriots
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (BAL -7.5)
Breakdown: Despite the Browns’ mediocrity, they played the Ravens tough last season and even beat them in Baltimore, smashed ‘em actually. Lamar Jackson and company returned the favor late in the season and are looking to send a message after a disappointing playoff exit last season.
Pick: Ravens
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Breakdown: The Bills are coming off their best season in a long time but they won’t be underdogs anymore. Six and a half points is a lot in a rivalry with serious ups and downs. Buffalo is rightly favored to win, but I wouldn’t mess with the spread on this one just in case.
Pick: Bills
Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers (+3)
Breakdown: Las Vegas gets to debut their new team on the road, but the Panthers are also debuting some new pieces. Christian McCaffrey is the most versatile back in the game and Teddy Bridgewater is a capable quarterback. I like Carolina to hold serve and cover on their home turf.
Pick: Panthers
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
Breakdown: This is a tough matchup to call. The Seahawks revamped their secondary looking to re-create the Legion of Boom but they’ve lost big pieces from their D-line over the last few years. Todd Gurley is looking for a new start with the Falcons and historically plays well against the Hawks, as does Julio Jones. A slightly deeper Seattle team edging it out sounds about right.
Pick: Seattle
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football (+5.5)
Breakdown: The Eagles didn’t look great last season and injuries constantly weigh them down but Washington was as bad as any team in the league last year. Washington always plays hard and, with a new coach and plenty of young talent, it’s tough to pin them down. Philly should win but may not cover the spread.
Pick: Eagles
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Breakdown: The Bears traded for Nick Foles who didn’t impress coming back from a broken collarbone late in the season, which says they aren’t all-in on QB Mitch Trubisky. Chicago still has a good defense and the return of Matthew Stafford to the Lions only helps so much. This is a game Detroit can win, but Chicago to cover makes sense.
Pick: Bears
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+8)
Breakdown: At 38, Philip Rivers isn’t a long term solution for the Colts but he brings a dearth of knowledge to a team that needs to learn how to score consistently. The Jags are admittedly in transition and their defense isn’t what it was a few years ago but they should be fun to watch. Indy is the better team but 8-points seems like a big spread. I’ll take JAX and Minshew Mania to cover.
Pick: Jaguars
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Breakdown: This is a huge division clash to start the season as both teams were in the playoffs last year. With Stefon Diggs gone, the Vikes have less of an offense and only scored 26-points total in two Ls to the Pack last year. Aaron Rodgers is still under center for GB and I expect them to get the “upset” and cover.
Pick: Packers
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
Breakdown: This is the least interesting game on the docket except for the debut of the #1 overall draft pick, Joe Burrow, for the Bengals. The Chargers are without a lot of firepower for this game and QB Tyrod Taylor has never been known to light up the scoreboard. It speaks volumes that the oddsmakers have Cincy as 3-point dogs at home but the Chargers should get it done.
Pick: Chargers
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Breakdown: Yes, the 49ers went to the Super Bowl and still appear to be one of the better teams in the league, but Arizona played ‘em tough both times last season and the Cards got better in 2020. Seven-points is a fairly conservative spread and the Niners should be able to cover but I expect a close game.
Pick: 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Breakdown: Drew Brees vs Tom Brady is the Super Bowl matchup that never was. We don’t really know what the Bucs will look like with Brady under center but it’s safe to assume their already potent offense will become more efficient. The lack of Mike Evans will take its toll this week but Tampa has a lot of weapons to choose from. NO has a trio of elite offensive weapons but all the pressure is on them now that Brady is in the division. Minnesota created the blueprint for stifling the Saints’ offense in the playoffs, so don’t be surprised to see the Bucs follow that game plan and cover the spread.
Pick: Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (+2)
Breakdown: It’s time to break-in the new SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, and the Rams don’t want to lose on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys completely collapsed down the stretch and missed the playoffs but did hammer the Rams late in the season and need to start this season on the right track. Dallas will have the best player on the field in Ezekiel Elliot but I think the Rams have the better defense. I’ll take Rams to cover.
Pick: Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (+6)
Breakdown: In the first of two Monday Night Football games, Ben Rothlisberger returns from elbow surgery and Pittsburgh played well without him last season. Daniel Jones enters his 2nd season for the Giants with one of the most dynamic players in the league in Saquon Barkley behind him. I believe the G-Men will be more competitive this season, but they’ll have to learn from games like this against a stingy Mike Tomlin defense. Steelers probably cover.
Pick: Steelers
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (+3)
Breakdown: Closing out the week, the Titans head to Denver as 3-point favorites. Denver officially kicks off the Drew Lock era at home but will be without Von Miller on defense. Tennessee has been notoriously slow starters but they just added Jadeveon Clowney and are the better team overall. They should cover the spread as Denver finds their bearings.
Pick: Titans
My girlfriend is pretty good at fantasy football, so I decided to include her picks. We’ll keep track each week and see how it goes. Here are Christen’s picks:
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots – Patriots
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens – Baltimore
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills – Bills
Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers – Panthers
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons – Seahawks
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington – Eagles
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions – Lions
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars – Jags
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings – Vikings
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals – Chargers
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers – 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints – Saints
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams – Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants – Steelers
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos – Broncos