The 2021 regular season is in the rearview now and the only thing that matters is whether or not you made the tournament. Fourteen teams remain to vie for the Lombardi Trophy and 12 of those will be in action over Super Wild Card Weekend which now includes a Monday night primetime game as the cherry on top. There is a lot to get to so let’s dive right in.
Saturday, January 15th
(+190) Raiders at (-230) Bengals (-5.5, o/u 48.5)
The Story: The roads Derek Carr and Joe Burrow to get to their first career playoff starts have been very different, but someone will get their first playoff W when these teams meet in Cincinnati on Saturday evening. Carr had led the Raiders to a 12-3 record in 2016 but suffered a gnarly spiral fracture in that 15th game and the Raiders would make the playoffs but lose, without Carr, to the Texans in the Wild Card round. Burrow suffered a knee injury just last season that required surgery and there were rumors that he would miss the entirety of this season as a precaution. Joey B didn’t just play he had an MVP kind of season, leading the Bengals to the AFC North crown for the first time since 2015. Both of these guys have great comeback stories and it’s a bummer one of them has to lose, but that’s the nature of the business.
The Matchup: I wasn’t being hyperbolic when I said Burrow had an MVP caliber season, but I’ll save my case-making for a different entry. Anyhow, Burrow was noticeably limping at the end of the Bengals’ win over the Chiefs in Week 16 and he sat in a Week 17 game, along with several other starters. Las Vegas didn’t have that luxury as they were playing for their playoff lives in the last game of the season, all the way into overtime vs the Chargers, and they have played their best football at the end of the season also.
The week off appears to have done Cincy well as their injury report looks clean, but they do have some depth linebackers on the Covid-list and MLB Germaine Pratt listed as out but not on in the official injury report Friday. Jonathan Hankins is questionable at DT for the Raiders but they don’t appear to have any new injuries and getting TE Darren Waller back came just at the right time.
Cincy hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991 and the Raiders haven’t either since 2003, so one franchise is going to end its drought. When these teams met earlier in the season, the Bengals walked away with a 32-13 win. It was close until they hung 19-points in the 4th quarter to close it out and that explosiveness is their defining trait.
These teams are remarkably well-matched, especially on offense where they are separated by only 39-yards total. Their passing attacks are ranked 6th and 7th but you may be surprised to see that it’s Vegas with the slight edge because Cincy gives up so many sacks (51 to lead the NFL). Both teams’ run games are in the bottom third of the league, separated by 7.4-yards per game with a virtually identical mark in yards-per-carry. The primary difference is scoring, where the Bengals average 5-points-per-game more than the Raiders because Cincy is better at converting on 3rd down, 4th down, and in the red zone. The scoring differential goes both ways as the Bengals also surrender 3.7-ppg fewer than the Vegas.
Otherwise, the defenses are fairly well matched too. The Raiders have a slight edge in total-yards-allowed and yards-per-play and, while their pass defense gives up fewer yards, they also get scored on more frequently and have fewer takeaways. The Bengals rush defense is technically 5th overall but their YPC allowed actually ranks 16th, which is worse than Vegas’. All this suggests that the Cincy plays from in front more often while opponents are more content to attack the Raiders on the ground.
The Verdict: The Bengals should be in a solid position to win at home. They dominated the Raiders 32-13 in Vegas earlier in the season and their 14-point comeback win over the Chiefs spoke volumes about their character. That said, the Raiders have shown plenty of resilience this season as well, both on and off the field, and it’s impressive that they are in this position. I’m not counting them out, but I have to lean towards the Bengals in a close one.
Pick: Bengals | ATS: Raiders +5.5 | O/U: Over 48.5 | Final: CIN 30 – 27 LV
(+190) Patriots at (-230) Bills (-4.5, o/u 44)
The Story: New England reigned over the AFC East for two decades, but the Bills have taken the division crown now in back-to-back season. The rivalry re-ignited in spectacular fashion when the Bills stumbled mid-season and the Pats took over the division lead with a head-to-head win. Buffalo finally found their stride at the right time and avenged that loss to reclaim the division lead and close out the season on top. However, winning the division won’t be much of a consolation if Buffalo loses at home to the Patriots on Saturday night.
The Matchup: These teams split their meetings this season, so there are reasons for both fan bases to believe in their squads. I am a lifelong Bills fan of more than 30-years, so you know where my allegiance lies, but I will do my best to articulate my position without letting that get in the way.
When the teams first met in early December, I was worried because of how New England was playing at the time and the conditions at game time. The freezing, excessive winds benefitted the team with the dominant ground game, and that wound up being the deciding factor as the Pats kept it on the ground for 222-yards rushing. However, the Bills still had several chances inside the red zone that they didn’t capitalize on. So, despite the 14-10 loss, it was still a winnable game.
