The Saints gave us all a Christmas present when they put the Vikings out of their misery with a 52-33 win on Friday. If you have Alvin Kamara in your fantasy playoffs, it’s your lucky day. Kamara scored six of the Saints’ seven touchdowns and that’s not a typo. He wasn’t just cleaning up at the goal line either, going for 155-yards on 22-carries. It was a relatively close game early on but once New Orleans was up at the half, they never really looked back.
Drew Brees also threw for over 300-yards but he did throw a couple of picks and didn’t get a score as he continues to recover from the rib injury. The Vikings’ defense continues to be non-existent, getting gouged for 583-total yards. Although this wasn’t one of them, Minny had a bunch of close losses and their crappy defense was a big part of that. They rank in the bottom-10 in: pass defense, run defense, scoring defense, yards against, yards-per-play, and TDs against. They are the 6th least penalized defense which means all the yardage and points they give up are simply due to poor defensive performance. If their defense had been even moderately better, they’d probably be a playoff team again this year rather than heading into the offseason with a lot of questions to answer. As it stands, Minnesota will now miss the playoffs for the second time in Kirk Cousins’ three seasons with the team and he’s going to be at the center of the conversation.
I recently read a lengthy article, from a writer who has been in and around the Vikings for a long time, about how Minnesota’s shortcomings aren’t Cousins’ fault. He’s right to a degree. Cousins is a good QB and currently has the second most TD passes in his career and the second highest QB rating of his career. There is, however, his massive contract that accounts for 10% of the Vikes’ total cap allowance and is worth a massive $62-million in dead money if he’s cut or traded. That doesn’t leave much to go around and help where it’s most needed. Riley Reiff is the highest paid offensive lineman and the only one of the team’s Top-17 contracts. Six of the top-20 contracts belong to defensive players and the highest paid safeties, Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris haven’t played up to their contracts this season. So, the bottom line is the Vikings lack of success in the Cousins era is directly tied to his deal even if he’s not the one to blame.
(9-5)Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (5-9)Detroit Lions (+10, 54)
Breakdown: As we saw last week, the Bucs are resilient with their backs to the wall and came back to beat the Falcons in the 4th quarter. That’s the Falcons’ MO, so it’s not the most impressive but a loss could have meant missing the playoffs. Detroit showed yet again that their defense is trash. The Titans blew the doors off early and put up 46 on the Lions. While the Bucs don’t have the offensive consistency Tennessee does, it should be enough to get a win. I should have stuck with my rule of not picking the Lions ATS, but for some reason I went against it and picked Detroit to cover last week only to have them get smashed. The 10-point spread seems massive, especially at home, but if the Tampa defensive front plays even moderately well it should be plenty.
Pick: Bucs
ATS: Bucs -10
Over/Under: Over 54
(5-9)San Francisco 49ers at (8-6)Arizona Cardinals (-5, 48.5)
Breakdown: Arizona has managed to slow their skid and get back on track with a pair of wins. They are still in danger of missing the playoffs if they don’t win out and despite losing to the Cowboys last week, the Niners are still a tough out. San Francisco has a good pass defense and they commit to the run. However, they may lack the kind of pass rush to truly impact Kyler Murray. If Nick Mullens can just not turn the ball over, this is a winnable game for the 49ers. The Cardinals defense hasn’t been good all season and George Kittle is supposed to be coming back for the Niners as well. If he’s on the field, it’s hard to favor Zona by 5-points. San Francisco doesn’t have much to play for other than spoiling their division rival’s playoff hopes, so this should be a good game in the desert.
Pick: Cardinals
ATS: 49ers +5
Over/Under: Over 48.5
(9-5)Miami Dolphins at (7-7)Las Vegas Raiders (+3, 48)
Breakdown: Oh, the Raiders. I don’t know what they have left to give after blowing the home game vs the Chargers last week. They’re technically still alive in the playoff hunt and the Dolphins are ahead of them so, if they can get the win, anything is possible. Miami struggles early against the Pats but wound up bouncing back thanks to the defense buying them time. The Fins are pretty good even though they’re not the most refined yet. Road wins aren’t easy to come by a good defense usually helps a lot with that. Both DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki are dealing with injuries so that could ding the Fins’ offense. They do get Myles Gaskin back which brings more depth to the running backs. Derek Carr is supposed to be playing for LV after leaving last week’s game with a groin injury but Marcus Mariota will be ready to go if needed. Of the three Saturday games, this is the toughest. If the Raiders play well, they are a handful as they are the only team to beat the Chiefs this season. However, I will defer to the better defense and that’s the Dolphins by a wide margin. Had LV managed to beat the Chargers, maybe I’d feel differently.
Pick: Dolphins
ATS: Dolphins -3
Over/Under: Under 48