(#2 AFC) Buffalo Bills at (#1 AFC) Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 54)
Breakdown: In the matchup that everyone wanted to see, the Buffalo Bills take to the road for the first time this postseason as they head into Kansas City to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs.
There was a black cloud hanging over this game as Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes remained in concussion protocol following the team’s win over the Cleveland Browns in the divisional round. However, on Friday afternoon, he told reports that he had been cleared from the NFL’s protocols. I’m pretty sure he’s not the one who gets the final say on that but let’s just assume (like we knew all along) that he’s going to play. As a Bills fan, I don’t want to hear any excuses so I’m glad Mahomes will be out there.
When these two teams met back in Week 6, it wasn’t one-sided even though it wound up being a two-possession win for the Chiefs, 26-17. Buffalo was coming off a lopsided loss to the Titans and, if I remember correctly, wide receiver John Brown was dealing with a knee injury that was aggravated during the KC game and forced him out early. Linebacker Matt Milano was also injured and didn’t play and I believe cornerback Levi Wallace was missing as well. All things considered, the Bills hung in there and didn’t let Tyreek Hill and Mahomes kill them, but Travis Kelce did have a pair of TDs. It was a calculated approach to mitigate damage through the air, which they mostly did by baiting the Chiefs into running. The problem was, Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a monster game as a result and it allowed the Chiefs to move the chains consistently and made things fairly easy on Mahomes, who finished the night 21/26 for 225-yards and 2-TDs.
At the time, I was very critical of Bills’ defensive coordinator Leslie Frasier for his lack of defensive diversity. His gameplan worked to keep Buffalo in the game but there was nothing the Chiefs’ offense couldn’t diagnose and Mahomes burned the (limited) blitz attempts every time. Things have changed a lot since then, and the Bills’ defense has had an excellent second half of the season.
All those injured players are back for Buffalo and the Chiefs are dealing with injuries to the Hyphen, that have had him sidelined since Week 16, and a LeVeon Bell knee injury that kept him out of practice heading into this rematch. Ex-Buffalo Bill Sammy Watkins is also questionable with a calf injury that’s kept him out since Week 17. Corners Basahud Breeland and Rashad Fenton are also questionable while LB Willie Gay is out. Receiver Gabriel Davis and defensive tackle Vernon Butler are questionable for the Bills, but they’re the much healthier team this time around. They have also improved a lot since that game.
The loss back in Week 6 feels like an eternity ago. However, it let Buffalo know the level they needed to play at and they went on a tear from that point, winning 9 of their final 10 games. The lone defeat came on a desperation heave known as the “Hail Murray” but, sometimes, what can you do? How about close out the season with six straight wins and carry an 8-game win streak into the Conference Championship game? Check!
When the Pegulas took over ownership and brought in Sean McDermott and Brando Beane, it was the beginning of a culture shift with one goal in mind, a Super Bowl victory. With Patrick Mahomes firmly entrenched as the future of the NFL, Buffalo’s road to their ultimate franchise goal was always going to go through Kansas City. It’s all part of the plan. Had they held on to their 16-0 lead last postseason in Houston, they’d have faced KC in the divisional round then. These teams were always going to collide in a meaningful playoff game, it was only a matter of time.
A big part of the reason the Bills are in this position is because of the playoff loss to the Texans and what it did to Josh Allen. Third-year progression is typically the toughest leap for young QBs to make, but Allen put in the work during the offseason and improved drastically. He made significant improvements in passing yardage, completion percentage, TD passes, interceptions, sacks, and QB rating without seeing a massive decline in his run-threat ability. Looking at them side-by-side, Allen’s 2020 campaign was very much on par with Mahomes.
