It’s Victory Monday and the Bills are on top of the AFC East once again, controlling their own destiny, with a 33-21 win over the Patriots in Foxborough.
Bills vs Pats is the rivalry in the AFC East and it intensified this season as New England escaped Buffalo with that bad-weather win back in Week 13. Without the 40-mph freezing winds, the Bills mostly controlled the whole game playing from ahead. That was the plan last time out, but they couldn’t cash in field position or red zone trips given the conditions. That wouldn’t be the case a second time.
Buffalo struck first, 3 & outing the Pats on the game’s opening drive and responding with a 13-play, 61-yard drive, capped off by an Isaiah McKenzie TD catch from Josh Allen. That gave the Bills the score and possession advantage, which is exactly how they wanted to play this New England team. It wasn’t the end of the day for McKenzie either, who had a fantastic game in the absence of Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley, going for 11-catches for 125-yards and that TD. It was great to see his full skill set getting utilized and I’ll touch on that again in a bit.
New England did respond with a Damien Harris TD to tie the game, and he certainly carried the Pats with 103-yards and all three of their TDs. However, one-dimensional football rarely works. Despite the score, the Bills were right were where they wanted to be as long as they kept their foot on the gas and maintained the possession advantage and that’s exactly what they did, adding a FG to make it 10-7. Micah Hyde picked off Mac Jones (for the first time) three plays later and set the Bills up with excellent field position.
Buffalo started the drive in FG range and drove it down to the 1-yard line where they faced a 4th & 1. These kinds of situations have caused the Bills some headaches this season, but it was the perfect situation to go for it and they had the right play called but Emmanuel Sanders uncharacteristically dropped it. Sean McDermott has clearly been hearing the noise surrounding his conservative decisions and decided to put that to bed. Despite not converting, NE was pinned in their end zone and quickly went 3 & out which set up the Bills with another shot at points with about 3-minutes left in the half. They didn’t miss a second time as Allen quickly led them into the red zone and found Stefon Diggs on a laser for the TD. They’d carry that 17-7 lead to the half and never look back.
The Bills got the ball to start the second half and they added another field goal to extend the lead to 20-7. New England responded with a nice, but very long drive that essentially consumed the rest of the 3rd quarter. While they did cut the lead to 20-14, they were banking heavily on getting a key stop and winning with maybe only one more possession. That’s a lot to ask of a rookie QB against one of the league’s elite defenses.
Buffalo responded with a TD drive, capped off by a TD run from Devin Singletary. Although the numbers aren’t eye-popping, Motor has been putting in work lately and he averaged more than 4.5-yards-per-touch on Sunday. Circling back to using players’ skill sets to their full advantage, Brian Daboll called a great game that featured a lot of motion for McKenzie and also featured Singletary in the passing game. In a strange way, the lack of Davis and Beasley helped Daboll streamline his approach and it worked out very nicely. Ultimately, the Bills fell right in the “Goldilocks Zone” for their optimal balance at 65% pass – 35% run. It was no surprise to see Allen’s legs weaponized in the designed run game either, something that was completely absent in the first meeting between the teams.
The Pats got their TD to cut it to 26-21 with about 7:30 remaining in the game but their defense hadn’t shown much ability to stop the Bills’ offense. Inside 5-minutes, Buffalo was once again faced with a 4th & 1, and McDermott could have opted for a long FG try but he showed faith in his offense and defense and put the ball in Allen’s capable hands. Besides throwing for 314-yards, and 3-TDs, Allen added 64-yards rushing and none were more important than the eight he picked up here (above). You can watch the play for yourself and tell me he doesn’t belong in the Pro Bowl. The Bills would cash in the drive with another top-tier QB play from Allen to Dawson Knox for the TD (below).
Up 12-pts, just outside the two-minute warning, it was all but over. New England was desperate and, facing a 4th & 10 with the final stand on the line, Mac Jones was picked off by Micah Hyde once again. The Bills took a knee and left the field with the win and the AFC East lead.
Leslie Frazier deserves credit for getting his guys ready for this one, especially after the treatment they got from the media after the first matchup and the egregious snubs for the Pro Bowl. Buffalo still showed some moments of over-commitment against the run but mostly played a stellar game. They surrendered only 288-yards of total offense, forced two turnovers, and held the Pats to 1/10 on 3rd down.
Performance Grade: A
Buffalo will host the Falcons in a very winnable Week 17 matchup, but they can’t afford to take any game lightly at this point. Atlanta is 7-8 and very much alive in the NFC playoff hunt, so they are dangerous even though my eyes and my gut tell me that the Bills are a bad matchup for them. However, when you disrespect your opponent, you disrespect yourself. Everything the Bills want is still right in front of them, now they just have to go take it.