(#5 NFC) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (#1 NFC) Green Bay Packers (-3.5 51.5)
Breakdown: Tom Brady did it again and finds himself on the verge of his 10th Super Bowl appearance with the Bucs’ 30-20 win over the Saints. While Brady wasn’t spectacular, he’s got Tampa playing well at the right time of year as they head into Lambeau to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers who handled the best defense in the league with relative ease, beating the Rams 32-18. So, here we are with Brady vs Rodgers, for somehow only the 4th time in their careers and more than a trip to the Super Bowl at stake.
Obviously, both guys want another chance to hoist the Lombardy Trophy but Brady is the measuring stick of success for all other quarterbacks. These two had split their two games while TB12 was still on the Patriots, but Brady gained the upper hand when their teams met earlier this season in Tampa Bay. Green Bay was undefeated at the time and they rolled into Raymond James Stadium with plenty of confidence. Rodgers had things in gear early as the Packers went down the field and kicked a field goal on their opening drive. The defense forced a quick 3 & out from the Bucs and Rodgers led the Pack on another lengthy scoring drive that ended with an Aaron Jones touchdown to put them up 10-0. The Tampa offense would get stifled again, punt the ball back to GB early in the 2nd quarter, and it looked like the Pack was going to cruise to an easy victory. Looks can be deceiving.
Green Bay was looking to throw to start their 2nd quarter and, after a couple of incompletions, Jamel Dean jumped a flat route, intercepted Rodgers, and returned it for an easy TD. So it was 10-7, the Packers’ arrogance had cost them but it was time to get back on track and regain control of the game, right? Wrong. On the next drive, Rodgers tried to force a quick throw to Davante Adams but safety Mike Edwards, who has barely played this season, read the route, picked off the pass, and almost returned that one for a TD as well. Ronald Jones II converted the score for the Bucs on the next play. After a dominant 1st quarter on both sides of the ball, just like that, Tampa seized a 14-10 lead and never looked back. The Packers folded and would never respond, going 3 & out five times on their final eight drives, as the Bucs would go on to win 38-10.
The sudden turnaround and eventual one-sided smashing were due, in large part, to the Bucs’ defense, but that wasn’t the only game this season where they’ve gone in the tank. Two weeks later, the Packers were at home vs the Vikings who were 1-5 at the time and found themselves tied 14-14 at the half. The Vikes scored on their first two possessions of the 2nd half and Green Bay turned the ball over on downs twice before scoring a late TD. Their final try ended when Rodgers was sacked, fumbled, and Minnesota recovered. Rodgers didn’t play poorly but he had also fumbled earlier in the game but had it reversed due to a penalty on Minny. This was also the game where Dalvin Cook roasted the Packers’ defense by land, by air, and by sea if he could have, for 4-TDs. Green Bay was still 5-2 at the time but there was a pattern emerging.
Three weeks later the Packers were 7-2 on the road at the 6-3 Colts, leading 28-14 at halftime when the wheels came off. Indy stormed the gates in the second half and Green Bay’s offense went in the tank again, managing only a field goal while going 3 & out twice, fumbling twice, and turning the ball over on downs. They even fumbled on their final possession again which opened the door for the Colts to win it with a field goal. Rodgers stat line looked good on paper and Adams had a strong day too, but Indy shut down the run game and the results speak for themselves.
Over the course of six weeks, Green Bay had lost half of their games and they lost them all in the same way. Of course, they went on win six straight games to close out the season but only one of those was against a team that ended the season with a winning record and none of them had particularly stout defenses. The win over the Rams in the divisional round was a good sign for the Packers, but Aaron Donald was also ineffective playing with a rib injury and the Rams’ offense doesn’t exactly strike fear into anyone. So, that brings us full circle back to the task at hand.
