The Buffalo Bills’ season and playoff run came to a disappointing end once again, this time at the hands of the defending AFC Champion Bengals, 27-10.
It is a bitter pill to swallow for a third year in a row, and maybe even more so this time because there is no mistaking what happened on that field. The Bengals more-or-less dominated and bullied the Bills on both sides of the ball. The unfortunate reality for me and the Bills Mafia is that Buffalo is farther away from Super Bowl contention than we wanted to acknowledge.
I have raised concerns about their offensive efficiency all season, especially since I have been tracking the details more closely, but it was a major red flag after the Miami game in the Wild Card round that the Bills barely escaped.
In that game, they had 16 total possessions but only scored on six of those. That’s just 37.5% scoring efficiency. Against the Patriots in Week 18, their offense only scored three times on nine possessions, 33%. It was slightly better against Chicago the week before, scoring five times on 12 possessions (41.6%), but they still had 3 turnovers in that game as well. The prior games against the Dolphins and the Jets weren’t significantly better either.
| Drive # | Start Pos. | 1st Play | Comp. | Pass ATT | Pass YDS | Sacks | Sack YDS | Scram. | Scram. YDS | Carries | Rush YDS | Plays | Total YDs | Outcome | Score | TOP | 1st Down Runs | Penalties | Pen. Yards |
| 1 | Own 24 | pass | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | Punt – 3 & out | 0-7 | 0:01:38 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Own 25 | Rush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | Punt – 3 & out | 0-14 | 0:01:36 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Own 25 | Pass | 5 | 6 | 66 | 1 | -3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 15 | 85 | TD – Allen | 7-14 | 0:07:41 | 1 | 1 | -10 |
| 4 | Own 20 | pass | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 7-17 | 0:01:09 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| HALF | Avg. Own 23.5 | 1/3 | 10 | 17 | 111 | 1 | -3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 135 | 1 score, 3 Punts | 7-17 | 0:12:04 | 2 | 2 | -10 |
| 5 | Own 28 | run | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 64 | FG | 10-17 | 0:07:18 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Own 12 | pass | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | Punt – 3 & out | 10-24 | 0:01:15 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | Own 25 | pass | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 64 | TO Downs | 10-27 | 0:03:59 | 0 | 1 | -5 |
| 8 | Own 10 | pass | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 53 | INT | 10-27 | 0:01:30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2nd HALF | Avg. Own 18.75 | 1/3 | 15 | 25 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 21 | 35 | 189 | 1 FG, 2 TOs, Punt | 10-27 | 0:14:02 | 1 | 1 | -5 |
As you can see here, the Bills scored just twice on eight drives. The Bills had more punts and more 3 & outs than they had scoring drives, and they had an equal amount of turnovers as scores. That’s why I hated that Miami game plan last week so much because it doesn’t value possessions as you need to in order to beat the Bengals. Against a Miami team on their 3rd string QB, they narrowly spaced and it bit them in the ass on this one.
The Bills were supposed to have a major advantage with three starting O-linemen for the Bengals being injured, but it was Cincy playing bully ball at the line of scrimmage. The Bengals won the trenches with relative ease and the Bills only managed one sack and two tackles for loss on the day…and all of that came from their All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano. The Bills’ defense couldn’t find its footing early on…both literally and figuratively…and that really set the tone for the game.
Ja’Marr Chase was quite literally wide open for a catch and run that put the first points of the game on the board, but Cincinnati also dominated the ground game where they punished the Bills for 172 rushing yards. Given the conditions, it was a wise choice and you would think the Bills would try to run the ball themselves. You’d be wrong.
Buffalo only gave their running backs 11 total carries, and even if you include Allen’s scrambles as “runs” (which I don’t) Buffalo only had 19 carries. Joe Mixon alone had 20 for the Bengals. Long story short, the Bills were incredibly predictable and it allowed the Bengals to scheme up pressure on Allen all day.
While only sacked once technically, the Bengals compromised the pocket regularly and Allen was well off target often as a result. Stefon Diggs was visibly upset on the sidelines and it’s hard to blame him when he was targeted 10 times but only caught 4 passes. Allen missed him a lot and part of that was the Bills’ play designs and the other part was a Bengals team that figured them out quickly.
I preach balance and I bring it up a lot. I have been doing so since last season and it came up a lot under Ken Dorsey’s playcalling too because I have yet to see the Bills win a game where they call at least 50 pass plays. I have highlighted the Goldilocks zone as approximately 65% Pass/35% Run at the most. Buffalo was 33% run against the Dolphins and called 48 pass plays and barely escaped with a win. Against the Bengals, Buffalo called 47 plays but it was 74.6% of their total play calls. There is no balance there. You can’t tell a team that’s as good and well-coached as the Bengals that you are going to throw it 3 out of every 4 plays and expect to find success there.
The Bills went through a ton of adversity this season both on and off the field, and that stuff takes a toll. There was a mass shooting, then the death of Dawson Knox’s brother, then the Micah Hyde season-ending injury, then the Josh Allen elbow injury, then Von Miller tore his ACL, then Damar Hamlin emergency, and then a blizzard swept through town, and took a lot of lives in the process. It was a ton for that city and I bet it was exhausting, both mentally and physically.
I am not looking to make excuses. The Bengals were the better team and they left no doubt about that. The Bills need to reassess their approach and their goals for the future if they really, truly want to make a Super Bowl run. That said, I do have sympathy for the team and the town with everything they have been through and I know it’s especially rough to have gone through all that just to wind up back here again. However, once everyone can take a step, what the Bills managed to do given those circumstances is still pretty damn impressive. Go Bills!
Thanks for coming along on this journey with me. I don’t know if I will keep doing this segment next year as the readership isn’t particularly strong and it is time-consuming. I may just move it over to the Buffalo Blues Podcast exclusively. The good news is, time should open up and I’ll be able to get back to more movie stuff. Take care!
Thanks for reading! I still believe word of mouth is the best way to help, so if you enjoy what I’m doing, please tell somebody. And if you have a comment, I’d love to hear it! Liking, subscribing, and sharing go a long way too. And, as usual, be well, stay safe, and Go Bills!