Fast forward a few weeks and I wasn’t worried when the Bills went into Foxborough with the division at stake. New England still ran the ball effectively and Damien Harris kept them in the fight with 3-TDs, but the conditions weren’t able to keep the Bills’ offense in check. Josh Allen and Isaiah McKenzie dominated the game and Buffalo was able to play with the lead essentially the whole way, and that was the plan in the first game. In forcing Mac Jones to beat them, the Bills defense was able to deliver the key turnovers in the 33-21 win.
Looking at both games, Buffalo outgained New England 658-529 in yardage and outscored them 43-35. That is more in line with the trends we saw all season. The Bills have the 5th ranked total offense (9th pass, 6th rush) while the Pats are 15th (14th pass, 8th rush). The teams score about the same with the BUF at 3rd with 28.4-ppg and NE at 6th with 27.2-ppg. The Bills are better on 3rd down and in the red zone while the Pats are better on 4th down. Both offenses are capable but the Bills have the advantage.
Defensively the Bills finished the regular season as the #1 total defense, #1 scoring defense, and #1 pass defense. New England isn’t far behind (#4 total, #2 in scoring, #2 in pass defense) and even held the top spot for a while. Neither team is great against the run but the Bills have the edge there too. They even both have 30 forced turnovers each, so they are very closely matched on the defensive side of the ball but there are some numbers that stand out. Buffalo has the lowest yards-per-play allowed (4.6) and the highest pressure percentage (30.8%) with only the 13th highest blitz rate (26%). That means Buffalo can pressure opposing QBs with fewer resources, meaning more coverage. It will be something to watch as Jones 2-INTs in the second game were costly.
The injury report for the Bills was clean while NE will be without LT Isaiah Wynn who is injured and CBs Jalen Mills and Shaun Wade who are on the Covid list at the wrong time. The Pats have 12 other guys listed as questionable but that’s just Belichick every week.
The Verdict: The Bills are the better team and they are playing their best football at the end of the season, winning four-straight heading into the playoffs, but they can’t be arrogant in their approach. New England may have lost three of their last four by an average 10-PPG but to disrespect your opponent is to disrespect yourself. If both teams play their games, Buffalo should win. Go Bills!
Pick: Bills | ATS: Bills -4.5 | O/U: Under 44 | Final: BUF 28 – 14 NE
Sunday, January 16th
(+310) Eagles at (-400) Buccaneers (-8.5, o/u 45.5)
The Story: Somehow, someway the Eagles have found their way into the playoffs. They were 2-5 at one point and didn’t look like they’d even get to .500, let alone lock up a playoff spot in Week 17, but here they are and they get a rematch with the defending champs for their efforts. Despite a slew of injuries to both the offense and defense and the saga of Antonio Brown finally boiling over, the Bucs finished the season tied for the best record in the league and are right where they want to be.
The Matchup: Tampa Bay won their regular-season meeting, 28-22, and were up 2-TDs in the 4th quarter at one point. The Bucs generally outplayed the Eags in that game but Jalen Hurts showed his dual-threat ability as he threw a TD pass and ran for two more. He was basically the whole offense and Philly will need more than just him this time around.
The Eagles are 7-4 since that game, so something clicked. Most of that was the run game and the defense. Philly has the best run-game in the league, averaging 159.7-YPG and 4.9-YPC. Much of that is Jalen Hurts but even without his yards, they would be 17th which is still better than the Bucs at 26th. The thing is, nobody really runs on Tampa. They have had a stout defensive front for years and even in a bit of an off-year, they are 3rd best against the run.
Part of the reason you don’t run on them is because of their prolific offense (#2 overall, #1 pass) and Tom Brady. He has a very strong case for league MVP, but I’ll make that case separately as well, and has found ways to keep scoring regardless of who is on the field with him. It’s hard to stay committed to the run when you’re behind by multiple scores and that’s exactly what happened to Philly the first time these teams met.
Despite the Eagles surrendering fewer passing yards than the Bucs, they have given up more TD passes through the air and given up a higher TD% vs the pass. Conversely, the Eagles give up fewer rushing YPC but also give up more TDs on the ground. The Eagles lead in total defense by a mere 45-yards, but Tampa gives up fewer points and generates more turnovers. The Bucs also blitz at the highest rate in the league, more than twice as much as Philly who has the second-lowest blitz rate.
I’d say the Bucs are better on both sides of the ball and they have edge rushers Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett back, with Lavonte David coming back off IR as a game-time decision. Richard Sherman went to IR but Tampa’s trio of Super Bowl corners are all back, although Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting are questionable. Running back Ronald Jones is still out but Leonard Fournette will be a game-time decision coming off IR as well and WR Cyril Grayson, who replaced Brown, is out. Mostly good news though for a defense that hasn’t played together much of the season. Philly is getting Miles Sanders back from IR three weeks after having surgery on his broken hand and it’s going to be an issue for a pass-catching back. Starting right guard Nate Herbig and DE end Josh Sweat are both questionable.