The Bucs have the #1 rush defense in football for the second season in a row, stuffing the run is what they do. They didn’t allow Alvin Kamara to kill them in the last matchup vs the Saints and they held the Packers under 100-yards on the ground in their last meeting. Green Bay averaged 132-yards-per-game rushing but they barely broke 100-yards once and averaged less than 90-YPG in those three losses. Tampa Bay is equipped and accomplished at stopping the run more so than any other team the Packers have faced this season. So, even though the numbers would suggest a decided advantage for GB on the ground, I don’t trust it. Plus, the Bucs get after the quarterback too. Here’s a look at some of the Advanced Defensive Metrics:
| Bucs’ Rank | Advanced Defense | Packers’ Rank |
| 4th (7.6-yards) | Avg. Depth of Target | 7th (7.7-yards) |
| 5th (39%) | Blitz % | 22nd (24.7%) |
| 7th (10.6%) | Hurry % | 24th (8.2%) |
| 3rd (10.7%) | QB Knockdowns | 29th (6.7%) |
| 3rd (27.2%) | Pressure % | 26th (20.9) |
| 4th (48) | Sacks | 11th (41) |
When you look at the other side of the ball, Adams has a strong claim as the league’s best receiver. While he may be the best WR on the field, the next three best all wear red and pewter for the Bucs so I’d say Tampa has the better receiver group. Just take a look at Tyler Johnson’s fantastic 3rd down grab against the Saints, he’s 5th on the depth chart making catches like that while I’ve already seen Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling drop some routine passes. Lazard had the big 58-yard TD but, even with that, he didn’t break 100-yards receiving. Both he and Valdes-Scantling each saw 8-targets vs the Rams but only hauled in half those (four each). When it comes down to it, I’d rather rely on the Bucs’ receiving corps because of their depth and diversity at the position.
Now, we all know Rodgers had a masterful, MVP caliber season and I’m not attempting to sell him short. He likely had the best year of his career and is deserving of the accolades, but Brady wasn’t too far behind.
| Tom Brady | Stat Comparison | Aaron Rodgers |
| 4,633 | Passing Yards | 4,299 |
| 40 | Passing TDs | 48 |
| 12 | Interceptions | 5 |
| 65.7 | Completion % | 70.7 |
| 6.60% | TD % | 9.10% |
| 2.00% | INT % | 1.00% |
| 21(143) | Sacks (Lost Yards) | 20(182) |
| 3.30% | Sack % | 3.70% |
| 102.2 | QB Rating | 121.5 |
| 72.5 | Total QBR | 84.3 |
| 289.6 | YPG | 268.7 |
| 11.6 | YPC | 11.6 |
| 3 | 4th Qtr. Comebacks | 1 |
| 3 | Game-Winning Drives | 2 |
The things that stand out the most for me are the sack yardage and the comebacks. Brady gets sacked less often and loses less yardage when he does go down. That tells me his sacks aren’t drive-killers as often. Considering the year Rodgers has had, you’d expect him to have more signature moments but his two game-winning drives reinforce my position that GB doesn’t play well from behind. If the game is close down the stretch, Brady had three game-winning drives during the season and just had another one against the Saints’ Top-10 defense last week. If I’m the Packers, the last thing I want to see is Brady with the ball and the game in the balance.
For me, this game ultimately comes down to how the Bucs handle the weather conditions at Lambeau Field. Brady is experienced and has played well in the snow before, but it’s tough to tell how a bunch of guys who’ve played their careers in Florida is going to respond to the blistering cold. Even if the temperature doesn’t have a direct effect, we saw what the snow did to the Titans a couple of weeks ago. They didn’t have the right cleats, and the Packers ran wild on them. It’s going to be on Tampa’s equipment team to make sure they have what they need to mitigate the effects of the weather. No matter what, we’re in for a good game.
*(Injury Update: Buccaneers’ coach Bruce Arians said Friday that Antonio Brown is OUT for Sunday’s game with a knee injury. Defensive tackle Vita Vea has been activated. Vita Vea has been out since week five with a broken line and will bolster an already dominant defensive line.)*
Pick: Bucs
ATS: Bucs +3.5
Over/Under: Under 51.5