Coming off a frustrating 14-10 loss at the hand of the hated Patriots on Monday Night, the Bills left us with a lot of questions and a certain portion of the “fan” base in a predictable tailspin. While I’m sure that wasn’t how any of us wanted to spend our Monday night, it’s far from the panic-room disaster some are making it out to be.
Members of Bills Mafia that are decidedly “Team Dome” will have more fuel for the fire after Buffalo’s offensive struggles in the freezing wind and snow. Playing in the elements certainly has its charms but, let’s be honest, the current Bills team isn’t constructed to play in bad conditions. That isn’t to say that they are incapable of doing so, despite what we saw Monday night, but bad weather doesn’t do them any favors. New England, on the other hand, is built to play in bad weather and we saw that up close and personal with their dominant offensive line play and run game.
Before I go any further, I want to address the question Jerry Sullivan asked Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in the post-game press conference. Sullivan’s full question was, “It’s been 40-years since a team won running that few times in a game, I mean passing that few times, is that embarrassing?” First of all, that question is loaded with Sullivan’s own opinion of how Hyde and Poyer should feel. Secondly, his intent is pretty clearly inflammatory as he fumbles over his words while trying to get out what he perceives as a gotcha question. Third, Hyde and Poyer aren’t primarily responsible for run defense. They aren’t even secondarily responsible, they’re safeties. It’s literally in their job title to be the last line of defense. It’s the equivalent of asking the receivers if they are embarrassed by the run game. Lastly, it’s a dead-end yes or no question.
It’s clear that the intent of Sullivan’s question was to try and get the two Bills’ captains to throw their teammates, on the defensive line and the linebacker group, under the bus. He should know the caliber of player he’s talking to and that it’s a question they can’t answer because they are good teammates. So, Sullivan is either too dumb to know he’s asking a completely dead-end question or he was intentionally being a prick to elicit a response, and he got a response. Micah and Jordan should have just said, “No. That’s a dumb fucking question. Next,” and moved on because ultimately, Sullivan got the sort of attention he clearly wanted. It’s just sad to see how many Bills fans felt the question was good or fair when it was neither. It’s simply bad journalism and anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they are talking about. Okay, back to the game.
The Bills’ defense gave up only 14-points on 241-yards total, which should be enough for Buffalo to get a W. However, the vast majority of that came on the ground which is what led to the Sullivan situation. The game turned on Damien Harris’ 64-yarder in the first quarter after some unforced errors by the Bills’ offense gave New England the ball. There was some over-commitment, what could have been a hold that wasn’t called, and Hyde slipped a bit on the back end trying to cut back. Aside from that one big mistake, Buffalo only allowed 158-yards on 45-carries. That’s 3.5-YPC and that’s nothing to be ashamed of or embarrassed about. My biggest issue comes more from the lack of adjustments by Sean McDermott, Brian Daboll, and Leslie Frasier in the second half than it does from one broken play in the first quarter.
By the time the 3rd quarter rolled around, it was clear that New England had no interest in throwing the ball. They threw three passes the whole game and were essentially telegraphing the run on every play. Despite stacking the box with eight and nine guys defensively, the defensive mentality was still pretty conservative until they desperately needed a stop in the 4th quarter. Matt Milano came up with some big-time attitude plays in the clutch, but Buffalo should have been blitzing much more frequently. Tremaine Edmunds was playing very conservative in the middle and his hesitancy allowed a lot of carries to reach that second level. I’m not sure exactly what was going on there, but it wasn’t a good look. It wasn’t just the defensive side where the Pats controlled the line of scrimmage either. The Bills’ offense struggled to find consistency behind an offensive line that continues to struggle.
Just to be clear about one thing. Josh Allen was incredible, given the circumstances, even though the stat sheet won’t throw it. Some of the throws he made in that freezing wind were astonishing. The TD pass to Gabriel Davis and the deep shot that bounced just off Stefon Diggs’ arm as he had difficulty tracking it in the wind were both insane throws. Even the balls that Dawson Knox couldn’t quite haul in were great throws in those conditions. The hand that Knox broke earlier in the season is still clearly not 100% yet and it was bothering him in the freezing conditions. The Pats defenders did a very good job contesting those throws as well. Despite reasonable success in bad weather, it seemed like Buffalo didn’t trust that they could throw it until it was very late in the game. The biggest advantage they had was Josh Allen and the ability to throw a little in the wind but were very conservative about it.
Given the weather, I could maybe understand not wanting to throw the ball unless you have to. However, Allen is still the Bills’ biggest asset and you would think that designed runs for him would be a big part of the offensive game plan, but you’d be wrong. Maybe it’s because he’s been a little too eager to keep it on RPOs this season and tried handing some more of those off to the backs, but there should have been some wildcat-style run plays sent in for this type of game. He did have 6-carries for 39-yards. Two of those were pretty big plays but it just made us all wonder why that wasn’t a bigger part of the game plan, especially with the passing threat very much alive. I’m just hoping the coaching staff and the offense can learn from it all and make the necessary adjustment before time runs out on the season.
It’s not like the Pats are a bad team. They have won seven in a row for a reason and we saw that on full display. What stings the most is how winnable of a game it was. The wasted opportunities on the first two possessions (Knox drop, Breida fumble) forced them to play from behind and that certainly wasn’t the plan. Even more frustrating, the late-game red zone woes were massive. A wasted time-out followed by a sack led to a missed FG and then the costly Knox false start led to a turnover on downs.
Unforced errors seem to be a pretty consistent theme in the Bills’ losses. Aside from the Colts game, Buffalo’s other four losses are by a combined 17-points and I don’t know if that makes them hurt more or less. Even the Indy game had some huge mistake early that allowed that game to get out hand. I still believe that if they can get out of their own way, the Bills are a very good team.
Performance Grade: C
Things don’t get any easier in Week 14 as the Bills head to Tampa Bay to take on Tom Brady and the defending champion Bucs. Based on what we’ve seen from both teams lately, it’s difficult to think Buffalo is going to go on the road and win against a team that’s dominating on the ground on both sides of the line and has Brady under center. Anything is possible but I’m more so looking to see how they respond to this last loss. If the Bills can play their best, they’ll have a chance and even if they lose that way, I just don’t want to see them beat themselves again.