The Verdict: It would be good to see the Eagles pull an upset on the road but they are the second biggest underdogs of the week for a reason. Tampa has advantages mostly everywhere and they have Tom Brady. However, the Bills showed what a mobile QB can do to that Bucs’ defense and the Saints showed how to shut down their offense. Maybe Philly can bring some of that to the table and they have nothing to lose, so I think they can keep it close.
Pick: Bucs | ATS: Eags +8.5 | O/U: Over 45.5 | Final: TB 26 – 20 PHI
(+140) 49ers at (-160) Cowboys (-3, o/u 51)
The Story: It has been nearly 30 years since the 49ers and the Cowboys squared off in the playoffs, but there is usually a lot at stake when they do. The last four times these teams have met in the playoffs, the winner went on to win the Super Bowl. Most of those were conference championship games from decades ago, so take that with a grain of salt but it’s an interesting note. The Niners found their way here via a 17-point comeback in a must-win game, on the road, against the division rival Rams. Dallas locked up the NFC East quite a while ago and coasted into the playoffs but lost a key game in the seeding race but they still get to host this game as the #4 seed.
The Matchup: Dallas has finally become the team that Jerry Jones has been building towards for several seasons now. This is the best record for the cowboys since 2016 when Dak Prescott first burst onto the scene and it’s been five years of trying to return to that potential. Their offense leads the league in both total yards and points, which is very impressive considering some of the dynamic and dominant offensive units in today’s NFL. However, they did benefit greatly from beating up on a mostly weak division.
San Francisco has some playmakers of their own and one of my favorite players in the league, Deebo Samuel. They also have the #7 offense in total yards and they have a slightly higher yards-per-play average. Plus they did that playing in a division that fielded three playoff teams, each with 10 or more wins. Dallas may have the stars and the flash on offense, but the Niners are undeniably effective. The same thing could be said looking at the defensive side of the ball.
Dallas leads the league in turnover thanks to Defensive Player of the Year candidates like Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons, but it’s a high-risk/high-reward system that gives up a lot of big plays. Despite the highlight moments we’ve seen from them all season, the Cowboys defense ranks 19th overall (20th pass, 16th run). San Francisco, on the other hand, has the #3 overall defense (6th pass, 7th rush) and gives up fewer YPP. The point-per-game allowed are pretty close to even, but you have to work harder to get them against the 49ers.
Linebacker Keanu Neal is out for the Cowboys and he’s a big piece of their defense. Azeez Al-Shaair is questionable at linebacker for SF and so is his backup Marcell Harris. Their punter Mitch Wishnowsky is also questionable and that could be a factor in the playcalling.
I know Mike McCarthy won a Super Bowl with the Packers, but I still give the Niners the edge with Kyle Shanahan here. The Niners’ attack is designed to exploit the kind of attacking defense Dallas has, but DAL defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has seen plenty of Shanahan’s offense over the years. That matchup in particular will be interesting to keep an eye on.
The Verdict: I thought I was going to favor the Cowboys in this one, but I have convinced myself to take the 49ers. They have been battle-tested and faced adversity, down 17-0 with their season hanging in the balance and they found a way. When playing their best football, this San Francisco team was in the Super Bowl two years ago and they know the level they can play to. I’m not sure Dallas has matured into their position yet.
Pick: 49ers | ATS: 49ers +3 | O/U: Under 51 | Final: SF 27 – DAL 23
(+550) Steelers at (-800) Chiefs (-12.5, o/u 46)
The Story: Ben Roethlisberger’s magical last stand continues as the Steelers won in overtime in Week 18 against the Ravens to give themselves a chance and the Raiders did the rest. The only question is: how long can they keep this rolling? Kansas City rebounded from a 3-4 start to win seven-straight and wound up fighting for the #1 seed in the AFC again. Pittsburgh has nothing to lose and there’s a freedom that comes with that, but the Chiefs are where they are for a reason.
The Matchup: The glaring difference would have to be the offense. We saw that when the Chiefs smoked the Steelers 36-10 just a few weeks ago. Kansas City is Top-5 in scoring, total yards, and YPP while Pittsburgh doesn’t even crack the Top-20 in any of those categories. The Chiefs even have the better run game and that’s crazy considering Steelers’ rookie Najee Harris ran for 1,200-yards. That speaks volumes about the state of the PIT offense.
The Steelers used to hang their hats on defense and they still have some great players on that side of the ball but neither team has been great defensively. Cameron Heyward is a beast and T.J. Watt (who’s maybe DPOY) can be a game wrecker. However, both teams rank in the bottom-8 in total yards allowed, with the Chiefs giving up the second most YPP (PIT 19th). Pittsburgh’s pass defense has been solid (9th) thanks to their strong defensive front and solid secondary (when healthy) while KC ranks 27th. However, both units have given up passing TDs at a close-to-even rate and the total surrendered is comparable.
