Before I get to the Pats and the Colts, they’ll have a tough one to live up to because it was a wild one between the Chiefs and the Chargers to get Week 15 started on Thursday Night Football. It was kind of a low-scoring, defensive game before things exploded down the stretch and Travis Kelce eventually won it in overtime with a walk-off, 34-yard catch-and-run touchdown.
The game started with a scary injury to the Chargers’ tight end Donald Parham as he hit his helmet on the turf in the back of the endzone while trying to secure a would-be TD catch. The broadcast showed him convulsing as he was stretchered off the field but was taken to UCLA medical center (one of the Top-10 neuro-spine institutes in the country) where he was diagnosed with a concussion and is expected to be released Friday. It was a scary scene, early in the game, and it’s great news to hear that it wasn’t a more significant injury.
That injury came on a failed 4th down conversion after the Bolts had 1st & goal from the 5-yard line, and that would end up being a microcosm of the entire game. The Chargers went for it on 4th down five times, but only converting two of those, and getting stopped inside the KC 5-yard on two of those. That’s 9-points they opted to take off the board in a close game including opportunities to extend their lead on multiple occasions. It never even had to go to overtime, but Los Angeles just kept leaving the door open.
I know analytics has become the trendy thing in the NFL but this was an exceedingly winnable game that the Bolts threw away, with the division lead on the line no less. It’s one thing to play with that kind of aggression when you’re trailing or even trying to put the game out of reach, but passing up points while playing with a slim lead is greedy and it came back to bite them in the ass. When these teams met in Kansas City earlier in the year, the Chargers dominated the turnover battle. This time, when you factor in the failed conversions, it was 5-turnovers for Los Angeles in a game where they still mostly played with the lead. You can’t turn the ball over that much against a team like the Chiefs and expect to win. Ultimately, the Chargers got exactly what they asked for.
Moving on, there were two games that were slated for Saturday but the Raiders-Browns game has been moved to Monday due to the Covid outbreak going on within the Browns’ organization. The league has folded on its initial stance regarding Covid postponements which has rightfully pissed off all the opponents who aren’t having outbreaks in their respective organizations. That leaves only one game for Saturday, but it’s a damn good one.
(+115) Patriots at (-135) Colts (-2.5, o/u 45.5)
I can’t help but be a little surprised to see the (7-6) Colts as favorites as they host the (9-4) Patriots. Indy is 3-4 at home and New England is 6-0 on the road, so that says a lot about how the oddsmakers think they match up. The Colts are better than their record suggests but have made a habit of shooting themselves in the foot in close games. A win over the Pats would do a lot for their postseason hopes and establish them as one of the bigger threats in the conference.
New England has gotten back to the top of the AFC East with the league’s best defense and point differential. They are barely giving up more than 10-points-per-game during their win streak, they don’t turn the ball over, and they play complementary football that allows their rookie QB, Mac Jones, to excel. He’s clearly at the top of the rookie QB class for 2021 but he’ll be facing a formidable Colts’ defense as well.
Indy wants to play a similar style which involves heavy doses of the league’s leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor, who dominated a very good (No. 2 overall) Bills’ defense not that long ago. They have one of the best blocking O-line’s in the game and it shows as they lead the league in yards-per-carry and have the 9th best sack percentage against. The Pats’ defense is excellent in pass defense (3rd) but not nearly as good in run defense (18th) giving up 4.4-YPC, so look for Taylor and the O-line to set the tone. It’s not like the Pats can’t run the ball, but their YPC and YPG are noticeably lower and Damien Harris is out for this one.
Both teams are in the Top-10 in both scoring defense and scoring offense, with the edge going to Indy on offense and NE on defense. All indications point to this being a close game and that’s where the Colts have struggled most. They have lost four games by one score and Carson Wentz turnovers have been a factor in those. He has mostly played pretty well, throwing 22-TDs to only 5-interceptions, but he has struggled with fumbles throughout his career and has 7 so far this season. If the Colts are going to win, Wentz cannot turn it over and he’ll be tested.
One thing to watch will be the defensive philosophies. New England has one of the best pressure ratings in the league and they don’t have to blitz that much to make it happen. The Colts have one of the lowest pressure ratings in the league and lowest blitz rates, trusting their coverage and linebacker play. However, Indy leads the league in takeaways (29). The Pats are right there with them (26), but that says a lot about personnel and how each team dedicates its resources.
It’s going to be a good one and I have to back the Colts for a number of reasons. Jonathan Taylor is the entirety of my fantasy team and I desperately need him to save me. As a Bills fan, I need and want a Patriots’ loss. Using how both of them performed against Buffalo as a measuring stick, I think the Colts can get it done as long as they don’t give the game away with turnovers.
Pick: Colts | ATS: Colts | O/U: Over 45.5 | Final: IND 26 – 20 NE
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