Hey everybody! Welcome back for a new season of NFL Football.
Like many football fanatics, I often spend the offseason hyper-focused on all the big and little roster moves. Not so much for gambling or even fantasy football, but just to know if my team has a chance to do something meaningful. After a disappointing exit from the playoffs last season, I decided to disconnect and enjoy the offseason. To not pay too much attention to football.
A lot was going on in my life at the time as well, so it made disconnecting a little easier. I would get news alerts and was moderately aware, thanks to the wonders of social media, but there wasn’t much of an emphasis. I spent a lot of time during the offseason contemplating whether or not I even wanted to come back to do these writeups. I went through some serious burnout last season, trying to do previews of every game, every week, plus the recaps & power rankings, plus the Pick Em Show for the podcast, and that’s before the Buffalo Blues articles and the companion podcast.
It was too much. However, I love football and I want to continue to engage with it and my readers in a way that is worth both of our time. So, I am going to continue to do the Pick Em Show on “The Sheist Podcast” and I will continue to do these recaps because they allow me to keep my sense of humor at the forefront.
Thanks for sticking with me to this point, and since we are here, let’s do a quick recap of where we left off last season for anyone who is new here.
I finished the season with a regular season record of 174-94-2 (64.4%) on straight picks. That’s not bad. A tiny, 0.1% improvement from 2021 but still down a chunk from my 2020 season at 69.8%. I’m still barely treading water against the spread and I’m sinking on the over/under. I was at 49.8% ATS thanks to some pushes and I finished at 44.6% vs. the over/under, so my only goal is to get those numbers is to get above 50% this season. Definitely don’t take my advice on those.
My future wife, Christen, improved by a slightly less tiny margin of 0.15% with a record of 162-105-1. And, since our dog has been watching football with us, we (I) decided to let her start picking games and see how she does. Ridley finished the year at 147-122-2 for a 54.2% win percentage. It’s about as good as a coin toss. So, she serves as the control in our experiment.
| Nick W | Nick L | Nick T | ATS W | ATS L | ATS P | Christen W | Christen L | Christen T | Rids W | Rids L | Rids T |
| 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
It was a less-than-ideal start to the season for all three of us, as we each went 8-8, with three different sets of picks. I managed to go 9-7 ATS as a brief ray of sunshine, but I am so out of practice that I forgot to do the over/unders at all. At least it didn’t hurt my percentage.
So, without further adieu, let’s take a quick look at those games from Week 1 of the 2023-24 NFL season.
Week 1 ended with a spectacular, walk-off, punt-return touchdown in overtime to give the Jets a 23-16 win over the Bills on Monday Night Football. Yes, the Bills lost in devastating and frustrating fashion to the Jets on the anniversary of 9/11, so I’ve got that simmering, but the big news was the loss of Jets’ QB Aaron Rodgers. Multiple reports confirmed that the four-time league MVP did, in fact, tear his Achilles tendon, on just the fourth play from scrimmage) and will be done for the season.
As much as I am not a fan, it sucks to see him leave the field like that. He is one of the game’s great QBs and I wanted him to have the opportunity to either fail or succeed in this new situation, based on his own merit. Now he doesn’t get that chance, we as sports fans love, to prove the doubters wrong. I don’t want this to come across as crass, but that Achilles injury is difficult enough to recover from in your early 20s. At 39 years old, that may have been the final snap of Rodgers’ career.
Whether or not he plays again, his legacy is already secure. However, I hope he eventually returns to the field to end his career on his terms and not have it forced upon him. Plus, that would be one hell of a story.
Moving on to a pair of the league’s young quarterbacks. The Falcons, and their second-year QB Desmond Ritter, did what they were supposed to and won at home against rookie QB Bryce Young and the visiting Panthers. Carolina was hanging tight, tied through three quarters, but Atlanta’s defense and slight experience edge helped secure the win. While fans were buzzing about Bijan Robinson’s debut it was Falcons’ RB Tyler Allgeier who led ATL in carries (15), yards (75), and TDs (2). They should be a fun team to watch this year.
The Colts made it too close for comfort for much of the game as they rolled out their rookie QB Anthony Richardson for his first NFL start, but third-year man and former #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence led the Jags to 14 unanswered, 4th-quarter points in to emerge with a double-digit road win.
The Cleveland Browns probably had the surprise of the week, not just winning against Cincinnati but dominating them 24-3. Nick Chubb did his thing, racking up 106 yards on 18 touches, and Deshaun Watson was serviceable, but the story was the defense. I didn’t get to sit down with the whole game but what I saw was Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith getting pressure on Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon was mostly contained on the ground. It’s a big win for a Browns team looking to justify their investment at the QB position.
Is the Baker Mayfield era is really underway in Tampa? That remains to be seen but the Bucs surprised the Vikings in Minnesota, 20-17. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson still put up the numbers, but I picked Tampa to hang in there and cover thanks to their defense and the turnovers Cousins’ two lost fumbles and interception were enough to give Baker and the Bucs a room to get the win.