You would have never thought it to start the year, but the Chiefs have a superior run defense and that says a lot for a group that’s 21st against the run. That’s because the Steelers are dead last, giving up both the most YPG (146.1) and YPC (5.0) on the ground. It’s often been ugly and cost them a lot of games this season, but they don’t give up the most rushing TDs and they are right there with KCin that category and in scoring defense.
Both teams have had to reinvent themselves a bit this year as the Chiefs have had to adjust to the two-high safety looks and the Steelers have adapted a short-yardage, quick-release approach. Kansas City has adapted better and that shows in the 8-points more per game being scored.
The Verdict: I know Pittsburgh is playing with house money and a team with nothing to lose is a dangerous team, but the Chiefs didn’t get to where they are by losing these types of games. Big Ben does actually lead the league in 4th-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives this season (surprise!) but it’s asking a lot of him and the defense to do it again in Arrowhead. As much as I’d love to see KC get bounced in the first round, I’m not seeing many roads to victory for them.
Pick: Chiefs | ATS: Steelers +12.5 | O/U: Over 46 | Final: KC 28 – 20
Monday, January 17th
(+170) Cardinals at (-200) Rams (-4, o/u 49.5)
The Story: The Rams blew a 17-point lead to the Niners in Week 18 and their shot at the #2 seed with it. However, they still get to host at least one home game in the playoffs as they welcome the Cardinals to town again. Arizona has hit the skids big time after starting the season 7-0. They are 4-6 since then and have just one win in their last five games, including a loss to the Rams. They were never in danger of missing the playoffs, but they aren’t playing their best football heading into the rubber match with the Rams.
The Matchup: These teams split the season series with each team winning on the road. The Cards controlled the NFC and the division for much of the season but their late stumbles opened the door for the Rams. A big part of that was injuries as Arizona lost DeAndre Hopkins for the year and J.J. Watt was thought to be gone for the season but is eyeing a possible return for this Wild Card game. The Rams lost Robert Woods for the season but picked up Odell Beckham Jr. who had filled in nicely. The Cards never really replaced the production they lost and it showed.
The injury report could be better for Arizona right now as James Conner has not practiced this week with a rib injury, Chase Edmonds has been limited by a rib and toe injury, and 4th string RB Jonathan Ward hasn’t practiced either with a knee injury. Rookie WR Rondale Moore is getting in some limited practice and they could sure use him after missing a few games and DEs Jordan Phillips and Zach Allen are both getting limited practices. Rams WR Van Jefferson is currently questionable with a shoulder injury after Thursday’s practice and S Tyler Rapp hasn’t practiced due to a concussion which led to the re-signing of former Rams’ Pro Bowl S Eric Weddle. It remains to be seen how that plays out but LA is in a better position roster-wise right now.
These are both Top-10 offenses but the Cards run the ball better thanks, in part, to their QB Kyler Murray’s mobility. His dual-threat ability is what makes him particularly dangerous and his 423-yards rushing on the season is about 25% of their total. If Conner and Edmonds are limited, it could hurt their offense a lot. The Rams like to run the ball too but they use it to set up play-action for their pass-centric offense. Matthew Stafford’s 41-TD passes were second only to Tom Brady and he was 3rd in yardage. He does, however, have the 7th highest INT-% in the NFL among qualified passers, so he does tend to give the ball away. He would have a reasonable case for MVP in many other seasons but the competition is stiff and coming from his own teammate. Cooper Kupp’s 1,947-yards receiving led the league and also accounted for 39.8% of Stafford’s yards, Kupp’s 16-TDs were 39% of Stafford’s total. Kupp won the receiving triple crown for catches, yards, and TDs.
Both of these defenses have great players on them, but neither unit has been great as a whole. Neither finished in the Top-10 overall but the Rams did clock in at 10th in YPP allowed. Arizona has the 7th ranked passing defense on yardage but also gave up the 8th most TDs through the air. Not a great stat facing the Rams passing attack. Additionally, the Rams’ defense was 6th against the run after a rocky first half of the season and their pass defense gave up the second-fewest TDs. It seems like LA’s defense cleaned up some weak spots down the stretch. The scoring offense and defense is basically a push.
The Verdict: The Rams are better positioned to win at home as the matchup tends to favor them in a close game. If Arizona can run the ball effectively, it can open up Murray’s scramble ability and the passing game. If J.J. Watt returns with an impact, Stafford could wind up turning the ball over more than is comfortable. If he doesn’t, the Rams should win.
Pick: Rams | ATS: Cards +4 | O/U: Over 49.5 | Final: LAR 30 – 27 AZ
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