| Josh Allen | Stat Comparison | Patrick Mahomes |
| 4,544 | Passing Yards | 4,740 |
| 69.20% | Completion % | 66.30% |
| 284 | Pass YPG | 316 |
| 37/10 | Pass TD/INT | 38/6 |
| 6.50% | TD% | 6.50% |
| 1.70% | INT% | 1.00% |
| 26/159 | Sacks/Yards Lost | 22/147 |
| 4.30% | Sack % | 3.60% |
| 107.2 | QB Rating | 108.2 |
| 81.6 | Total QBR | 82.9 |
| 11.5 | YDS Per Completion | 12.2 |
| 8 | Rushing TDs | 2 |
| 9/8 | Fumbles/Lost | 5/3 |
| 2 | 4th Qtr. Comebacks | 3 |
| 3 | Game-Winning Drives | 3 |
Statistically, they line up pretty evenly, but the concerning numbers are the turnovers for Allen. Although he’s the slightly more accurate passer this season, and the offensive output is comparable, it’s concerning that Allen turns the ball over twice as often. Mahomes is still a little better at the subtleties of the position and you certainly don’t want to give him any extra chances, especially since the Bills’ 3rd down conversion rate has plummeted in the playoffs. While Allen is a much more dangerous threat as a runner, he also gets sacked at a higher rate which also contributes to a high number of lost fumbles. Neither guy has turned the ball over in these playoffs, but Allen did get sack-fumbled in each of the Bills’ first two playoff games and Buffalo was just fortunate to recover them both.
Those moments have sprung from a very pass-centric offense that Brian Daboll is running in Buffalo. So far, it’s worked but I’ve been very concerned with his approach to closing out games. With the Bills kinda playing it by ear at the running back position, the odds are they will still be throwing it quite a lot. At this level of the game, you can’t just come out throwing on every down and let the defense pin their ears back and come after your QB. It’s almost ended in disaster twice this postseason and closing out the Chiefs will be the hardest challenge the Bills’ defense has faced this season. If Buffalo finds itself with the lead late in the 4th quarter, I sure hope Daboll has a few new wrinkles to work some kind of run game into the playcalling. Scenario management will be much more crucial down the stretch in this matchup and the Bills can’t afford to squander a possession that would have closed out the game. The last thing you want to see is Mahomes with time and a chance to win the game.
We already know these teams both have prolific offenses ranked at the top of the league, with the Bills having the edge in points while the Chiefs have the advantage in yards. However, the idiom that defense wins championships exists for a reason, so let’s take a look at how these teams stack up defensively.
| Bills | Defense | Chiefs |
| 352.5(14th) | Total YPG | 358.3(16th) |
| 232.9(13th) | Pass YPG | 236.2(14th) |
| 10.7 (9th) | Yards Per Comp. | 11.4(22nd) |
| 119.6(17th) | Rush YPG | 122.1(24th) |
| 4.6(25th) | Yards Per Carry | 4.5(17th) |
| 23.4(16th) | PPG Allowed | 22.6(11th) |
| 38(15th) | Sacks | 32(19th) |
| 72(9th) | Tackles for Loss | 47(31st) |
| 39.8%(7th) | 3rd Down % | 41%(9th) |
| 65.5%(28th) | Red Zone % | 76.6%(32nd) |
A look at the regular season numbers shows that Buffalo had the slightly better yardage numbers and had better conversion rates against, thanks to a huge edge in tackles for loss, but the Chiefs still allowed fewer points.
| Bills | Pressure Stats | Chiefs |
| 21.0%(22nd) | QB Pressure % | 24.2%(11th) |
| 7.0(1st) | Avg. Target Depth | 8.5(22nd) |
| 35.8(8th) | Blitz % | 35.6(9th) |
| 7.9(27th) | Hurry % | 8.9(22nd) |
| 8.0%(21st) | QB Knockdown % | 11.3%(4th) |
| 15.3%(2nd) | Turnover % | 13%(9th) |
When it comes to getting pressure on the opposing QB, Kansas City holds the edge even though they blitz less often. However, even with less pressure, Buffalo generates turnovers at a higher rate and commands the lowest depth of target in the league. That suggests the Bills have the most intimidating pass coverage in the league. Buffalo’s defense improved quite a bit over the second half of the season and we’ve seen how good their pass defense can be in these playoffs. They’ve only allowed 14-points on eight red-zone trips so far this postseason and they did it against two Top-10 offenses in the Colts and Ravens. Meanwhile, the Browns converted on both of their red-zone trips vs the Chiefs, so there no question whose defense is playing better right now.
This has all the makings of a great game. Two great, young QBs running two juggernaut offenses going up against capable, experienced defenses. A great Hall of Fame coach in Andy Reid taking on an up-and-coming good coach who has turned a franchise around in only a few seasons. The defending champs vs the hungry underdogs, with a Super Bowl berth at stake. I can’t wait! Go Bills!
Pick: Bills
ATS: Bills +3
Over/Under: Under 54