There were a lot of QB changes around the league this offseason and Derrick Carr christened his new home in New Orleans with a hard fought win. He didn’t necessarily wow for his new team, but you can’t spell “wow” without “W” and Carr got it done. Ryan Tannehill had a rough go of it tossing 3 INTs as he tried to get some of his newer offensive pieces in place. As we see so often, it’s not easy to win when you turn the ball over that much.
Arizona had a new QB under center as well with Joshua Dobbs, but they put up more of a fight than anticipated as they gave the Commanders everything they could handle. Washington was trailing through three quarters but rallied to win it with 10-points in the 4th quarter, 20-16. It was barely a cover, but it counts.
San Francisco got their QB back and Brock Burdy showed no ill effects of his off-season surgery as they brought the Kenny Pickett hype train to a emphatic stop with a dominat 30-7 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh. I don’t doubt that the Steelers improved over the offseason, and they will show that over the course of the year, but they were still a long way off from the Niners’ level and it showed in what was the easiest cover of the week.
The Ravens also got their QB back but struggled with Houston early. The Texans started their rookie QB C.J. Stroud and he played a reasonably soli game but, with both O-lines having protection issues, Baltimore eventually showed who the better team was and dominated the second half to win it 25-9.
The Bears ascension during the offseason may have been a tad premature as they got thoroughly handled by the Packers in Chicago, 38-20. Jordan Love was effecient with 3TDs as he officially took over the reigns for the Packers, but it was the Green Bay defense that made a statement with 4 sacks and 2 takeaways off Justin Fields. Aaron Jones balled out too, but kicked so much ass that he pulled his hamstring.
New coach. New season. Not much different for Denver as their anemic offense saw them drop their home opener 17-16 to the Raiders who didn’t really look great themselves. However, Vegas was rolling out their new QB Jimmy G and he had a pretty solid and efficient game against the pretty good defense group of the Broncos.
In a game that didn’t feature any new QBs, the defending NFC champion Eagles went into New England and picked up the win, but it was closer than it probably should have been at 25-20. At least they covered. Philly got up 25-14 in the 4th quarter but couldn’t coast as they fumbled and turned the ball over on downs to give the Pats a couple of extra chances.
A pair of QBs from the 2020 draft class who blossomed into talented NFL starters went head-to-head in a shootout in Los Angeles. Miami showed off their speed at SoFi Stadium as they held on to win 36-34 after a go-ahead score inside the final two minutes. Tua and Tyreek went berserk and (I think) both finished at the top of their respective postions for the week.
The Rams surprised everyone as they went into Seattle and blistered the Seahawks 30-13, after being down 13-6 at the half. Matthew Stafford looked like he was healthy and having fun out there as the absence of Cooper Kupp didn’t make a difference. I believe Stafford’s best season was the one after Megatron retired, and he showed flashes of that in this game. Plus, if the Rams finally have a run game again it’ll make them dangerous.
With a weird week of football before they even took the field, Dallas might have had the biggest statement performance of the week. They went into New York to play the Giants in the rain on Sunday Night Football, and left the Meadowlands with a 40-0 smashing. The Cowboys’ defense was ferocious all night and gave them a head start with 14 first-quarter points. The offense wasn’t super impressive but they didn’t have to be as they never let the G-Men get on track.
These rankings will swing a lot after Week 2, but Dallas deserves the top spot. The Jets may not be the 5th best team in the league, but that win got em in the top-5 for now.
| 1. Cowboys 1-0 |
| 2. 49ers 1-0 |
| 3. Browns 1-0 |
| 4. Eagles 1-0 |
| 5. Jets 1-0 |
| 6. Ravens 1-0 |
| 7. Jaguars 1-0 |
| 8. Dolphins 1-0 |
| 9. Lions 1-0 |
| 10. Buccaneers 1-0 |
| 11. Packers 1-0 |
| 12. Rams 1-0 |
| 13. Commanders 1-0 |
| 14. Saints 1-0 |
| 15. Falcons 1-0 |
| 16. Raiders 1-0 |
| 17. Bills 0-1 |
| 18. Chiefs 0-1 |
| 19. Vikings 0-1 |
| 20. Bengals 0-1 |
| 21. Chargers 0-1 |
| 22. Seahawks 0-1 |
| 23. Titans 0-1 |
| 24. Patriots 0-1 |
| 25. Broncos 0-1 |
| 26. Steelers 0-1 |
| 27. Giants 0-1 |
| 28. Panthers 0-1 |
| 29. Cardinals 0-1 |
| 30. Colts 0-1 |
| 31. Bears 0-1 |
| 32. Texans 0-1 |
Thanks for reading! I still believe word of mouth is the best way to help, so if you enjoy what I’m doing, please tell somebody. And if you have a comment, I’d love to hear it! Liking, subscribing, and sharing go a long way too. And, as usual, be well, stay safe, and Go Bills!