There is a saying that “familiarity breeds contempt” and we saw a little bit of that in a divisional round that featured some rematches of Conference Title games from recent years. As we move to this year’s Conference Championship matchups both games feature rematches of hotly contested games from the regular season.
(+285) Bengals at (-360) Chiefs (-7, o/u 54.5)
The Story: The Bengals’ train has kept rolling right into the AFC title game thanks to a last-second win on the road in Tennessee. Their impromptu run hasn’t always been pretty, but they have earned their spot. The Chiefs find themselves in the AFC Championship for the fourth time in a row thanks to a thrilling (it still hurts) overtime win over the Bills, proving once again that the road to the SB goes through Kansas City.
The Matchup: Cincy pulled off a tremendous comeback win over KC when these teams met back in Week 17. The Chiefs jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the road but the Bengals just wouldn’t go away and eventually got it to 28-17 at the half. They scored to open the 2nd half and kept the pressure on while the Chiefs’ offense seemed to be out of rhythm. With the game tied at 31-31, the Bengals were the beneficiaries of the “illegal use of hands” penalty that created an automatic first down and allowed the Bengals to kick the game-winning FG. Kansas City committed 10-penalties total which didn’t do them any favors in a game they were in a good position to win.
A massive part of the Bengals’ comeback in Week 17 was the 11-catch, 266-yard, 3-TD performance. His dominance in that game was remarkable and he and Burrow have a special bond. Chase had more receiving yards and more receiving TDs than the entire Chiefs team, and that’s saying A LOT considering who the Chiefs are.
These squads are pretty similar, predicated on a deadly passing game, solid defense, and a versatile backfield. Kansas City didn’t have the Hyphen, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or Jerrick McKinnon in that last one and both of those guys are coming off solid performances against the Bills which could prove to be massive as Bengals’ DT Larry Ogunjobi is on IR, DE Cam Sample is doubtful, and MLB Germaine Pratt is still out. On the other side of that coin, Chiefs’ star safety Tyrann Mathieu is still questionable with the concussion from last week and if he’s out, expect Burrow and Chase to test the KC secondary early and often.
Cincy managed to hold Kelce mostly in check the first time, but he reminded everyone what he was capable of last week. Tyreek Hill eventually did as well as the Chiefs star playmakers did what you’d expected and make plays in the biggest moments. I highly doubt that the moment will be too big for any of the Chiefs’ best players That question remains to be answered by the Bengals but they are playing with house money and the pressure will be on the Chiefs at home.
Cincy can look at where the Bills had success and should have reason to think they can succeed in some of the same areas vs KC. What concerns me is their pass-protection that surrendered 9-sacks against the Titans. Burrow was the second-most sacked QB in the league and although he’s a fine young player and budding superstar, he doesn’t have the escapability of a Josh Allen. Kansas City is going to apply pressure and the Bengals aren’t going to win giving up 9-sacks this time.
The Verdict: The Chiefs may be in for a bit of an emotional letdown after that incredible battle with the Bills last week, but they have the experience to fall back on and the knowledge that they are really never out of it. That said, it’s tough to see them as touchdown favorites here. Cincy can play and if they do everything right, it’s not going to be an easy game for the defending AFC Champs.
Pick: Chiefs | ATS: Bengals +7 | O/U: Over 54.5 | Final: KC 36 – 31 CIN
(+155) 49ers at (-180) Rams (-3.5, o/u 45.5)
The Story: The 49ers continued to be the Packers’ playoff kryptonite, coming from behind in dramatic fashion, in the snow, to win it on a last-second FG by Robbie Gould. San Francisco almost missed the playoffs altogether but finds itself in a familiar spot. The Rams had some drama of their own after blowing a 27-3 lead in the second half against Tom Brady and the Bucs in Tampa Bay. Fortunately for LA, the Bucs defense couldn’t quite get on the same page with guarding Cooper Kupp and he picked up 64-yards on two plays to set up Matt Gay for the game-winning FG. Ousting Brady was a big deal but the Niners have owned the Rams for the past 3 years.
The Matchup: These teams have already met twice this season, and the 49ers have won them both. First, it was a 31-10 drubbing in Santa Clara and then the comeback from 17-0 to win in Los Angeles to secure their playoff spot. It’s not just this season either. The 49ers have won six straight against the different iterations of McVay’s Rams, dating back to 2019. Even though this is only his second winning season as the head coach in SF, Kyle Shanahan just knows how to deal with the Rams.
San Francisco likes to play smash-mouth football, on both sides of the ball, and that throws a wrench into the well-oiled offensive machine that is the Rams offense. McVay’s offense has always liked the play-action but the 49ers’ defense can take away the run and pressure the passer, which we have seen work against two of the league’s top offenses in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Despite Jimmy G being on the receiving end of the media criticism while Matthew Stafford ascends, it’s not that simple. Stafford is 1-5 in his career vs the 49ers including the two losses this season. Say what you want about who’s better but, in those two games, it’s hard to say that Stafford has been better. In the two games, he’s 47/73 for 481-yards with 4-TDs, 4-INTs, and 7-sacks while Jimmy G is 38/51 for 498-yards with 3-TDs, 2-INTs, and 4 -sacks. Garoppolo is winning the exchange. It’s tough to beat a team three times in a row, let alone seven straight, especially when it’s competitive, but it still does happen more often than not. Conventional wisdom suggests that the Rams are eventually going to get one back in this rivalry and they have the weaponry on both sides of the ball to get it done.
Cooper Kupp has had an amazing season and he’s coming off another massive game where he posted 9-catches for 183-yards and a TD against the Bucs. Kupp has also balled out against the 49ers, posting 18-catches for 240-yards and a TD in their two meetings this season. You have to expect to some extent that he is going to get his, but the road to victory will be decided by Stafford, Odell Beckham Jr., and the Rams’ defense more than Kupp’s stat line.
As good as Kupp has been in this series, Deebo Samuel has been feasting on the Rams defense even more. In their 2 games, Deebo Samuel has 277-yards and 3-TDs, coming out of the backfield and working on the outside as a receiver. He is also 1/1 with a 24-yard TD pass. His physicality and versatility make the 49ers more complicated to defend than they may look on paper. George Kittle is a fantastic blocker and receiving tight which opens up the 49ers zone run scheme and their ability to utilize Samuel in the run game. Looking at the Green Bay game, in the freezing snow, like that performance defines their offense, is a mistake.
Both teams are as healthy as possible at this stage in the playoffs and there are no surprises that popped up on the injury report. Both teams are coming off thrilling, emotional wins against two of the game’s greatest QBs in Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady and neither can afford a letdown.
The Verdict: The 49ers have dominated this season series over the past three seasons, mostly because they run the ball (146-yards/game vs the Rams this season) well and they stuff the run (58-yards/game allowed vs the Rams this season). Getting Cam Akers back was a nice boon for the LAR offense but he fumbled twice against the Bucs and put that game in jeopardy, so it’ll be very interesting to see his usage. If the Rams can’t change the narrative on the run, I don’t see where things are any different. Plus, almost the exact same 49ers team was 7-minutes away from winning the Super Bowl against the Chiefs two seasons ago, so they actually have the experience edge.
Pick: 49ers | ATS: 49ers +3.5 | O/U: Under 45.5 | Final: SF 23 – 20 LAR
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